Jason Hahn

@hecubian_devil Isn’t the argument about who is more electable in the general election? I’d agree this polling does say something but it’s hardly strong evidence about that question.

But I keep being told she’s “electable” and has higher “candidate quality” than Abdul, how strange. It’s almost as if people have an “electable” archetype in mind, which overrides actual polling evidence right in front of their faces

@NoahTopper @vtlynch1 I don’t find your post annoying but I would agree that “dumb pipe” is meant as a technical term here and is not meant as an insult. It’s saying - just move the data from one place to another (i.e. act as a pipe) and don’t alter or analyze in any way (i.e. be dumb).

@vtlynch1 How so?

bro why is my claude agent being so mean to its subagent 😭

@MTabarrok > the decision-making process is nothing like murder In this case, the decision-making process *was* much closer to that of murder (or negligent homicide or whatever). That’s why the discussion about Musk’s actions included that language.

1. Elon's counterfactual impact on the USAID-related deaths is large, likely hundreds of thousands of people. This is very bad. 2. On this scale, i.e. the broad counterfactual impacts of US policies, this isn't a uniquely large mistake. The counterfactual deaths from coal pollution due to nuclear bans, for example, number in the tens of millions. The inventor of leaded gasoline is responsible for millions of deaths and disabilities. Slow FDA approvals have killed millions. DDT bans and slow-rolling gene-drives have arguably caused millions of malaria deaths. Not to mention all of the compounding effects of unnecessary taxes or tariffs or regulations that have delayed economic growth and invention long enough to kill millions. Norman bourlag saved a billion lives and his enemies might have killed them. These are all also really bad mistakes. It's important to count, condemn, and avoid them. But ultimately, it's not that hard to make a decision that hurts millions of people when you're setting the policy of the US government. 3. We don't usually use the language of murder and moral outrage when analyzing these decisions. I think that's a good thing because although we can think about the counterfactual impact as akin to murder, the decision-making process is nothing like murder and being "against murder" doesn't help improve these decisions at all. 4. There may also a question of moral responsibility beyond causality. It's clear that Elon's decisions led to hundreds of thousands of deaths (this is extremely bad), but a necessary piece in the causal chain is also the crumbling and corrupt African institutions who cannot otherwise provide the basic services needed to prevent these deaths. If you see some institutions as having particular responsibilities to certain people, rather than the more utilitarian obligation to all people equally, then more blame rests on these institutions than on decisions made in the US govt.

@zeynep The points I’ve seen you make so far feel targeted to those who thought AI would be taking over by now. Those beliefs never really seemed mainstream to me, though. I’d love to hear why you might think (if you do) that AI won’t be transformative in the medium term (ie 3-10 years)

What’s below: in many big moments, I found myself *way outside* almost the entire range of mainstream thought on key issues. Wasn’t unjustified. I have a similar out-of-sync feeling about almost the entire spectrum of AI arguments. Maybe I am wrong this time! Hence the question.

Three and a half years post ChatGPT and.. where’s the predicted sweeping labor market and productivity impacts? Anything big outside of software? We’re told just around the corner! Next model! Soon! Maybe. Or, maybe it’s not happening for structural reasons about generative AI.

@KP_Show I think Sharp is trying to focus on the bad drafting more than figuring out who specifically is to blame. Lynch is the GM and in theory the final say so it gets put on him. And Sharp really isn’t wrong about the bad drafting.

Here’s my biggest problem with this. Why is John Lynch the only one catching flack? Remember that the coaches get involved later on in the draft process for obvious reasons. Zoom out to when the 49ers were consistently winning. They took a RB 88th overall in ‘21. The next year they took another RB 93rd overall. Neither had NFL traits. But one rushed for 287 yards in a game and another ran for 331 yards, so they had to be good. Then in October ‘22 they realize neither can play and give up 4 picks for a do it all RB from Stanford. To me that’s the GM putting duct tape on a problem created by the head ball coach.

@JamieWhistle @sarahkahncept @TakedownMRAs Hmm.. Intentionally ignoring someone’s sincere request and treating them as if they have no agency seems pretty disrespectful. If you think society harms people by influencing them into making poor decisions, then you should work to change that but still respect those decisions.

@sarahkahncept @TakedownMRAs I’m not trying to disrespect her. I simply wish she grew up in a place and time where her gender nonconformity could be embraced and accepted and not told that it means that she is a man.

The Winter Olympics begins Friday. There is a trans identified athlete from Sweden competing in moguls. She identifies as male, completes in the female category, and has not started any medical transition. Her name is Elis Lundholm.

@tnnrnwll @SockDem_ I do basically the same. Anecdotally it certainly feels better when sleep cycle wakes me up “easy” than when apple alarm goes off or something else wakes me up.

@SockDem_ @Lib_Development In my personal experience: @sleepcycle for the app, 7.5 hours of sleep, which means eyes closed at 11:30 PM, app set for wake up 7:30–8:00 AM, and Apple alarm set for 8:00 AM. (Got a few tweets on the subject you can quickly search up, all the same.) x.com/tnnrnwll/statu…

@sportslarryk This seems silly. 49ers have been to how many super bowls and how many conf. championship games in the last couple decades? A “this getting done” attitude doesn’t help when the team’s just barely missing. A handful of plays go a different way and they’ve got 3 rings under Jed.

“I wouldn’t” is the #49ers quote of the year. Beyond the players and coaches, beyond the game plans and schemes, there has to be a driving force. Eddie was that driving force and they miss him badly. The 49ers need that element. I wish Jed would adopt that Eddie D, “this is absolutely getting done” determined mindset. It’s the necessary ingredient to winning Super Bowls. Jed, don’t be so nice and accommodating, instead crack some skulls, hold people accountable to high standards and let’s get this thing done! I miss Eddie’s passion!

@AdamDaroff @bburkeESPN @ScottBarrettDFB yep

@JasonLHahn @bburkeESPN @ScottBarrettDFB So we’re saying it was previously actually 6.5/2.5 but with average starting possession now 9 yards better, that gets it to 6.0/2.0?

While on on the topic... The kickoff rule changes have an effect on 4th down strategy, but maybe not in the way you think. It does not mean "scoring is easier so no need to gamble,"--just the opposite.

@AdamDaroff @bburkeESPN @ScottBarrettDFB Difference between the old kickoff rules and new kickoff rules (4th tweet).

@bburkeESPN @ScottBarrettDFB How did you get from 6.5/2.5 to 6.0/2.0?

@akashanav My understanding is Shanahan’s Thursday practices are tougher than any individual practice Payton runs but overall Payton’s teams would be practicing more / harder each week.

Kyle Shanahan’s philosophy is three days on, one day off in terms of practice. Wednesdays and Fridays are lighter days of practice (1.5 hour sessions?) without pads and Thursday is usually full speed. Sean Payton’s very much running tougher practices.

@CoryAgent @mattbarrows Trent Williams says hi

@mattbarrows Neither; the 49ers don’t acquire great players

Who would you rather have on your team?

@devahaz Did you think he was talking about the 2028 general election in that tweet?

Ok Nate, how long should voters give Republicans to repudiate the ICE killing of Alex Pretti?

@akashanav It’s not the substation the science is pretty clear on that please don’t feed conspiracies.

There's been 4 different coaching staffs, at least 2 different training staffs from what i've seen, roster turnover at every position. The substation expanded in 2014 and they've only had 1 season where they were healthy and they ended up losing in OT in the Super Bowl.

Digging into the #49ers' Adjusted Games Lost (AGL): 2024: 32nd 2023: 4th 2022: 24th 2021: 29th 2020: 32nd 2019: 27th 2018: 26th 2017: 22nd 2016: 24th 2015: 27th 2014: 28th 2013: 23rd They've been in the Top-10 most injured teams 10 out of 12 seasons.

@RxceBxnnon @dieter It turned out in a trip to the Super Bowl where they held the Chiefs to 19 points in regulation…

@dieter When hiring a DC, the fanbase has to remember that person will inherit the defensive assistants. Only one time did we bring someone from the outside and that was Wilks. We know how that turned out.

If the 49ers lose Robert Saleh, there are possibly three defensive coordinators available that could even be considered an upgrade: • Jim Schwartz • Raheem Morris • Sean McDermott Niners already allegedly pay Saleh the most of any DC. Cash won’t be an issue.

@BrentCGuitar @QBgami He was available to play. He came in for the second half of the last game of the season on Monday Night Football and threw a couple touchdowns to secure the win.

@QBgami Backup or injured?

Rams QB Jimmy Garoppolo just reached the 7th Conference Championship Game of his career. Across NFL history, only Tom Brady has more.

@mattbarrows last minutia minute of the season…

Somewhere in there is Brock Purdy

@Glitch__Runner @ringer @BillSimmons @CKlosterman footballperspective.com/randy-moss-jer…

Jerry Rice or Randy Moss? 🤔 @BillSimmons and @CKlosterman on what made the two receivers so special.

@nwagoner I assume Barkley’s 29 yard run at the start of the game was without West playing. Take that away and you’ve got 18 carries for 56 yards (essentially the same as with West). Not disputing your larger point but these numbers don’t really show anything.

Eagles had 19 carries for 85 yards (4.5 yards per carry) when #49ers rookie DT CJ West wasn't on the field. It was 17 carries for 55 yards (3.2 ypc) when West was on the field. When West AND Alfred Collins were on the field together, Philly had 13 carries for 38 yards (2.9 ypc). Impact from the rookie DTs has been growing.

@bykevinclark Because this is all they know* *2023 excepted

The thing I don't understand about the Niners is why, when a bunch of their best players got hurt, did they not just give up and act like winning is literally impossible and it's offensive to even ask them to win like ten other teams?