Jim Aylan

@CRUDEOIL231 How many Americans have to die in a ground war so DJT can save face

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

@decentralizedX1 @DanCollins2011 Russia and China are obviously providing targeting info

@DanCollins2011 its got to survive first. getting to super power status isnt just money in the bank its having powerful allies. they have none. Neither Russia or China are going to help them in any meaningful way.

Iran defense spending was $8b. They now will have access to $200b a year in new oil sales and transit fees. We fd around and created a regional superpower. They will most likely end up a nuclear state as well. Tehran could make a claim now as a global locus of power next to Beijing, D.C., Moscow,etc This will be an unacceptable outcome and that is why we are now in a for long, long war.

@TTL_inc @RickelKendra @chamath But they have so much of the coast and good weather

@RickelKendra @chamath They're actively k*lling their golden goose (donors) by taxing them to the point it's stifling innovation. There's only so much a company will take before they realize it's better to move to an area that rewards innovation.

California is going bankrupt before our eyes.

@PostEMTakeover @mixedupmaga @RichardHaass @NASA I think you both are probably good guys.

@mixedupmaga @RichardHaass @NASA Get a mirror. You’re the petulant child. Same as it ever was.

Totally mystifying why Trump asked for 20 minutes in prime time on the first night of Passover to deliver a nothingburger of a speech that changed not a thing. Makes no sense.

@teortaxesTex The best way to open the strait is to stop fighting and give Israel the middle finger.

Pinoys are always eager to fight China, so must be familiar with Chinese weapons that Iran uses. I suppose we've found the best candidate for opening the straight. While they still have enough fuel for their navy, they must hurry – to save themselves, and the world…

@MarkBadMan @rohanpaul_ai A worm that steals energy as it burrows into every crevice of society needs no money.

@rohanpaul_ai That’s an out right lie! Ai is not being paid a CENT! Artists that use AI are making money.

Spotify’s AI music boom is now redirecting millions of dollars away from human musicians and towards AI. The article says 34% of daily uploads are now AI-generated, or about 50,000 tracks per day, which suggests the royalty dilution problem could grow long before listeners can reliably tell what is synthetic. The basic problem is simple supply: streaming platforms split a royalty pool by share of total plays, so every stream captured by cheap AI-generated tracks slightly shrinks the payout going to songs made by people. The reported estimate from Sloptracker says more than $2.5M has already been diverted by just 50 AI artists. The deeper issue is that music platforms reward attention at scale, and AI can produce songs in huge batches with almost no recording costs, no session players, and no studio time. A human artist is limited by time, skill, and studio cost, while an AI system can generate huge volumes of passable music fast enough to flood recommendation systems, playlists, and search results. --- thecooldown .com/green-business/ai-impact-on-music-industry-artist-losses/

@rohanpaul_ai Couldn't they fix this with a non linear curve for royalties? Maybe some kind of s-curve?

@DavidJ_Cole @jessinwis @KobeissiLetter I don't think the Chinese currency thing is right, otherwise you are spot on, other than the punctuation.

@jessinwis @KobeissiLetter Lmao. The. Regime. Is. Still. In. PLACE. They’re now charging tolls to get through the Strait of Hormuz and only accepting Chinese currency. You and Israel have incentivized Iran to produce a nuclear weapon to ensure this never happens again.

SUMMARY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION: 1. The Iran War will last another "two to three weeks" 2. The US will strike Iranian power plants if no deal is reached 3. Core strategic objectives are "close to completion" in Iran 4. The US "will bring Iran back to the stone age" 5. The US will not import oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the future 6. "Iran's navy is gone and their air force is in ruins" US oil prices are surging above $103/barrel after the speech.

@Hesamation Imagine the smell.

> be Moonshot > 300 employees, avg age <30 > no departments, no titles, no KPIs > so many former CEOs and founders > 80% of company are introverts > everyone keeps slippers under desk > no bureaucratic culture > some mornings you walk in not knowing what to do > no one tells you if you’re doing well > doesn’t care about job background, care about “taste” > “if you ranked AI companies by employees who play instruments, kimi wins”

@OnchainDecoded @VentureCoinist Just hard fork it away

🔐Satoshi's answer is still the right one. The long-term fix is a soft fork to quantum-resistant signatures, and it only triggers if an attack becomes credible. On-chain, ~4M BTC sits in exposed P2PK outputs. That's the real risk surface : dormant coins, not active HODLers. 🔐Satoshi's answer is still the right one. The long-term fix is a soft fork to quantum-resistant signatures, and it only triggers if an attack becomes credible. On-chain, ~4M BTC sits in exposed P2PK outputs. That's the real risk surface — dormant coins, not active HODLers. 🔐

This is the only public comment Satoshi ever made about quantum computing risk to Bitcoin Back in 2010 a user "llama" asked what would happen if signatures were compromised due to quantum computers and whether it would make BTC worthless "True, if it happened suddenly. If it happens gradually, we can still transition to something stronger. When you run the upgraded software for the first time, it would re-sign all your money with the new stronger algorithm." - satoshi

@policytensor @imetatronink Sometimes you just don't think things through, do you?

@imetatronink They need to give the Iranians the same sort of access to their arsenal that the US gives to Israel. At the minimum, they need to agree to rearm Iran and resupply it in the event of another attack by Israel and/or the US.

@policytensor What do you propose the Chinese do?

@braelyn_ai /\b(wtf|wth|ffs|omfg|shit(ty|tiest)?|dumbass|horrible|awful| piss(ed|ing)? off|piece of (shit|crap|junk)|what the (fuck|hell)| fucking? (broken|useless|terrible|awful|horrible)|fuck you| screw (this|you)|so frustrating|this sucks|damn it)\b/

you probably dont fully understand how serious this Claude Code leak is > code copyright law has been stable since the 80s > you cannot legally copy or fork someone's code without permission (licenses) the caveat is a "clean room" build - start from scratch by people who have never seen the code. it takes too long to build a product from scratch, so it wasn't usually a problem > enter codegen > anyone with a Claude Max plan can "clean room" rebuild any repo just by pointing the agent at the tests > a few months ago, opensource repos started close-sourcing their tests > a codegen rebuild has never been challenged in court > the legal precedent would have the potential to decimate the concept of Open Source forever SO > last night > claude code leaks > Sigrid Jin "clean room" rebuilds claude code in Python > names it Claw-Code > Reminder: Anthropic sued the last open source tool that used a funny "claw" name Now? > Anthropic has the potential to sue this project and put all of software licensing and copyright law into question > Anthropic might allow corporate greed to effectively put an end to opensource software > Anthropic's corporate greed might forever kill the software community as we know it today ... now that you know how serious it could be, the best thing we can do is pressure anthropic to let it go

@thekennwakanma @gerardsans Next up, watch the CEO shit on a table

@gerardsans If you understand Anthropic, then you will understand that this is not a leak.. It was orchestrated so you talk about them 24/7.. if anyone thinks this was leaked lol, i laugh

If this is not a meme it’s peak comedy. Anthropic didn’t get hacked. They just shipped their full 57 MB Claude Code CLI source, every prompt, every system instruction, every secret, to npm. The “safety-first” $10 B lab forgot a oneline .npmignore. Proof that AI labs are now so mediocre at software engineering, the chef is literally serving the entire kitchen. When your chef is serving tables… the restaurant is cooked. 💸🔥

@EverythngRandom @shantanugoel @RBI Most likely they were storung passwords in uppercase and in the clear and now decided to upgrade to hashing them, but since they only have the uppercase version stored, they had to hash what they had when they setup the new system.

Its an upgrade. The legacy system is case-insensitive meaning Test123, TEST123, TeSt123 are all the same to current system. Each character is automatically saved as a hash (#) in uppercase. If you want to test the theory, try logging in with your current password in all caps or different combinations of caps and it should still log in.

Looks like HSBC saves passwords in plain text! Wonder how many @RBI policies they are in violation of.

@sampullara @itzKavin @championswimmer @shantanugoel @RBI Or just try both normal and toupper()

@itzKavin @championswimmer @shantanugoel @RBI they could just use a boolean for before change and after change

@championswimmer @shantanugoel @RBI Then why not force everyone to change their password? Why upgrade security and yet have a majority of their users not effectively use it?

@shantanugoel @RBI No this is probably not true. Most likely they were doing .toUpperCase() to all passwords before hashing (meaning their older API was case-insensitive), and now they are making it case sensitive so people have to manually make it uppercase when typing.

@edodreaming @GeddesLiza @robert_baiguan You think China / Russia aren't going to give them weapons in that case? Just let Iran and all that oil and control of Hormuz end up in Western hands? Not a chance.

@GeddesLiza @robert_baiguan How long before Israel bombs the train line? Sanctions are different from losing all their exports their economy will collapse. The US is a net oil exporter & natural gas prices have actually fallen which stops electricity rising. They can bring in price caps on fuel costs

To predict what will happen, let’s start by ruling out a few scenarios: 1. We are unlikely to see the use of nuclear weapons. First, Israel is unlikely to use them; the U.S. wouldn’t allow it, and more importantly, nukes wouldn’t completely eliminate Iran. Instead, it would risk a counter-strike from Iranian nuclear weapons (which they likely already possess). As for Iran, they won’t be the first to use them. There’s simply no need. We can likely rule out this worst-case, unpredictable risk. 2. The U.S. will not launch a large-scale war on Iranian mainland. They simply can’t afford it. 3. The U.S. will not retreat just yet. Many are anticipating a TACO, but taco now is meaningless. A true "TACO” would mean handing control of the Strait of Hormuz over to Iran—a "Grand TACO," if you will. It’s too early to give up. 4. Israel will not back down. Stopping now would mean all previous efforts were in vain; they won’t get another chance. 5. As long as there is no regime change, Iran will not back down either. As I’ve discussed before, since they’ve already played their biggest card—Hormuz—they won’t fold easily. Folding means certain death for top IRGC people; staying in the game at least offers a chance at survival. Once we exclude these five possibilities and establish these constraints, the path forward becomes relatively clear. First, the U.S. will likely engage in island-seizing operations, hoping to control the situation through small-scale, high-leverage ground combat. From there, three possibilities emerge: • Scenario 1: The battle goes smoothly and concludes in days. Iran is forced to the negotiating table, or regime change occurs. The U.S. quickly gains control of the situation. • Scenario 2: The fighting is grueling and protracted, but the U.S. eventually secures the objective and stabilizes the situation. • Scenario 3: The fighting is exceptionally difficult. The U.S. either fails to take the objective or takes it but finds it impossible to defend, eventually forcing a withdrawal. This would complete the "Grand TACO." Trump would shrug his shoulders and take the exit, claiming the battle was simply unwinnable. Aside from Scenario 1, both Scenarios 2 and 3 would inflict massive pain on the global economic order. I personally think scenario 3 is the most likely. Brace for impact, folks

@robert_baiguan The U.S. will do a ground invasion on Iran's mainland and Iran has no nukes.

@teortaxesTex Speak all that time, money, and effort to get one and then blow it up in the desert? Not going to happen. They aren't like the U.S. with thousands og them.

The best thing Iran can do for the region is to detonate a test nuke in the desert. Almost certain it would end the war immediately, restoring us 95% of the way to the status quo ante bellum (modulo all the deaths and destruction). Alas they haven't got one.