@PerrySolem That gates rubber factory deal is iconic. Believe it also got sideways on timing during GFC and needed to be recapped.
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Julian Scurci
23.7K posts
Julian Scurci
@JulianScurci
Real Estate Private Equity. Proptech. Husband. Twin parent. Investor. Entrepreneur. Discerning skeptic. Dismal Optimist. Avid athlete. RTs not endorsements.
San Francisco | Jersey Bred Katılım Eylül 2009
7.5K Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
random company of the day i stumbled across
"Since 1990, Cherokee [Investment Partners] has invested in more than 550 environmentally contaminated, or brownfield, real estate assets across the United States, Canada and Europe. ... with a total of five investment funds since 1996, with aggregate commitments exceeding $2 billion.
Additionally, Cherokee has managed or invested in over 70 venture companies in environmental remediation, renewable energy, waste-to-energy, energy management and other fields."
largest brownfield investor in the world, out of Raleigh NC, founded by a couple former Bain guys. pension money/institutional. Projects range from the $1b Gates Rubber Factory deal which seems like it sat forever and maybe didn't make them much money ... to "cleanup and redevelopment of a portfolio of 68 gas station pads, with extensive petroleum hydrocarbon contamination"
i suspect they have performed better on those smaller deals than, say, the 1300-acre Meadowlands project that was said to require HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS in remediation.
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Americans will be spending $2 billion more on gasoline over the four day Memorial Day weekend compared to a year ago, according to GasBuddy estimates, or roughly $22 million more every hour.
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The greatest heist in American history
Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas
Passive S&P 500 funds could have to buy roughly 19% of public SpaceX shares within 6mo under fast-tracking framework (it would enter the index at the est 6th spot), Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 may buy another 5.5% within weeks of the IPO. Thrown in active MFs benchmarked to those indices and you get to HALF of SpaceX shares. Nice study from my colleague @rduboff
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I still don’t think people appreciate how insane monetary policy has been the last 5 years
Complete break from really all historical patterns of behavior. Greenspan was like 100x more responsible than these guys
Not a surprise we have a major inflation
Problem
Ian Harnett@IanRHarnett
Many thanks to @johnauthers and @annerquaye for including some charts from a recent @asr_london note to clients in their @opinion article. John noted that "Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them."
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The Iran War's real economic damage isn't oil or the consumer.
It's housing.
A spike in mortgage rates may have just derailed the first signs of a housing recovery in three years.
In this post, I outline the sequence playing out:
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch
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“California almonds use 4x-7x more water than all data centers in North America used combined in 2025.”
Golf course owners:
Colin McCarthy@US_Stormwatch
Insane stat of the day: California almonds use roughly 3–5.5 million acre-feet of water per year, depending on methodology. That's ~4-7x more water than all data centers in North America used combined in 2025.
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Julian Scurci retweetledi
Passive S&P 500 funds could have to buy roughly 19% of public SpaceX shares within 6mo under fast-tracking framework (it would enter the index at the est 6th spot), Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 may buy another 5.5% within weeks of the IPO. Thrown in active MFs benchmarked to those indices and you get to HALF of SpaceX shares. Nice study from my colleague @rduboff
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Julian Scurci retweetledi
As pointed out below, “stocks are increasingly seen as an inflation hedge,” so fund managers are piling in.
The idea that stocks are a hedge against inflation is not new and has not worked for over a century.
BofA’s Michael Hartnett’s latest “Flow Show” from Friday:
* above 4% on CPI where risk assets get twitchy…
past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next three months, -7% next six months.”
Note that year-over-year CPI inflation was 3.8% through April.
Warren Buffett warned about this almost 50 years ago:
Fortune, May 1, 1977
Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor
“For many years, the conventional wisdom insisted that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their value in real terms, let the politicians print money as they might.”
He goes on to describe when this belief peaked: “This heaven-on-earth situation finally was ‘discovered’ in the mid-1960s by many major investing institutions. But just as these financial elephants began trampling on one another in their rush to equities, we entered an era of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.”
Finally, note that fund managers’ top three tail risks are in the chart on the right:
* Second wave inflation (40%)
* Geopolitical conflict (20%)
* Disorderly rise in bond yields (18%)
These three risks total 78%, and they could be argued to be variations on the same theme – the war will continue to drive crude oil prices higher, creating a second wave of inflation and higher bond yields.
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
– George Santayana, from The Life of Reason (1905)
Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1
Two takeaways from May’s BofA fund manager survey: first, equity allocations surged by a record amount on the month, and second, 40% of respondents see a second wave of inflation as the biggest tail risk. The two ideas are connected: stocks are increasingly seen as an inflation hedge
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
May 2026: 44.8
June 2022: 50.5
Sept 2008: 70.3
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Last point here was wild. Europe imposed a de-facto carbon tax on certain imports starting Jan 1. So farmers bought tons of fertilizer in Nov. and Dec. of last year to get ahead of the tax. And so by sheer "luck," European farmers didn't get clobbered when the Strait closed.
Michael Bruno@brubarian
Great episode. Top takeaways: Not enough economic pain felt by U.S. to achieve a compromise with Iran. Gas prices need to get closer to $6. (Iranian regime already killed thousands of its citizens, unclear why economic hardship would motivate them?) Farmers making choices today on wheat. There’s a world where the “bun” costs as much as the “burger” in a year. 5% demand deduction on oil already occurred. Inventories and stock pile releases have kept control on prices. When they run out, we’ll see futures reflect demand. Apparently - whey protein demand is killing aged cheese processes? And the Euros stockpiled fertilizer in December to sidestep another credit bill out of the EU. So, by luck - not strategy - European farmers doing okay on fertilizer this year.
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Wow! The U.S. injected ~9.9 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market last week.
That’s a record high flow of >1.4 million barrels a day. It’s the second consecutive SPR record high flow rate.
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Homebuilders we survey came into 2026 expecting 7% growth in single-family starts for the year. We asked them again in May, and they’re now planning for just 2% growth, which we think is still too optimistic.
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New York Times:
San Francisco median home price is 12.4x the median income, the least affordable ratio in the country among major cities
Also essential zero new construction and almost zero new construction construction underway
Any developer I’ve spoken to who’s built in the city before and come in contact with the San Francisco bureaucratic apparatus has told me (paraphrasing here)
“Screw this place, I’m never building in San Francisco again”
Which is why despite the high prices, you don’t see folks who already built in San Francisco trying to build again
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YARDENI:
“.. we expect the FOMC to signal a tightening bias at the June meeting of the monetary policy-setting committee, followed by a 25bps FFR hike at the July meeting. We can't rule out more rate hikes over the rest of this year.”
@yardeni
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I just can't say this loudly enough: The global balance of power for the next 50-100 years will be determined by who is first to make nuclear energy cost less than coal and gas. Energy dominance directly leads to geopolitical dominance; history is crystal clear on that.
China is quietly kicking the West's ass down the street. America's present nuclear renaissance is exactly the right recipe, but it's going to prove too little too late at the rate we're going.
China will assume the role of global dominance USA enjoyed for the last 80 years for the next 100 years, and it will have been our failure to modernize and economize our nuclear energy strategy that cause the West to lose our dominance.
This story will take decades to play out, but the handwriting on the wall couldn't be more clear: China is kicking our ass and we're too goddamned stupid and complacent to realize it.
DOE's nuclear leadership under @SecretaryWright and companies like @AaloAtomics are fantastic news for America. But compared to China's nuclear energy program, we're so far behind that it will be nearly impossible to catch up. And we handed China all the American-made technology they needed on a silver platter. It sickens me to see what's coming so clearly and have so many around me completely blind to it.
Nuclear Business Platform@Nuclear_BP
🇨🇳 China's Mind-Boggling Nuclear Factory: 50 Reactors at Once 🤯 If you think the nuclear industry is stuck in slow motion, look at China. They just announced a jaw-dropping capability: they can now construct up to 50 nuclear reactors simultaneously. To put their absolute dominance into perspective, here is what the scoreboard looks like right now: 🟢 60 Reactors already up, running, and powering the grid. 🏗️ 36 Reactors actively under construction—which accounts for over half of the entire world's total nuclear builds. 🚀 7 More scheduled to be commissioned and turned on before the year ends. 🛠️ How Are They Doing It? This isn't luck; it's a massive industrial playbook execution. China has turned nuclear deployment into a streamlined assembly line using: Standardized Designs: No re-inventing the wheel with every build. Mature Supply Chains: Every part and piece arrives exactly when and where it is needed. Decisive Execution: Unwavering state momentum to deliver massive, clean, reliable baseload power at scale. The Wake-Up Call: Nuclear isn't just a viable alternative for a clean energy transition; it is entirely essential for a high-energy future. The West needs to match this raw ambition or risk falling permanently behind in the global energy race. 🔗 Dive deeper into the full data: #aseanreport" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nuclearbusiness-platform.com/asia/market-ov…
#NuclearEnergy #NuclearPower #EnergySecurity #CleanEnergy #China #SMR #Infrastructure English
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Clemson is $1.5B in debt. Syracuse is closing or pausing 93 programs, UNC-Chapel Hill plans to cut spending by $89M over 3 years. Duke recently let 600 employees go in a $350M budget cut. Indiana public colleges announced a plan to eliminate or merge 580 programs statewide.
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