Markus Momentan

@MichaelWHowell @Couch_Observer @rushicrypto Iran has 60% enriched uranium, producing a bomb is not as easy as with plutonium. The bomb consists of not just the enriched uranium, but all the other materials as well and the uranium needs mass to achieve a reaction. So at minimum, the Iranian Hulk. On a truck.

@Mackeroonis @Couch_Observer @rushicrypto You could make a 1KT device that weighs less than 75lbs. It would fit inside a decent sized backpack. We built warheads of this size over 60 years ago. I’m confident that most modern countries are capable of this by now; the limiting factors are the enriched fuel material.

JD Vance claimed today that Iran may send people with “Nuclear Sucicide Vests.” Yes he really said this. Any nuclear physicists out there that can comment on this? I mean I’m guessing it’s insane and not possible but I know nothing.

@MasterNemesis69 @Couch_Observer @rushicrypto The nuclear reactor that powers a submarine is not large, you could fit it in a closet. It can be made even smaller if needed, the principle is scalable. The problem with a nuclear explosion is the mass required to produce the necessary reaction. It can’t be very small.

@Couch_Observer @rushicrypto If it were possible to make nuclear devices that small we would have cars/planes/boats powered by miniature nuclear reactors.

@Couch_Observer @rushicrypto It actually isn’t. Producing a simple ‘bomb’ to ignite an atomic reaction is doable. A gun-type assembly can be machined relatively easily, but there are other significant stupidities in a ”suicide west”. Mostly the weight. You still need a truck. So why wrap it around a person?

You dont need to be a nuclear scientists to know this. Iran just doesnt have the capability to make a device like that. To make a nuke is difficult and takes an insane amount of technological advancements and to make a small device like that would be an incredible achievement even for a major nuclear power

@lorddrey An ally cooperates independently. A proxy acts on behalf of someone and is not independent, since it relies on support to meet its goals. A proxy is a middleman for someone else’s goals.

When it is the US and the West they are called allies When it is Iran, China, or Russia they are called Proxies

@Microinteracti1 @anders_aslund If Trump controls the Strait of Hormuz, he has a powerful grip on China. The rest of the Western world has no interest in taking the moral high ground or begging Trump to return control to the Mullahs. They will support him. There is order in the chaos of having him on top.

@Microinteracti1 @anders_aslund In Iran Trump is only a step or two away from controlling the flow of Iranian oil, just like Venezuela. A move that would have seemed too bold or too reckless to mention a year ago is now becoming a necessity to save the global economy and will likely win widespread support.

Nobody in the Trump administration planned for Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody planned for sustained missile strikes on American bases across the Gulf. Nobody planned for an energy crisis. Nobody planned for Europe to look at Washington, shrug, and walk the other way. Nobody, it turns out, planned for very much at all. Read the accounts of how this war was decided and you are left with one deeply uncomfortable realisation: the people who launched it appear to have been genuinely surprised by almost everything that followed. The Iranians shot back. The allies didn’t show up. The oil price went vertical. All of it, apparently, news to them. Which leaves two questions so obvious they’re almost embarrassing to ask. What exactly did they think was going to happen? And did anyone, in any room, at any point, think further ahead than the applause? Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

@Ad_Tel_210168 Iraq thought it could be brave and not comply. Syria thought Russia would protect them. Libya thought their revolution against the USA would attract allies. Gaza thought they could punish the Israelis. It all ended the same way, and Iran will likely end up the same.

@Ad_Tel_210168 Just as Hamas has kept fighting in Gaza for two years, Iran can do the same, if that’s the fate they want for their country. Iran will be wrecked, just like all the others in the region.

Apparently Iran started the war with ~8,000 missiles & ~50,000 drones. They've used only ~20% of missiles & much lesser drones - taking out many radars & blinding interceptors. US-Israel are running short of interceptors. Iran can keep this up for months. And if Russians 1/2

@MichaelDDS @Megatron_ron It’s the equivalent of striking an airport and putting a runway out of service. The airport still functions but needs repairs. All the bases are still functioning. Some have taken more damage than others, but they will all be back on track soon after the war ends.

@MichaelDDS @Megatron_ron Why use a base that’s in firing range when you can park your planes out of reach? The bases have ”taken damage”, meaning something has detonated on the premises. As an example, Al Udeid Air Base is enormous, it houses around 10,000 troops and is still operational after a hit.

BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty. Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage, according to the NYT.

@visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 The island will most likely be netted to protect the troops from FPVs. FPV drones will need to be launched from 20–30 miles away while dragging an optic cable. There will be massive aerial support to suppress anything moving close to the shoreline.

@visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 It’s a prestige objective, like taking the king’s castle. It won’t come easy or without casualties, and holding it is another bitter feud to endure. But holding it until it hurts could force a deal that would otherwise require a larger invasion with even more losses.

iran is having no issues hitting us at 380 miles, but dumb fucks think that our troops will be safe at 20 miles. really?

@Akumunokokoro @visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 Where would you set up your defense and harbor your personnel if your objective is to keep the tap closed and stay away from the beaches, since they are within reach of enemy fire?

@Akumunokokoro @visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 Since that’s where the military is. They are not going to set camp on an empty beach.

@visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 It’s the regime’s weak point. The vessels that could transport troops now lie at the bottom of the sea, while the waters are patrolled by aircraft specialized in tearing incoming boats apart. There have always been plans to seize the island because of its vulnerability.

@visioneersalarm @secretsqrl123 The gamble is that Iran won’t shell its own oil infrastructure to pieces and set itself back a decade. The IRGC needs to retake the island intact if it wants to survive the next onslaught, which is almost certainly already in the plans as soon as Iran has bankrupted itself.

@DJZ3 @robertwrighter @academic_la The carriers have been there for weeks and have launched an armada of planes comparable to a nation’s entire air force. Calling them ‘not useful’ might be something of an understatement.

@Mackeroonis @robertwrighter @academic_la sure. Straits should be open any time now. 🤡

A likely story. The fact that Iran hit and put the number one carrier out of commission is an incredible achievement. Another reason this war has been a humiliating catastrophe.

@DJZ3 @robertwrighter @academic_la It’s not a gunboat. There is no need to be at range for cannons. A carrier is most useful against an enemy whose main threat is missiles. The ship moves, unlike planes parked on a fixed airstrip that will eventually be hit.

@robertwrighter @academic_la The fact is is that the carriers aren’t useful. Even the ones we have there are unwilling to get anywhere near the shoreline. Warfare has changed

@CappiesCantCope @policytensor What kind of boat would you take to an island with a battalion of soldiers, over waters patrolled by Warthogs and Apaches? If you wonder why the destruction of the fleet has been an objective and why the planes are there, now you know.

@Mackeroonis @policytensor Hilarious if you actually believe they have no boats.

How do you protect a force on Kharg when you cannot protect THAAD radars three hundred miles away?