Mark Paddey

AI plays with MASSIVE growth potential: $TSLA - FSD (most advanced real world AI) $PLTR - Extracts more value out of an orgs data $LMND - AI driven data flywheel to reduce insurance costs $DNA - Syn-bio shovels provider. Each shovel sold provides data to improve the next shovel

@dingies @SubtleInduction @Scot1andT No disrespect, but if you lost money on on $LMND over the past two years, your problem is not the stock, your problem is patience. $LMND is up 80% in the last 12 months and over 200% in the last two years.

@SubtleInduction @Scot1andT it is kinda like $hims how it has behaved. I think $lmnd is better but these 2 stocks have been 2 of my only losers over the last 1-2 years besides $sofi. I trimmed and exited them all besides $lmnd but losing faith. $tmdx was another loser - they all kinda behaved the same way

for the life of me, I don't understand the appeal of $LMND - its a shitty insurance company but worse at underwriting than the others. I have some public adjuster friends, and they've said this company doesn't know what its doing at all for claims.

@Neil_X10 @Ironic_Ape Sounds like SBC is going up again.

@vander_lane Seems like anything even perceived as software related is just getting no love in this market. This can only last so long before the winners emerge from the broader pile

I honestly don't understand why $LMND is still trading around $50-60. Is the market not seeing what we are seeing or is everyone chasing chip stocks?

@bradsferguson What makes you say that?

@MarkPaddey $PGY is investing in $UPST methodology & loans. Not the other way around. We’ve looked at it. But not gone as deep.

What’s more overpriced…? Proctor & Gamble $PG at 22x forward P/E, and a PEG of 6.36 Or Taiwan Semi $TSM at 20x forward earnings and a 0.6 PEG Stable dividend payers are like bonds.

@trevhesinvests I added a pretty big chunk yesterday before earnings, and will likely shift some capital around to add more in the coming days. The operating leverage is just too good to ignore at this point.

$PGY losing the majority of its gains and only up 4.5% on the day Anyone adding? I know I will be!

Reposting in the group in case anyone hasn't looked deeper at these numbers. Great quarter, the operating leverage is a thing to behold! Very bullish.

Was looking at $PGY's latest FY2026 guidance. If you take the midpoint vs 2025 actuals Network volume: +16% Revenue: +14% Adj EBITDA: +19% Net Income: +65% This is operating leverage at work. If we get rate cuts later this year, growth could re-accelerate and these numbers go out the window. Company only inflected to profitability last year, and the market clearly hasn't figured out how to value it yet. With net income growth like this, that may not be the case for long. Going off Analysts 2026 & 2027 EPS estimates (which I expect to be meaningfully revised to the upside after this quarters beat and raise): 2026 Fwd P/E = 12.5 2027 Fwd P/E = 8.8

@daardos Fwd P/E is under 5...

@daardos It seems to me like based on valuation and growth, $PGY could triple and still trade relatively cheaply... Am I missing something?

$PGY : Pagaya delivers again!! It looks like there was record demand for the PAID 3 ABS issuance, with another $800 million raised. This brings Pagaya’s total ABS issuance across all platforms since the beginning of the year to $4.3 billion. Simply a massive amount. LONG $PGY

@anthonyisonline Car loss ratio was artificially low in Q4 due to a one-time prior period adjustment. Essentially the last few quarters had been reported too high, so Q4 was reported too low to adjust. TTM loss ratio is better comp.

Great top- line numbers from $LMND yesterday. However, to test my own thesis, a short 🧵of the less positive stuff. 1a. Car growth not as explosive as many would've liked (especially considering the attention from Elon/ Tesla) 1b. Car loss- ratio up massively from Q4

@bradsferguson What are your thoughts on full year guide? Beating Q1 EBITDA by 5M and adjusting full year by 1M essentially reduces Q2-4 guide by 4M.

Terrible quarter for Lemonade😉

@ShadyJosh5 I agree it was a great quarter. But they beat adj EBITDA by 5M and only revised full year guide by 1M... That's the same thing as lowering Q2-Q4 guide by 4M.

How the stock has sold off on these numbers is beyond me. Makes zero sense. Execution is flawless. Happy to hold, looks likely Q3 will be at or very close to positive EBITDA.

If you're looking for alpha in the stock market, look no further. @PaperBagInvest $LMND

Strong Q1 for $LMND. Beats across the board. Though I am a little disappointed; Adjusted EBITDA beat by 5M, while full year guide was only revised up 1M. Initial estimates from last years guide were actually quite accurate, so maybe there isn't as much sandbagging as we hoped?

@RealMattMoney $LMND - might not be big tech but that's the report I'm most excited for on the 29th

This Wednesday, April 29th, is Big Tech earnings Super Bowl... who is winning? $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL probabli.ai/articles

@amitisinvesting Out of all the names reporting on the 29th, I'm most excited for $LMND 🍋

APRIL 29TH IS A BIG DAY. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, & Meta all have earnings...on the same day. The last time that happened? October 29th, 2020. So the question is...if you had to listen to only one earnings since all of them conflict, which one? For me, it's $META.

@EnergyInvest0r @midjunetroop Congratulations btw! Big milestone!

@MarkPaddey @midjunetroop Absolutely.

@midjunetroop @EnergyInvest0r TFSAs were introduced in 2009 with annual contribution limits between $5,000-10,000 each year. As of 2026 the maximum contribution is $109,000. 352 people hitting $1,000,000 in 2024 is impressive, but time is the ultimate compounder. I suspect that number is much higher today.

@EnergyInvest0r Impressive, but 352 people out of 40 million Canadians kind of proves it's not exactly a "level playing field" - congrats though

@Mrdove15 @fallacyalarm 53% is impressive, but my whole point is that two years ago when it was 77% it was less impressive, but you could still see clearly the direction it was trending. TTM Car loss ratio at 70% still isn't amazing, but give it a year or two and it too will probably look impressive.

@MarkPaddey @fallacyalarm $LMND. 30 yr Insurance broker. I did short it in Nov 24 /July 25. Loss ratio is ultimately King metric in insurance-it proves people, underwriting & tech. Loss ratio=53% is really impressive. Shocking with their book. Auto Insurance will kill them. Chart indecisive at support.

This is $LMND's adjusted FCF, proudly stated on page 1 of their shareholder letter. $37m in Q4, amazing isn't it? Well, half of that ($19m) is borrowing to fund CAC, a financing cash flow which they shamelessly reclassify as operating. The other half is adding back SBC ($19m), a real expense for shareholders. If you only adjust those two items, the true cash flow of the business already turns zero. And the only reason it's not deeply negative is because they are rapidly growing revenue and because they are rapidly reducing reinsurance coverage both of which makes them keep more upfront premium collection. But it's pointless to use/debate cash flow as a KPI in an insurance business. What matters is BOOK VALUE PER SHARE, which is down 16% YoY and down 45% since I first wrote about them in late 2022. It's such a joke of a company.