Martin Schwoerer

@BitTintin @LynAldenContact Hergé is groaning in his grave

@LynAldenContact More importantly- will the jihadist regime continue to export terror to the world or will the world become a better place once they are gone?

The market increasingly has one question: will the strait open somewhat soon or no?

@MelMattison1 that's just toxic masculinity that's telling you to "man up" after you've discovered you've been conned. Everybody's a fool a few times in their life. Learn from it, and don't wallow in some heroic fantasy.

At the EofD, I just want to die alone on a mountain top somewhere. I’m sorry, but deep down, even your kids don’t care about you. Life is brutal. Man up.

@ramahluwalia @JC_ParetsX honestly, I don't understand Dell's strength; the Neo is only the beginning.

@JC_ParetsX I might short Dell tomorrow.

The relative strength has been in Hardware. New all-time highs today relative to S&Ps. No one is talking about it

@hkuppy the only reason he needs to TACO is the mid-terms. Cancel them, and problem solved, and then he can Gaza Iran in peace. All that's required is a well-prepared false flag operation, like burning down the Reichstag

The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force generation that is a few times that of Iraq 1. As you can imagine, most Americans want nothing to do with an adventure like this. At the same time, Trump cannot simply go home, as that would be a defeat. As terrible as it seems, Trump is slowly realizing what I said a few weeks ago, the only way out of Iran, is through Iran. Are you ready for what’s coming..?? They’ve been prepping for 45 years…

@saxena_puru wars are historically a pure fiscal stimulus. This one is different. It's stagflationary.

The current $SPX sell-off similar to prior post war declines. Historically, the stock market has bottomed around now both in terms of time and % decline. One final flush to capitulation and reversal? Chart DB

@conorsen Finance psychopath: "we need to send Marines into the meat grinder because I'm long the market"

Markets need this to be over — boots on the ground this weekend that accelerate the endgame potentially get the Strait opened faster than another one week delay that prolongs this.

@MelMattison1 what the hell are you advocating, mass murder just because you can? Psycho stuff

I hate to say this, but it is the truth. Iran does not want to fuck with us if we get serious. And we can get serious. We are roughly 2.5x their population and we are much more lethal. It will kill our stock market, but we can destroy Iran. Trump may just be crazy enough to go all the way. Iran should back down.

@elerianm it's a squashed TACO now. Trump wants to fold, but nobody's listening. He shot his wad.

This cnbc headline follows a rough day for financial markets. #economy #markets #middleeastwar

@PeterSchiff well you know, Germany won WW2 after the Blitzkrieg, so there is some historical precedent. France, Belgium and Poland were conquered, and the rest was history

I think Iran knows they can win the war just by surviving long enough for Trump to surrender by claiming the biggest victory in the history of war. They know Trump will ultimately be guided by poll numbers, oil prices, the stock market, and the U.S. economy, not Iran's position.

@Dremontjones @JC_ParetsX you wish

@JC_ParetsX Thank god this war is almost over

Watch for the Orange Swan Risk x.com/Sandman7591/st…

@nicrypto sorry, but can't see it predicting anything except for when Trump *tries* to TACO. TACO works when other countries don't retaliate on tariffs. It doesn't when Iran has nothing to lose and everything to gain by keeping the pressure on him.

This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump. It has proven effective in previous big Trump pivots. The "Pressure index" combines one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations and performance of the S&P 500 & t-bill yields. The higher it goes, the greater the chances of 🌮

@IBookWins @MelMattison1 I assume you're not saying that his wrecking the markets is the first and only reason you can think of for impeaching him

@MelMattison1 He completely wrecked the markets for no reason at all. Inexcusable and he should be impeached.

If you are listening to any of the CNBC/FOX/Bloomberg propaganda, good luck. All rallies are to be sold. U.S. is in a chump position now. DJT is a joke. I’m ashamed I voted for that idiot.

@gerardtbaker comical Donnie! And in all fairness, he's always been an amusing fellow.

The unsettling reality is that with this president, Americans in wartime are in the unprecedented position of having to suspect that the enemy’s version of events is more likely to be true than our own. We have become Baghdad Bob.

@EdwardGLuce ha! I didn't need that.

Strange situation where we await a statement from Iran to check whether there's any truth to what US president is saying.

@maddenifico No need for any of this. Somebody could have used hand puppets to explain it to him too, if the WH presentation/animation staff was on leave of absence, as it may well have been.

Iran is now releasing cartoons that Trump can understand. 😂🤣👇

@al_xdpg same with the Nasdaq. No Thrasher 5% Canary. DJIA however looks worse. I wrote about it here: martinschwoerer.substack.com/p/no-taco-at-2…

$SPX An interesting 'Buy the Dip Signal' occured last week. I'm deep in cash & letting TACO work his magic. In the meantime watch for a FTD. Here are the details-cmtassociation.org/wp-content/upl…

@sentimentrader @LanceRoberts sounds like a bit of a coin toss to me

This has been one of the more important divergences we've been tracking recently. CDS is pushing to a 9-month high even with equities near highs, effectively tightening financial conditions. Historically, this setup has been unstable: about half the time it led to sharp drawdowns, while the rest saw either mild pullbacks or continued gains.

As we have discussed previously, paying attention to credit spreads will keep you out of bear markets more often than not. As @sentimentrader noted yesterday, whenever spreads make a 9-month high with the S&P 500 within 5% of its peak, rough markets tend to follow.

@JamesLucasIT that's Ulrich Wickert, a giant of German TV (now mostly occupied by dwarves)

In 1984 a German reporter in Paris explains how to cross Place de la Concorde: "Walk steadily across and never look at the drivers. If you do, they'll think you've seen them and won't stop."

@axel_lieber exactly. The whole analysis felt a lot less solid after I saw Greenland being mentioned. The whole topic is just bait for suckers (i.e. Trump speaking to the lowest instincts of his saddest supporters).

@mickeymm06 Greenland as a bargaining chip? You mean, like, dangle possession in front of Trump's nose? Not gonna happen.

Let the Games Begin I've been running game theory simulations on the current tariff wars using my model, and the results are fascinating. Looking at the key components—technology superiority, financial strength, commodity resources, and demographics—three major players emerge: the USA, China, and the EU. In normal circumstances, the USA holds the winning hand, but when China aligns with Russia (whose energy resources complement China's vulnerabilities), we're looking at a stalemate. Interestingly, the real winners might be independent players with specific advantages: India, with its favourable demographics or Saudi Arabia, with its commodity wealth. So what moves might we see on this global chessboard? For the USA, several options emerge: pulling Russia away from China (though unlikely), quickly strengthening Asian alliances with Japan and Korea, wooing India away from BRICS with military technology offers, intensifying the semiconductor competition, and reining in that debt-to-GDP ratio through spending cuts. China's playbook might include driving wedges between the US and Europe, offering security guarantees to Saudi Arabia and Iran, developing alternatives to SWIFT, leveraging their dominance in critical resources like rare earth minerals, tungsten, and uranium, and perhaps blockading (rather than attacking) Taiwan. Europe finds itself in perhaps the most precarious position. Their best strategy? Hold out as long as possible for better terms with the USA, possibly using Greenland as a bargaining chip with its Arctic trade routes and substantial oil and rare earth reserves. The wild card in all this? The Federal Reserve. The only scenario where the USA takes a decisive loss is if the world dumps Treasury holdings and the Fed chooses not to intervene in controlling yields. The moves have begun. May the odds be ever in your favour.

@voltrader_ai @jimcramer @ScottWapnerCNBC Two factors. *Valuation floor: what yields reliable 4% now is a steal at 8% , hence little danger of a dangerous 50% value loss even in strong recessionary bear markets à la 08. *Payout is a disciplinary factor for management, forces smart capital allocation and focus on costs.

@jimcramer @ScottWapnerCNBC Can someone - smart - explain to me why investing in dividend stocks is a good thing? Ex-dividend you are left with dvd + stock - dvd - tax rate x dvd, so you have less money than the day before. Why do this trade? Bueller? Bueller?

Just picked up "Dividend Investing" by my great friend Jenny Harrington, whom you might know from her insightful comments on @ScottWapnerCNBC's shows. Looks fabulous as i believe that long-term investing is the best kind. -All proceeds go to Council or Economic Education!!! Good call!!!