No More Parties

740 posts

No More Parties

No More Parties

@NMPCap

signal-to-noise

Katılım Haziran 2012
6.2K Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
Friendly Capital Management
Friendly Capital Management@FriendlyCapMgmt·
I am an LP in a hedge fund of a very vocal fintwit fund manager. Soon I will have been invested with him for 5 years. He's underperformed the S&P 500 meaningfully. I myself have destroyed him with the portfolio I manage myself. He runs 100-120% net long. Should I redeem?
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No More Parties
No More Parties@NMPCap·
@tembelvitesi @tlaubers Curious how you're reading his PSU comments. What quarterly FCF gets to the $2.44 100% vest hurdle, and what fully diluted shares count should we use for Q4 '27 FCF/share calculation?
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Lazy Compound | Road to #FIRE
Lazy Compound | Road to #FIRE@tembelvitesi·
Alright guys, the response is in, and it came directly from @tlaubers - replied to the email himself. First off, I have to admit I was wrong to expect evasive PR answers. I have a lot of respect for Taylor being this accessible and responsive. It’s great to see him carrying on the tradition of transparency that @rookisaacman built. I’m sharing his answers below exactly as I received them, without any of my own commentary. 1. PSU Targets — Where Is the Stretch? The calculation includes all shares issued or potentially issued (so it includes the mandatory). Note that the $632M convertible is designed to be settled in cash unless the stock is above ~$120. We have not publicly disclosed a strategy for this maturity but have explained the impact of a re-finance so investors and analysts understand what impact refinancing would have on our cash flow (essentially just increased interest expense). 2. Q2 Buyback Capacity We haven’t set an explicit cash balance target but have said we continue to see multiple attractive capital deployment opportunities. Buybacks continue to look attractive, but you are also right to assume that as cash is more limited, our bar for any dollar of deployment is quite high. I know this may read as a non-answer, but it’s truthful that we debate all capital uses almost daily. We have also said we will not bring leverage above 3.75x on a sustained basis. 3. Backlog Disclosure Please don’t’ view this as a rescinded disclosure. We debate whether to pull a disclosure out when we add disclosure simply to try out best to make the story easier. It’s usually as simple as needing space on a page so we swap one for another. A good example would be when we didn’t make a skytab disclosure in Q4 but re-introduced it in Q1. The backlog is healthy and largely consistent with prior quarters. 4. Global Blue Cross-Sell Timeline It’s the right question – but note that gateway conversions are much simpler. In the case of a gateway, we are already connected to the merchant for payment processing and they generally don’t have to do anything but say yes to move them to end-to-end. We always knew Global Blue would take more effort and that is why we said expect meaningful synergy contribution in 2027 when we announced the deal. We are introducing ourselves as a payment option to GB merchants for the first time and wanted a product that provided eligibility detection so a merchant would not just sign up for payments but also get a better product. We’re pleased with the progress we’ve made, which is a new and great product live in 7 countries. There are 8 more to go for our first phase. 5. Vectron Update — Germany Execution What we’ve said publicly (which is obviously the limit of the disclosure I can share) is that we’re boarding several hundred Vectron merchants per month. I believe we can do better here and have some product enhancements that should help accelerate things. 6. 2027 Deleverage Path and Convertible Strategy We haven’t provided an explicit target for 2027 but have said that our current growth allows for a quarter turn of deleveraging per quarter barring other capital deployment. I think this is the right tone. The capital allocation environment is one of the best we’ve seen, including the opportunity to continue to buy our own stock, but leverage is somewhat high and we agree in the power that de-leveraging can have on the equity story. $FOUR
Lazy Compound | Road to #FIRE tweet media
Lazy Compound | Road to #FIRE@tembelvitesi

I think most of you know my bull case for $FOUR by now. But being bullish doesn't mean being blind. I have some tough questions for management that I think the investment community deserves answers to. Not sure if @Speedwell_LLC can help facilitate again like they did last quarter. Here are my 6 questions. 1. PSU Targets — Where Is the Stretch? Your PSU targets measure Q4 2027 free cash flow per share. Using today's fully diluted count of 92 million shares, the 100% vest threshold of $2.44 requires roughly $225 million of quarterly FCF. Your Q4 2026 midpoint guide is $212M — so merely ~6% growth gets you there. But let's look at what happens if you complete the $400M buyback authorization, which would retire roughly 9 million shares and drop the base count to 83M: If the stock is > strike price: The $632M convertible adds ~5M shares via dilution. You're looking at roughly 88M diluted shares. At $2.44 per share, you only need $215M in quarterly FCF. If the stock is < strike price: The debt is refinanced rather than settled in shares. The count stays at 83M. At $2.44 per share, you only need $202M in quarterly FCF. This means management can essentially hit the 100% payout threshold with flat or even negative cash flow growth. Can you confirm whether the denominator is the weighted average fully diluted count, including the preferreds on an as-converted basis? And more importantly, does the board view this target as genuinely stretching management, or is it primarily a guaranteed retention mechanism? I'm honestly not sure where the challenge is in these numbers. 2. Q2 Buyback Capacity Cash is at $473M. Q2 free cash flow is guided at just $10M. You have $400M remaining on the buyback authorization. Walk us through Q2 — are you comfortable taking cash reserves below $400M to continue repurchases, or should we expect a meaningful pause until H2 cash flow arrives? Would you consider AR factoring or drawing on the revolver to maintain buyback pace through the summer? 3. Backlog Disclosure I remember Jared once noted on a call that when Fiserv stopped disclosing payment volumes, it sent a negative signal to investors. He urged people to think about why a company would stop sharing a metric it previously highlighted. This quarter, you stopped disclosing volume backlog. It was last reported at $32 billion and had been declining from $35 billion earlier in the year. Can you explain why this metric was removed and what the current figure stands at? 4. Global Blue Cross-Sell Timeline The Eigen-to-Lahal Casino conversion was a clear proof of concept for the acquisition cross-sell playbook — converting a gateway merchant to full end-to-end processing at multiples of the original take rate. Global Blue has been part of Shift4 for 10 months now with over 400,000 merchant touchpoints across 75 countries. When should we expect the first announced Global Blue payment processing cross-sell? Enterprise sales cycles are long, but 12 months feels like enough time for at least a pilot announcement. 5. Vectron Update — Germany Execution You acquired Vectron with 65,000 POS locations in Germany. The UK team appears to be up and running. Can you give us a comparable update on Vectron? How many of those 65,000 merchants have converted to Shift4 payment processing so far? What's the conversion rate and timeline versus what you initially underwrote? Germany is the largest economy in Europe and investors need to understand whether the cross-sell playbook is working there at the same pace as the UK. 6. 2027 Deleverage Path and Convertible Strategy You've guided to low threes net leverage by year-end 2026. The $632M convertible note is due August 2027— roughly 15 months away. Can you help us think about the 2027 deleverage path? Specifically, what net leverage are you targeting exiting 2027 — mid twos, low twos? And does the current plan assume you repay the convert from accumulated cash flow or refinance it? @tlaubers @rookisaacman

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Kip Johann-Berkel
Kip Johann-Berkel@BerkelKip·
One of the biggest risks to software imho is mgmt. acquiring some shiny AI company for a big multiple. Prime example: $NICE acquired AI agent platform Cognigy for ~$955M or ~25x sales!! h/t @atelicinvest
Kip Johann-Berkel tweet media
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George Hadjia
George Hadjia@GHadjia·
Tencent trading on 11x FY26E P/E when you strip out the value of listed/unlisted investments. This is the company that owns WeChat, the digital operating system through which Chinese citizens conduct their daily lives and can't go without... $Tencent
George Hadjia tweet media
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Militia built (and is improving) an AI system that automatically summarizes all company filings that I have a position in. It translates them to English if need be. It also auto sorts them by how material/important the news is. We're thinking to offer these kinds of tools for free (or maybe cheap, just to cover costs) to anyone that wants to use them. If that's something you'd be genuinely interested in using, please let me know in the comments. In an example from today: filings from a ton of Japanese companies that are all doing or expanding buy backs.
David Orr tweet media
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Admiral Waterworld
Admiral Waterworld@WaterworldCapi1·
@310Value That's where it trades now? I'm asking what the price target you have is?
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Cluseau Investments
Cluseau Investments@blondesnmoney·
Within "AI" oriented names, I own $WDC, $MU, $SNDK. I also have $FIX (which I don't quite understand anymore but guess it's finally time I'm on the right side of a meme) $POWL, and $IESC.
Cluseau Investments tweet media
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Kairos Investment Research ♟️
$NVEE $TIC Most of NV5 and Acurens competitors trade at 12-14x EBITDA. $TIC Trades at 11x (350 million post-synergy EBITDA) IF all goes well, it will trade closer to competitors. $APG went from 10x to 16x+ over a few years after the Chubb deal and a change in revenue mix.
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Ryan Reeves
Ryan Reeves@RyanReeves_·
Chapters Group in Germany has a fascinating shareholder base. CEO Jan Mohr is mid 30's and is building a baby Berkshire. Here is a great podcast episode with him: open.spotify.com/episode/56IxVR… - Sator Grove: the three guys who run Art of Investing podcast and ran Notre Dame's endowment for years - Mitch Rales: legendary Danaher co-founder - Daniel Ek's family office: Spotify founder - MITIMCO - Sun Mountain: Will Thorndike's public equity strategy
Ryan Reeves tweet media
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Trevor Scott
Trevor Scott@TidefallCapital·
Chris Hohn on the advantages of public equities vs private. And showing why he has crushed it over his career. Just a legend. $CHTR
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No More Parties
No More Parties@NMPCap·
@WaterworldCapi1 @DMTCapital I get the business inflection, but 16x EBITDA vs 10x historic mean (even TDG historically traded at 16x EBITDA)? How should I be thinking about $CRS valuation?
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Francisco Amador | Sleepwell
Francisco Amador | Sleepwell@SleepwellCap·
Since most of the value these days seems to be on the DMs, I'm going to create a few DM groups of Sectors that I'm interested in to share ideas, discuss views, articles, earnings, etc. Reply with which one you'd like to join (ticker list are just examples): Music (SPOT UMG WMG) Luxury (LVMH CFR RMS MONC) Cross Border Payments (WISE RELY SNEX CPAY CABP) Serial Acquirers (with long runway like CSU, JDG) I'm also interested in discussing the following tickers (which don't have great comps), if there's enough interest I'll make a stock specific DM $BRK $WOSG.LN $FEVR.LN $UHAL $NU (or could do Latam Fintech too)
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No More Parties
No More Parties@NMPCap·
@WarrenPies @MorganLBrennan @CNBCOvertime Warren, you say that a further market decline is historically likely only if a recession occurs in the near future, but *half* of bear markets have happened without a subsequent recession. How does that align with your logic about recessions being necessary for further downside?
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Admiral Waterworld
Admiral Waterworld@WaterworldCapi1·
I can't think of any business where it makes sense to carve out positioning in the middle. You either want to be low cost and offer the best values or you want to be the highest end brand. The mid/bell curve meme applies to companies/brands same as thinking/people.
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