Narmis

Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually prompt Claude. Taught by the people who built it. Free. No signup. No paywall. I've watched $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Some thoughts on $MIN.AX... These guys are A-class mine builders, innovators and engineers over a long period... don't know if you can say the same about their road building ability or governance - but lets park that. They're taking a huge punt on the Onslow iron ore project... they've spent close to A$4bn on it thus far - tho have recouped A$1.1bn via selling down a 49% interest in the haul road (150km road from mine to port that charges a ~$8/t usage fee). They own 57% direct interest in the project (60.3% attrib) but are bankrolling 100% with the JV partners to fund their share of capex out of cash flow. MIN is levered to the tits. A combination of financing 100% of Onslow capex (incl overruns) combined with deteriorating commodity prices for their core businesses (iron ore and lithium). They also went stupid in the lithium bull market buying all sorts of crap. We're talking A$5.4bn net debt plus a prepayment (US$400m) to Trafigura... and still some capex remaining at Onslow. But provided they execute Onslow - this will change the game for them... they model A$1.5bn attrib (incl min services and 51% haul road) at US$100/t 62% Fe benchmark and A$45/wmt costs.. I think A$1.25bn with A$55/wmt cost more likely. But they also get the JV partner carry loans and the A$200m contingent paid out over next 12mths (if hit 35mtpa runrate for a quarter). That's more like A$1.8bn from Onslow next financial year before servicing the prepay and interest. This goes a long way to fixing the balance sheet. Major risks - 1. Short term liquidity - kind of maxed out the credit card with A$5.4bn net debt plus the US$400m prepay... so further overruns going to hurt.. though they do have some "levers" 2. Structural issues with Onslow - ie design of haul road and/or 330t haul trucks (geology seems fine) 3. Commodity markets 4. Uncertainty on mgmt going forward (governance cloud on the founder) The prize - The equity trades at ~A$3.8bn (add in the A$5.4bn net debt), down nearly 80% from it's peak and below book. There's an argument to say Onslow will do A$1.5bn pa for them at a low/mid cycle iron ore price. The mining services business (ex Onslow) is likely a further A$0.6bn. And lithium can be zero or a billion+. So maybe A$2.5bn through cycle EBITDA. Throw a 6x multiple on it and call the net debt halved in next 2 years.. it's a big return on the equity... is 3-4 bhagger. Remember FMG in 2015/16 when it went from $1.50 to $7/sh in ~18mths as its growth projects executed and the de-leveraging event occurred? (we can say the iron ore price bounced but the below tells the picture)... scale = margin in the bulks...

‘Everything Except My Fixed Income Fund Is Doomed’ - volume 7 chapter 15 💀🚨

$DGL CEO taking a pay cut until performance improves. The guy doesn't need it. Still, would love to see this at pretty much every company I follow.