Peter Griffin Capital

So I first met @citrini in person almost two and a half years ago, in a dark hotel bar just a block away from where our first real office ended up being. We hit things off pretty quickly, but I think we both knew there was a fit when we discussed how we could bring Citrini Research to the institutional market.

@darioperkins remind me what the detox narrative was?

this is an excellent question, and one where I can give a serviceable answer for now basically asking, "u tweet/write about breaking down tape, u post Kuechly breaking down tape...what is the market equivalent of this?" 1. grinding charts/screens -- like how Druck talks about how he gets 272 charts at 4:30 AM 2. P&L/trade blotter these are both article-length answers I will try and keep it brief here, forgive rushed writing/typos P&L: going thru all ur losses and troubleshooting. process vs outcome, luck vs skill, learning from ur mistakes this sounds very simple, and I sat down to write a tweet-length answer....4000 words later was like, oh shit there's actually so many layers to it but this to me is the most important, its the #1 way to improve, people who are serious do it and yet no one does it because it sucks. it's you alone in a dark room by yourself, just staring at all ur bad decisions 2. u want to know why 99.9% of people really don't do it? they don't want to know the truth about themselves. the truth is ugly. they're afraid to look inside, because they don't know what they'll find. and your P&L leaves you NOWHERE TO HIDE. it is a mirror, and it's an unvarnished reflection of all your flaws, your bad decisions and your dogshit discipline u cannot blame or make excuses, u cannot tweet around it, and it is immune to all forms of LARPitude it's one of the clearest indicators of who is real not just as a trader but as a human show me someone who is afraid to look at their P&L, and give me moneyline at -1000 lay $10k to win $1000 that they will never be successful in markets its that simple 3. if there were prop bets I'd tell u exactly how they blow their first account...time horizon, position sizes first off I've made every mistake myself, and second, over 10-15 years of trading, teaching friends/family, watching people fail in years 0-5 over and over and over... I just know all the early-stage mistakes, especially the mental/cognitive ones, ego, vanity, denial, self-deceit, fear someone in years 0-5 of trading markets is a fucking mess, like an asylum case...they underestimate how stupid, weak, and slippery the human mind is 4. tell a guy "stop urself out down 20%" "okay" takes a 60% loss "what happened there chief? ur job was to see the number 20%, and then click the mouse....a 6-year old coulda done that" mfs will either lose their shit, crumble, or enable some sociopath mode where the loss wasn't their fault all people's fucked up childhoods and upbringings emerge in how they grapple with harsh truths u see people who are knotted up too tight where u don't think they could ever be unwound nothing is ever their fault, ever, and never will be there are lots of people like this on twtr, in 2-3 sentences u can immediately discern how someone handles accountability and responsability the human brain is frightening so thats P&L. 1. grinding charts/running screens I learned this from a boss back in the day, whose process wasn't too far off from this Stan Druckenmiller: Okay, so every night, at about 4:30, I get 272 charts. They cover just about every group in the stock market, every commodity, every currency cross I'm interested, in every fixed income market around the world. And they're basically daily, weekly, and monthly. Daily supposed to predict 8-20 days, weekly 8-20 weeks, and monthly 8-20 months. When I make an investment decision, it's usually--sometimes, believe it or not: The idea comes from the charts, but I will never invest just on a chart. But if I really like a fundamental thesis and the chart stinks, I won't do it. Druck trades macro, a L/S manager will have 500-1000 equity charts on top of that, diff time frames than Druck you can do it post-close or pre-open Druck and my boss were early AM, I always preferred doing it after the close 20-30 mins as a wind-down, just subconsciously uploading everything that happened during the day here is a free screener I have always used finviz.com/screener daily post-close, I do: descriptive tab: "mkt cap > $300m" technical tab: 52-week highs (1st screen) 52-week lows (2nd screen) thats two diff screens, 52-week highs, and 52-week lows, both with $300m min (smalls mkt cap) then, click "Charts" below all the toggles this shows u where $ is sloshing in and out of, what's working, what isn't u actually can use it for idea gen, because the market will always move first before anyone has spilled a drop of ink, price has moved everything is downstream of price so when u see an odd move in a name that everyone has forgotten about, a name you knew well at one point, but that no one is talking about... ...and suddenly its printing 52w highs, on volume, on no news? immediate "invest first and then investigate," in 24-48 hours you can get current odds are always way better than 51-49 that fundamentals are inflecting, these trades are high hit rate because it's all incremental buyers from here remember, no ink has been spilled yet and there hasn't been any news all u have is johnny-come-lately shorts getting taken out and the oddball deep value buyers, and now u prob have faster money, small L/S SM, prop desks, the minnows are there, the big fish Druck talks about this but the fast, hard part of the move, is always when there's no news and no logic...u buy off instinct, bc u recognize the pattern, but u know that u are making a straight tape read with no fundamental work backing it by the time the fundamentals justify the move that took place...half that shit is over this is why u want deep familiarity, 5-10 years in the same sector I haven't looked at something like Dillards in 8 years, 24-48 hours I'm current whereas if you said "go learn Micron" I'm years away once u understand a sector/industry, the financial statements pre-populate in your mind this is how u counter the "invest first, investigate later" like I have spent so many days of my life trading shit like apparel, u just develop familiarity with the way certain names trade and newsflow hits, it gaps up 10%, and you've seen this movie so many times that ur gut says "buy it up 12%, now" that response was created by the 4-5 times where I didn't buy it up 10% weird subconscious shit that develops just staring at tape all day and all night I run a few other screens too, all the sector ETFs like spdrs, plus the entire consumer cyclical subsector with mkt cap over $300m prob takes 20-30 mins but over many years, u will silently upload info on reading the tape, what happens "under the hood"....how the S&P can be flat but there can be a sea change under the surface I can't really explain why or how this works or why its worth doing, although if Druck is religious about grinding charts at 4:30 AM then there is prob some signal I'll do a better job on these in an article but u should be good to go, and on Finviz, just play around with that screener and all the toggles and tabs really great site, even when I'm paying for BBG I still just use finviz lol BBG is too slow and clunky on a lot of shit, this site just zips get used to just learning weird new tickers and chart patterns...whats this company, what do they do....ask LLMs and so on a certain type of brain will go down this rabbithole without me telling them to this is the shit that makes winners, winners I hate to say it, because markets aren't the NFL but it's the same principle...like, the guy who is putting in 1-2 hours daily, outside of work hours, grinding his P&L/blotter/losses, and grinding daily market action thru charts... that shit compounds, everything compounds, over 5-10 years these daily efforts become jaw dropping install these habits (and other good habits) and never break them, thats what determines success vs failure.....people with losing attitudes do not understand that every winner's story is this same sentence: "A Ten-Year Overnight Success Story." they see u in one day, on year 10, winning a title they don't see the 10 years of staring at ur fucking losses every day no one saw that that was u, in a dark room, all alone trying to fix what is broken in ur process, and what is broken within u as a man u will discover that the two are the same grab ur shovel and ur lunch pail... because its hard hat szn🪖 good luck trading

Back of the envelope $SPGI $SPGI trades for $120.82B market cap. Apply $MCO current 26.31x NTM multiple to $SPGI 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 business ($3.14B LTM operating profit) → $82.61B Apply $MSCI 27.20x NTM multiple to $SPGI 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 business ($1.33B LTM operating profit) → $36.17B 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 + 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 = $118.78B $SPGI entire market cap is $120.82B ___ You’re basically getting Energy (Platts), Market Intelligence, and the Mobility spin-off for free And here’s the value to those: 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 (Platts): $975M LTM operating income (14.72% CAGR from 2021–LTM) — Conservative 15x multiple → $14.63B 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞: $1.21B LTM operating income assuming 8.5x multiple (IYKYK) since according to Mr Market it’s never going to grow → $9.68B 𝐌𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 (spin-off): low-end $7B All together = $31.31B ___ 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞: ~$150B, or ~25% higher than today’s market cap (~$510 share price) — $118.78B + $31.31B = $150B All while margins keep expanding and >80% of FCF is returned to shareholders At some point, Mr Market will take notice For now, let the accretive buybacks continue ___ Post inspired by @moats_multiples who shared an excellent piece titled “Inside TCI’s Conference: The Anti-AI portfolio” — link below 👇🏽 moatsandmultiples.substack.com/p/inside-tcis-…