Remington Peters

Tankers increasingly out of position for a Hormuz reopening to ramp quickly. This should start to support the belly of the oil curve that had been pricing an acute but brief reopening glut as all of the loaded tankers in the gulf leave at once closely followed by rapid storage draws and loadings onto waiting ships. Now a reopening is likely to be fully constrained by how many tankers are in the area and how quickly record tanker rates can bring tankers back to the gulf to load. The uncertain timing assuredly means a period of extreme inefficiency where swathes of tanker reverse planned courses and an entire month where oil in transit drops sharply. The initial impulse of loaded tankers leaving the gulf barely keeps refiners off tank bottoms and supply chain chaos thereafter keeps refiners fighting each other for the few cargoes that can load from tankers in position… I’m thinking at least a month before enough ballasting tankers arrive to the gulf to meet desired export programs. Meanwhile oil field production restarts will need to be throttled until there is enough tanker offtake capacity. Months before things are “Normal”

The ship the U.S. seized in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend was headed from China to Iran and is linked to chemical shipments for missiles. It refused repeated orders to stop. Another reminder that China is helping prop up Iran’s regime—a reality that can’t be ignored.

Iran willing to attend second round of talks with US, Pakistan officials say: AP

Tanker reportedly comes under fire from IRGC gun boats while trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz