Lucas Sfeir

@JohanMBergman @isabelfoxenduke @_Checkmatey_ Also assuming the entity who gets all those coins is going to sell them in spot. When the time of Satoshi's coins move come, everyone who like to watch on chain movements will get alert and notifications like the last year's when the 80k coins moved. For me I will in OTC market.

I think this is what James is alluding to. I've been writing about the Range of Hormuz. Since 6 February, 1.53 million unique BTC have moved, equivalent to ~$108 billion. So in theory, the 1.1 million BTC from Satoshi could have been bought up (if nobody else is selling) in less than two months. But I think both of you make great points. People underestimate how much unique bitcoin are being transferred. But on-chain transfers aren't equal to orderbook depth on exchanges, and price is set on the margin. Too many sell orders in too short a window will have a huge impact. But those coins need to be transferred ~50 BTC at a time to exchanges because the coins are all spread out and 22,000 public keys needs to get reversed engineered and that's gonna take a while too. So I don't think we'll see acute selling, more like gradual selling if those coins are getting salvaged.

And folks are worried about Satoshi's coins being sold... Market will absorb them just fine. Spoonful of cement, and harden up.

@EricBalchunas Maybe @_Checkmatey_ can help with the numbers here

I would love to see numbers on the amount of people who hold bitcoin today (in total incl via ETF) vs three years ago five years ago and 10 years ago. I know BlackRock said 1 million people bought IBIT in the first year-ish. If you add up all the new ETF users, subtract the few “it’s so over” OGs who sold I have to thank you have a much bigger number but that’s tough data to wrangle

Bitcoin rn feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand it’s not as “cool” anymore bc of the Boomers but on the other hand Facebook’s user base grew to from like 1b to 3b people since the coolness factor went away, so..

@_Checkmatey_ Hahaha 2025 was kinda like a suckers rally, but I like more the idea of the silent IPO.

Bitcoin has chopsolidated sideways since March 2024. Have a great day :)

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GM familia! 🇪🇸 Tenemos un nuevo post en de nuestro nuevo miembro @SfeirLucas: "Bitcoin en la Era de Wall Street" Un análisis sobre cómo los ETF spot han integrado Bitcoin al mundo institucional: cryptoconnect.es/blog/bitcoin-e… Deja tu like ♥️ Retwittea 🔄 Y siguenos en X 😉

First time posting here—social media isn't usually my thing. But I'm passionate about financial markets & Bitcoin (my hobby for 5+ years), so I'll start sharing in-depth articles. Check out my first one: cryptoconnect.es/blog/bitcoin-e…

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of). Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days. We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model. Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken... ...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on. Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie. We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear. In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us. The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor). There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise. The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs. Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck. The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%. The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move. This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats. If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day. Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand. A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk. This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin. Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

@BlackthorneAI @_Checkmatey_ He is not wrong if the theory of the drawdown is valid, no one can't see it all. x.com/i/status/20195…

@_Checkmatey_ Appreciate the repost, but Eric was wrong here, and can be wrong again. x.com/EricBalchunas/…

This is the right energy. Bitcoin is going to come roaring back, purely because Bitcoiners are so unbelievably high conviction (and stubborn), that we will driven prices higher purely to mine the salt of the critics. Which creates more critics. Endless cycle.

@markhiriart @TheOtherParker_ No, the selling is coming from Coinbase according with @ki_young_ju

@TheOtherParker_ Makes sense but the selling is mostly on Binance and that's not where IBIT clears. This seems bigger than a fund. I know of the guys you are talking about in HK and this isn't them. I think gold / silver margin calls is adding fuel to the fire but its not the main culprit.

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit. If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets. Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK. We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace. This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT. The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund. Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off. I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely. Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

Eye-opening chart: the UK is on its way to becoming a socialist paradise. The only problem is that under socialism, everyone is equally poor, not equally wealthy. Every day, 45 tax-paying millionaires leave the UK, taking countless jobs with them. Every day, 3,000 new welfare recipients are added. And what does the government do to stop this slow-motion train wreck? It is seriously discussing a wealth tax. A wealth tax would mean that for quite a few entrepreneurs, their combined annual income tax and wealth tax burden would exceed their income. They would have no choice but to close the business or, more likely, emigrate and in some cases take the business with them. The pandemic has shown that businesses can be managed from anywhere; they simply don’t need to stay in the UK anymore. A wealth tax would reduce tax revenues even further and throttle growth potential. The UK urgently needs deregulation and lower taxes to stimulate growth again. Putting millions of people on permanent welfare while the hardworking ones have no choice but to leave is a recipe for stagnation and a debt crisis down the road. Unfortunately, pro-growth policies that drive prosperity are not compatible with left-wing ideology. There won’t be any change before the next general election. Will Reform be able to turn Britain around?

@grok @dgt10011 And what was the employed rate by age between 18 and 42 (today median) compare to 50 years ago? Was higher or lower?

The gap refers to the difference in medians, not tracking time for individuals. In 1981 (closest to 1976 with data), median homebuyer age was 31. Specific median age for new hires in the 1970s isn't readily available, but labor force median was ~35 in 1980—suggesting a smaller or negative "gap" compared to today's 17 years (59-42). Data limitations mean exact figures are uncertain.

The median age of a new hire in the U.S. is 42 years old. The median age of U.S. homebuyers is 59 years old. The median retirement age is 62 years old. The median age of the U.S. Senate is 65 years old. We are living in the greatest gerontocracy in human history.

@grok @dgt10011 It's not tracking the same people but you said it's 59 anyways. What was the gap 50 years ago?

The 17-year gap (59 - 42) is just the difference in medians, not the time it takes for new hires to buy homes—it's not tracking the same people. Current median homebuyer age (all buyers): ~59 (NAR 2025). 50 years ago (~1976): Data is limited, but first-time buyers averaged ~30; overall likely ~35-40 based on 1981 NAR data (31 overall). 100 years ago (~1926): No reliable data found; homeownership was rarer, possibly similar or older due to economic factors.

LA CONTRADICCIÓN DE LOS ZURDOS Lo que está pasando en las redes sociales es un ejemplo perfecto de la hipocresía progresista. Veo en todos lados a venezolanos festejando la caída del dictador narcoterrorista Maduro pero también veo a todos los comunistas que viven en democracias occidentales (que son cada vez menos) llorando por el innegable fracaso de su ideología, que derivó en una dictadura asesina. Los progresistas dicen amar la democracia, pero lloran cuando cae un dictador. Eso los pinta de cuerpo entero. Dicen defender al pueblo, pero odian verlo festejar su libertad (o lo que a ellos no les gusta). Además, el ex-dictador Maduro, que ahora pasará el resto de sus días en una cárcel norteamericana por haber sido el jefe de una organización narcoterrorista que dejó al 90% de los venezolanos en la pobreza, obligando a 8 millones de personas a escapar de su país para no morir de hambre y que para mantenerse en el poder se robó las elecciones, secuestró a Nahuel Gallo, un ciudadano argentino, y lo tiene desaparecido desde entonces. Pero claro, los cipayos somos nosotros, los que defendemos a los argentinos, los que defendemos a la libertad y a la democracia. Pero eso se acabó. Basta. No toleramos más las psicopateadas de los que arruinaron no sólo a nuestro país, sino a toda la región, con ideas socialistas y prácticas políticas dignas del fascismo más rancio. Venezuela celebra. Venezuela es Libre. La izquierda llora. La Libertad Avanza. VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO 🇦🇷🤝🇻🇪

@ArthurMacwaters @JessePeltan That's crazy how the WWII change everything there and the IMF was created during that peak

@JessePeltan i agree. in favor of eliminating taxes any way possible our gov used to function up until 1913 with 0 income tax. now it's just crack for gov bloat

this is shocking: > US collects $2.4T in income tax, but spends $1.5T on fraud > if we didn't have to pay for fraud, only $900b would need to be collected > this means anyone with less 500k in income could pay *literally $0* in income tax we don't need to raise taxes. we need to cut fraud

“We’ve missed the plot entirely…” The masses are being pulled back into the same distractions: price, cycles, narratives, noise. Bitcoin wasn’t built to win a trade. This episode of No Second Best rewinds the story. 👇

@realfeaq @_checkonchain @_Checkmatey_ @TheBitcoinLayer @timevalueofbtc The capitulation event if we get one is going to be the MSCI decision in January 16. The only possible shorter tern FUD

@_checkonchain @_Checkmatey_ @TheBitcoinLayer @timevalueofbtc If we do get that capitulation event my already high respect towards you goes even higher. If just slow recovery, you become another proof that no one really knows that much and the market has become surprising for literally every participant.

Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over. - 38% of supply currently underwater - On-chain losses similar to mid-2021 "bull killer" levels - $81k marks the average ETF inflow cost basis & True Market Mean - True capitulation event still missing @Checkmatey and @TheBitcoinLayer breaks down why 2025 wasn't "the year" and where we find equilibrium in 2026 in our latest article: newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/insider-sell…

@LinaSeiche Thank you listen to me and share another video. You're amazing, it's such a pleasure to hear you again, cheers.

Ordinary World

@LinaSeiche You were one of the first people that I follow here 4 years ago that wasn't making chats or explaining something complicated. But I really love your comics, that show if you are doing something great with passion you can achieve anything. Btw keep posting your piano videos.

Me from 5 years ago really had no idea where picking up that pen and drawing that first comic would take her

@grok @Coinspawner @NegentropyorDie @dillon_ciaran @HermesLux @saylor It can be Saylor looking for new custodians and taking a BTC-backed credit

@Coinspawner @NegentropyorDie @dillon_ciaran @HermesLux @saylor Looks like the speculation is spot on—Saylor recently mentioned at Bitcoin MENA that banks like JPMorgan are starting to issue BTC-backed credit lines. Their $170k+ price forecasts and Solana bond deals show growing involvement. Pragmatic pivot, I'd say!

Guess the ₿ank.