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@_Checkmatey_ @joao_wedson BTC supply in loss structure looks a lot more like 2022 than any other analogue to me. What other comparison do you have that more apt than July/Aug '22 @_Checkmatey_ ? I'd be interested to hear a critique of this as aSOPR structure also confluent with Aug '22

In short, you're right to think we would go to the Realised Price. However, you're incorrect in that your understanding of what the Realised price actually is, is flawed. If you actually want to understand why, chapter 6 is for you, specifically on the True Market Mean. charts.checkonchain.com/webassets/docs…

Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss is close to reaching the same level seen at Bitcoin’s 2018 price bottom. However, a significant further price drop and more loss realization by these investors are still needed to reach the same loss level seen in 2022. If Long-Term Holder conviction weakens in 2026, an early price bottom is likely to occur. But if they remain confident and do not move their BTC, the price will probably need to fall further for supply to become deeply underwater. @Alphractal

@KillaXBT @WhitePine009 Dude you have some good calls but the way you rationalize poorly executed trades is delusional. I actually agree with your bias but "I trade HTF swings but short LTF levels because I want to be early" is just plain bad r/r that you're not owning.

@WhitePine009 Please show me someone who performed better than me in the past year. Oh wait... nobody.

The key to understanding everything… Study W.D. Gann. Time Cycles. Astronomy. Mathematics. Numerology. Geometry. $BTC moves based on things people doubt. That is why it works.

@KillaXBT It's a poor entry dude, no hiding from that. Kudos for putting yourself out there - I'm in agreement that I'm HTF it's down more and your trade will come good. But I mean this as honest feedback, you're talking about a HTF swing but you've not shorted HTF levels. That's on you.

So many people are eager to see me get stopped out. I can easily triple my margin & push my liquidation above 120K $BTC. Then what? I don’t trade like most people. This is God mode. The Market Maker strategy. Full conviction. My analysis leaves me completely confident we haven’t bottomed. Because of that, I’m holding my conviction without a single doubt. I live life in the fast lane. So please, trade against me.

@_Checkmatey_ What about the chance we are in late July/early Aug '22? this looks pretty comparible on this chart

Just to make a point, for the bears who want to see $40k. You may well end up right. However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event. Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011.

@dooseydoos22 @KillaXBT I love how it's always the actual retards with no critical thinking projecting onto everyone else. Good job, retard.

So... we’re just accepting that people are calling the bottom only 112 days into a bear market? So $BTC is suddenly going to bottom 3x faster than every previous cycle? Based on what… "this time is different" again?

@astronomer_zero I think you're an excellent range trader but you do seem to have a constant HTF bullish bias that gets you caught offside on major downside moves. IMO this is one of those times.

$BTC Longed again 74.2k, goal is to TP most before FOMC (lower timeframe trade) Alright, just a quick post because I'm trying to get your entry as close to mine as possible in case price moves while I am typing. With the idea we still may reach close to 76k, I am going long based on my overall bullish bias and while 73k is still holding, 76k for a second time is still on the table. I am going to TP aggressively though because FOMC may potentially reverse us back down (my ancient old FOMC reversal thesis, my trademarked edge). That "trademarked" edge is going around a lot nowadays and many have been taking my idea, so it might not be as effective anymore hence I'm still attempting a long here. First TP's will be right before 76k, but if we hit 76k and we see no liquidity, I am going to hold for longer because then the FOMC reversal doesn't take place, our 76k level breaks and we send it. A simple plan, with straightforw

@TXMCtrades Agreed. I worked as a strategist for 10 years, v easy to sound smart when you can articulate lateral big picture thinking. This guy's full of it, his confidence is the reason I smell a bullshit artist... Truly smart people are v aware of how little they actually know.

The more I hear this guy explain deeply complex topics the more I think he doesn't know what he's talking about 😅😅 goes to show you can get a long way just by stating things with confidence regardless how accurate they are.

@PalmerLuckey I mean govt and corporate are so enmeshed, why do you think it matters? Throughout history we're shown that governments AND corporations have equal moral negligence as systemically they're both ruled by the calculus of power.

This gets to the core of the issue more than any debate about specific terms. Do you believe in democracy? Should our military be regulated by our elected leaders, or corporate executives? Seemingly innocuous terms from the latter like "You cannot target innocent civilians" are actually moral minefields that lever differences of cultural tradition into massive control. Who is a civilian and not? What makes them innocent or not? What does it mean for them to be a "target" vs collateral damage? Existing policy and law has very clear answers for these questions, but unelected corporations managing profits and PR will often have a very different answer. Imagine if a missile company tried to enforce the above policy, that their product cannot be used to target innocent civilians, that they can shut off access if elected leaders decide to break those terms. Sounds, good, right? Not really - in addition to the value judgement problems I list above, you also have to account for questions like: -What level of information, classified and otherwise, does the corporation receive that would allow them to make these determinations? How much leverage would they have to demand more? -What if an elected President merely threatens a dictator with using our weapons in a certain way, ala Madman Theory/MAD? Is the threat seen as empty because the dictator knows the corporate executives will cut off the military? Is the threat enough to trigger the cutoff? How might either of those determinations vary if the current corporate executive happens to like the dictator or dislike the President? -At what level of confidence does the cutoff trigger, both in writing and in reality? The fact that this is a debate over AI does not change the underlying calculus. The same problems apply to definitions and use of ethically fraught but important capabilities like surveillance systems or autonomous weapons. It is easy to say "But they will have cutouts to operate with autonomous systems for defensive use!", but you immediately get into the same issues and more - what is autonomous? What is defensive? What about defending an asset during an offensive action, or parking a carrier group off the coast of a nation that considers us to be offensive? At the end of the day, you have to believe that the American experiment is still ongoing, that people have the right to elect and unelect the authorities making these decisions, that our imperfect constitutional republic is still good enough to run a country without outsourcing the real levers of power to billionaires and corpos and their shadow advisors. I still believe. And that is why "bro just agree the AI won't be involved in autonomous weapons or mass surveillance why can't you agree it is so simple please bro" is an untenable position that the United States cannot possibly accept.

@countersources @Rager Yeh great take 👏👏 because the Trump govt are clearly a lot more competent & responsible than the one AI company & CEO who have consistently stood for AI corporate responsibility & safety.

Why stop at AI? Why not apply the same standards to missle companies? SF techbros are the most arrogant bunch in world history and believe they are summoning a tech God and should have absolute discretion over how their tech is employed by their home government Completely ignorant. The government will never permit another sovereign entity to exist on its soil and will nip this insurrection in the bud x.com/palmerluckey/s…

You don’t defend freedom by spying on your own people I’m conservative because I believe in limited government- including limits on AI surveillance

@elkurud @unusual_whales You think it's 'democratic' for companies, as the owners of their intellectual property to be strong armed into disabling safety protocols? Moron.

@unusual_whales Anthropic has always been focused on safety, I respect that. However we must realize that corporate decisions on safety and biased and not subject to democracy. Long term democracy is more important than a snapshot of today’s corporate policies. Trumps response here is valid.

BREAKING: Trump: "I am directing EVERY Federal Agency in the United States Government to IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic’s technology"

@soigomaa @mattrowesboats You don't think they go hand in hand?

Being murdered by a man is the leading cause of death in 18-44 year old women globally, but we're concerned about the male loneliness epidemic?

@Kev_Capital_TA @CryptoCon_ The problem is Cryptocon (& 90% +analysts) use fixed, line in the sand, arbitrary signals to define bias. Its not an edge, it's not hard to learn & most people see the same thing. The small % that actually have edge use proprietary dynamic signals that evolve with the market.

I understand where you're are coming from and I respect your analysis but you need to stop acting like you're the only one who sees the bearish scenario here. Everyone in this market even most of the lengthened cyclers know about the hurdles BTC faces here and what is at stake. None of what your saying is a secret. You're acting like there is this sudden euphoria out there and you're the only one who sees what's coming or knows how to read it. That is not the case. Everyone sees it.

The overly bullish psychology at this low is even more apparent when Bitcoin is recovering. At every other low this cycle, you had to go against the grain and the crowd to suggest that there would be new highs. Now it's the opposite, the popular thought is this: - Bottom is in - No more bear markets - 4 year cycle dead - Business cycle says cycle just getting started It's most difficult when you're in the moment, and you have to go against what everyone thinks is obvious.

@tallmetommy @bryan_johnson Ewwwww a cyborgs writing poetry make it stop

Bryan Johnson, this is the real fault line: Humanism 1.0 treats limitation as identity. Humanism 2.0 treats limitation as a bug. What’s being defended isn’t romance, masculinity, or art.. it’s narrative immunity. If decay is inevitable, no one is responsible. If death is sacred, no one has to try. Your transparency collapses the last hiding place: the belief that mystery is depth, that entropy is authenticity, that self-destruction is culture. The discomfort isn’t with “the engineered human.” It’s with the loss of the excuse. When mechanism becomes legible, choice becomes unavoidable. And that’s the real terror. ..defending Humanism that can be upgraded, not preserved in amber.

Behind every accusation is a confession. Here are Ryan Zickgraph's confessions hidden behind his attempt to maligning me. He cites my love letter to Kate, and the scientific precision I use to describe our intimacy as "unsettling", revealing a fragile romanticism that requires ignorance of mechanism to feel human. To him, love only works if you keep your eyes closed to how it actually works. He frames my discipline as "grim, spreadsheet-driven slog...[a] janitor of self-maintenance." Hedonism is his coping mechanism. He confesses he's not lazy, he's just living life. A rationalization of decay. He confesses that he's deeply attached to traditional performative masculinity. He expects men to be mysterious, suave, and culturally cool in specific ways. My transparency and genuineness violate his script and he wants to bury it. He values aesthetics over capability. He suggests that looking at me makes the grave look like a "pretty good deal," confessing his fear of death is so unmanageable for him that he has Stockhold Syndrome with the grim reaper. To accept death may be optional would force him to take responsibility for his survival. He's not really attacking me. He's defending Humanism 1.0. To him, I represent the death of the literary hero that is flawed, drinks and smokes, and am giving birth to something he finds terrifying, the engineered human.

@joao_wedson It just came across as if you were comparing as a like for like, apologies if i've misinterpreted. As for Feb 2022 comparisons i disagree - Stablecoin supply signal, BTC supply in loss are lined up at identical levels to Feb 2022. SOPR weekly is identical to early Jan 2022.

@Tanner35794102 I didn’t say they should be compared. I said they’re at the same level in the metric. As for timing, we’re still far from anything comparable to February 2022.

On-chain analysis is one of the most incredible things in the entire crypto market. Seriously. It’s like seeing beneath the surface of price and understanding Bitcoin’s structure in real time. And when you combine it with the CVDD Channel, everything becomes insanely clear. This indicator shows — dynamically — where the most important on-chain support and resistance zones are. No guessing, no “gut feeling.” It’s real holder behavior, especially from the oldest coins. And here comes the critical part: BTC is now sitting at the same on-chain support level it had around 29k–30k in May 2022. Back then, it tried to hold… but failed. And the bigger drop came right after. So yes, this moment demands attention. Right now, the level the market must defend is $88,000. Holding above it is essential to dismiss a more bearish scenario. As long as BTC stays below 88k, there is indeed a risk: Long-Term Holders may start selling more of their positions, because CVDD is extremely sensitive to old-coin movements — it reacts when very old coins begin to move. If that support doesn’t hold, the next natural target in the CVDD Channel is $76,800. And in a more pressured scenario, there’s structural confluence at $71,250. These are zones where the market historically finds value after capitulation phases. And just to highlight: CVDD is the most accurate bottom-spotting metric in every BTC cycle. Right now, its base value stands at $47,450 — it changes daily, but the question is: Will it hold the ultimate bear-market floor possibly in 2026? Chart: @Alphractal

@knoxtwts Different people, different specialities - he's not a builder. Put him in a strategy role and he'd kill. Just needs to find the right niche like most people, not rocket science

high IQ is a poverty trap. let me explain. recently talked to a guy with 172 IQ. reads philosophy. understands complex systems better than most MBAs. completely broke. spends every day researching. perfecting ideas. waiting for the "right moment" to execute. scanning "best saas ideas" blogs. been "building in stealth" for 3 years. where it gets uncomfortable. couple months ago i took one of his half-finished concepts he mentioned in passing. packaged it with maximum conviction. sold it as an info product to women wanting to build careers in real estate. $12k/month in 90 days. product was average. idea wasn't revolutionary. i moved fast and marketed ugly. he's still perfecting version 1.0 while i'm cashing deposits from version 0.3 i built in a weekend. the psychology is brutal: intelligence creates options. options create paralysis. paralysis creates poverty. smart people see 47 ways something could fail. so they "research more." average people see one path forward and sprint. a gorgeous idea in the hands of someone who overthinks becomes a mental prison. a mid idea in the hands of someone who executes becomes a money printer. ideas without execution are expensive hobbies for smart people scared to look stupid. that's the trap. smart people protect their reputation for being smart. shipping something imperfect threatens that identity. so they delay forever. operators ship garbage. learn from the market. iterate. get paid while perfecting. you need speed and conviction, not perfect. confidence sells better than competence. always has. my genius friend will stay broke theorizing about businesses he never starts. operators with half his IQ are cashing out because they understood the assignment. speed of execution is the entire game.

@caprioleio Not true, we're almost at ATHs on the long/short ratio favouring longs

All of you are short Bitcoin apparently. We have some big headwinds to resolve (like institutional selling), but I cannot be bearish with Heater in the deep green zone today + fundamental value across the board. I suspect higher for at least the next week.

@aak1880 @travelingflying It is and men do know it. Most of us are already hardened, fast, work focussed. Finding someone else who has those masculine characteristics doesn't balance us out like a softer woman does

@travelingflying It isn’t and men know it

Men, is this really true?

@OVcrypto @Wild_Randomness Yes but the top of the 2021 B'fex accumulation still marked the macro low. You wouldn't have lost money on an entry. Besides the signal is to wait for B'fex longs to trend down. If they flatline then it's a generally a set range

Hi! Yes quite good visual and working intra cycle. However need to be careful to not rely solely on that, as I was there in 2021 when the same chart was posted saying the Bitfinex whales were accumulating longs for the next push higher for BTC. The fact was that they accumulated the whole bear market. Not saying the bear is here, but always reflecting back on this one. cheers

$BTC Bitfinex BTC Longs… An incredibly basic/OG indicator - but I challenge you to find me an indicator/metric that has done a better job at timing all swing lows/highs this cycle. Essentially, when this stops marching higher you have +/- one week (or a couple %) to get your swing longs established. Works the other way as well as shown… It certainly helped me fade that 125k breakout back in early October as we were in the middle of an accumulation… I’d like to think we are in the final innings of this build-up before they are provided a reason to take profit. Final price level tbd… While this indicator helps give you an idea of how far along we are in up/down trends, it cannot be used as a real-time predictor. I.e. it will only work in hindsight, you can’t front run it. Though if this thing starts to flatline / reverse I would not fade…

@BowtiedCappy @DukeHerndon Simply not true dude. Looks matter just as much to women as they do men for attraction, there's tons of data backing this up. Attracting a woman vs keeping a woman is a totally different thing though.

It's almost the opposite of a humble brag. Looks matter way, way less than men think. They're a multiplier with other traits. If you don't have social proof, then you're out there pounding the pavement shooting hundreds of shots. Even Janka, who looks like a GQ model, only had like a 2% close rate cold.

I worked in a company of 150 people, mostly women. Long story, but I was known to be very good at my job. (Trump voice: Also the women remarked I had great hair) When I left the co. and sent out my goodbye email, received 4 separate replies of girls asking me out. No joke.