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@ThePoliEcon
Putting the 'poli' back into the 'econ'.
Katılım Mart 2012
82 Takip Edilen580 Takipçiler
Z retweetledi
First use will result in radiation on the Arabian peninsula. No way to do it without exposing the region to radiation and no way to do with without shutting gulf energy down entirely for a prolonged period. @ProfessorPape
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Z retweetledi
Iran exemption on Iraq crude exports will be contingent on a few variables:
1) Tankers stuck near the Iraqi ports will have to unload the crude first.
2) Empty tankers need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to await loading.
Onshore storage will have to drain, and then production will start.
3.4 million b/d of crude oil production gets unlocked.
Lead time to production restart: 6-8 weeks.
Impact on oil price: bearish.
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Z retweetledi
"Iran is deploying significant numbers of decoys," and US not sure how "many launchers it has destroyed were real." -NYT
Kosovo redux NATO claimed 120 tanks destroyed. Postwar count: 93. Serbs had fooled missiles with milk carton decoys/Yugo cars. A 🧵
nytimes.com/2026/04/03/us/…
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Now everyone knows.
x.com/ThePoliEcon/st…
Z@ThePoliEcon
Sounds like bluster but really isn’t. Five years ago when I started looking into US-CN assumed CN was backwards military power but when you look into details starting with no. of assets, tech, and capabilities then move into production capacity you quickly 👀
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Every year DOD reports the same ludicrous underestimate of Chinese strike missile inventory and launchers.
Please fucking wake up.
Abdolrasool Divsallar@Divsallar
In my view the key point was intelligence failure in assessing pre-war stockpile of missiles. The numbers were largely inaccurate and unrealistic. Iran has likely won the battle of ‘strategic deception’ about the size of its missile stockpile.
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Not a US Treaty Ally but a Major Non-NATO Ally and de facto party to conflict asking for a ceasefire
x.com/thatdayin1992/…
Hassan Mafi @thatdayin1992
Qatar has contacted Iran asking for a safe passage through the Straight of Hormuz in exchange for unblocking $6 billion of Iranian money, according to Iranian MP, Amir Hoseesin Sabeti.
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US treaty ally. Thailand, South Korea, Japan, France also looked liked they made side deal for safe transit with Iran.
Lose the ME, you lose Asia and Europe as well.
x.com/SecLazaro/stat…
Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro@SecLazaro
Productive call today with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi. Building on recent talks, we reached a positive understanding on the safety of our seafarers and the security of our energy supply. Grateful for the warm spirit of cooperation. 🇵🇭🇮🇷
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Is this the sea lanes that AUKUS is meant to protect? 🤔🤡
Candor@CandorAnalytica
Australia plans to exchange lithium ore, iron ore, and LNG priced and guaranteed in RMB for quotas on Chinese refined oil exports (via WFT) Compared to the previous ME deals in RMB, this one feels closer to the last days of the petrodollar
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Z retweetledi
Qatar has contacted Iran asking for a safe passage through the Straight of Hormuz in exchange for unblocking $6 billion of Iranian money, according to Iranian MP, Amir Hoseesin Sabeti.
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The Israelis have an inventory of domestically produced air-to-surface missiles, including ALBMs: Blue/Black/Silver Sparrow, ROCKS, Golden Horizon, Popeye, Delilah, RAMPAGE, Air LORA, etc. Some of these have surprisingly long ranges.
My suspicion (speculative) is that IAF overflights of Iran are exceedingly rare. The Israelis understand the danger of Iranian AD and have built their air doctrine around striking from long distance, while presenting a public image of directly overflying Iranian targets. This dates back at least to the October 2024 Israeli attack on Iran, where the final wave of attack aircraft aborted before entering Iranian airspace after a failed SEAD/DEAD wave.
NSD@nsd3011
@ripplebrain How do they do CSAR operations but need stand off weapons for raids? Also, the Israelis seem to be having no trouble?
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NATO was intentionally structured to cover a limited geographical range because the US didn't want to fight in third world colonial wars of its European junior partners. The tables have now been turned, with Europeans using the same limitations not to engage in global conflicts alongside America.
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Can’t believe they are restarting discrimination against Catholics again.
Are Catholic Presidential candidates going to be accused of popery? 😂
Jennifer Bendery@jbendery
NEW: The Pentagon today invited more than 3,500 employees to attend a Good Friday service at its in-house chapel. Except it’s only for Protestants, not Catholics. huffpost.com/entry/news-liv…
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NEW: The Pentagon today invited more than 3,500 employees to attend a Good Friday service at its in-house chapel.
Except it’s only for Protestants, not Catholics. huffpost.com/entry/news-liv…
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😂
Christopher Hale@ChristopherHale
NEW: For the first time in modern history, the Pentagon offered no Good Friday services for Catholics. While Catholics don't celebrate Mass on Good Friday, they do venerate the cross of Jesus Christ and receive the Eucharist. Earlier this year, Pete Hegseth invited his pastor to speak at the Pentagon. That pastor has called for banning public expressions of Catholicism in the United States. thelettersfromleo.com/p/trump-vance-…
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Back in 2025/5, China, Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan signed agreement for rail corridor to Europe thru these countries.
This promotes regular rail service, improved throughput, inspection & cross-border customs cooperation. They'd all collect tolls. Improved service also allows for supply chain & industrial parks to be built in bw.
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Since 2025/5, China established regular rail freight traffic from Xian to Tehran thru Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan.
This reduced travel time from 30-40 days over sea to just 15 days. China supply chain + machineries to Iran in return for oil products. Why this is important?
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Amazing how this multi-part message conveniently but awkwardly omits why Iran chose to "weaponize" the Strait of Hormuz. This is bizarro world diplomatic messaging.
Senator Penny Wong@SenatorWong
I joined over 40 countries on a call on the Strait of Hormuz as part of Australia’s support for international efforts to reopen the critical waterway. I thank @YvetteCooperMP for convening the meeting with representatives from every continent, and organisations including @IMOHQ.
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Australian national leaders are for the large part glorified provincial leaders.
Not statesmen. Which is fine. Theres no shame in that.
But it means you need to stop larping as a great power. Playing in arena where you’ve got no idea what you are doing
Aidan Morrison@FootnotesGuy
“The only major economy more exposed is Australia.” What an indictment of the last couple of decades of Australian political leadership.
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“The only major economy more exposed is Australia.”
What an indictment of the last couple of decades of Australian political leadership.
Ed Conway@EdConwaySky
👀Britain went into this energy crisis with one of the lowest levels of physical fuel stockpiles - both kerosene (jet fuel) and diesel - of any developed economy. The only major economy more exposed is Australia. More in the video👇
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