Tom

18K posts

Tom

Tom

@Tom_Suttles

Actually some both-sidesism can be good.

Katılım Mart 2018
1.9K Takip Edilen319 Takipçiler
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna
When I was in the military, they warned us about people like @RepJoeWilson: “old men talking while young men die.” Joe Wilson has been in Congress for decades and seems to spend more time traveling on CODELs than in his own district. On a few occasions, he’s even asked to take photos with me, which is very odd for someone who now attacks peace talks. At any rate, Joe, you should probably stop wearing a foreign flag on your lapel and start acting like an American. I’m sure your constituents wouldn’t appreciate what you’re up to.
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Tom
Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@TheStalwart @JavierBlas I believe this is because oil market participants as a group have converged on the current price as the best estimate for the net present value of future cash flows.
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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the highs of the month, but, as @JavierBlas pointed out, far below the 2022 highs?
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
I don’t think they would have mismanaged their water crisis so severely if they had plenty of money to spare. Nor would the rial have depreciated so much over the last 15 years. Their domestic mismanagement shows resources were quite scarce and that they prioritized IRGC/proxy capabilities over other pressing needs.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
@Tom_Suttles Iran always had plenty of money to fund whatever it wanted, with or without JCPOA. that's just a lie that was put out by war supporters.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
The JCPOA was criticized for kicking cans down the road and not solving them (which hawks characterized as "Iran can get a nuke as soon as 2026"). This is the criticism of the simpleton. in fact, many international problems have been solved or abated by kicking it down the road.
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@dilanesper In the case of the JCPOA, the proceeds from sanctions relief allowed the IRGC to significantly increase its funding of proxies and ballistic missile development. That arguably left us worse off than before.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
If it didn't, you were basically not any worse off than you were before. If it did, you could build on the success. Either way, it isn't responsive to this approach to say it was just delaying. Delay is an important part of foreign policy!
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@dilanesper It wasn’t just Likud that disliked the JCPOA. A significant portion of the Israeli electorate felt betrayed by it. The irony for Likud critics is that the JCPOA is probably the main reason Likud has been able to maintain nearly uninterrupted power since then.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
4. The JCPOA was good and probably would have worked but Likud disliked it because their argument about nukes was pretextual to a desire to go to war with Iran. 5. Attacking Iran was a terrible idea for the US and the world. 6. Attacking Iran was also a bad idea for Israel.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
Several things can all be true at once: 1. Israel was justified in waging war on Hamas in response to October 7. 2. Israel has every right to be pissed at Iran for all sorts of reasons (Hezbollah, funding Hamas, etc.). 3. Iran didn't do October 7. Hamas did.
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@JeraldV @kinsellawarren What was the best way to deal with their ballistic missile program?
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Jerald
Jerald@JeraldV·
There’s a very good argument that the JCPOA was the way to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat and that Trump torching that deal is what necessitated the much more difficult and costly regime change operation. The bad decisions have compounded to a point where there are zero good exits.
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Warren Kinsella
Warren Kinsella@kinsellawarren·
The war against Iran's Islamic regime was justifiable for any one of many reasons: they were building nuclear weapons, they are funding terror groups, they have brutalized their own people. It's a just war for those reasons. But the wrong leaders have overseen it, which dooms it. If Trump falsely declares victory and withdraws, things will be worse than before it started.
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@GM6603 @danishacarterr The person in the quoted post hasn’t expressed a word of dismay regarding the estimated 7000-36500 killed by the IRGC and Basij in January, so you’ll have to forgive me for doubting their concern is motivated by empathy.
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Gavin
Gavin@GM6603·
@danishacarterr What is the point of this level of nastiness? Someone can understand the selfishness of humanity but still reflect on how it makes them feel when given a major relevant example. Your superiority complex only contributes to the lack of societal empathy, grow up
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danisha carter
danisha carter@danishacarterr·
you’re actually too stupid to talk about politics if it surprises you that people care more about what directly impacts them than what impacts other people
onion person@CantEverDie

it’s incredibly blackpilling to me that it takes rising gas prices and rising gas prices alone to have people turn against the war in iran, and not the american government murdering thousands of children and civilians in iran. americans are incredibly selfish

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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@ZaidJilani What gives AIPAC more influence than any other interest group of a similar size?
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@inteltakes @shashj A one-time pad is the only encryption method that is mathematically proven to be unbreakable when done correctly.
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Intel Takes
Intel Takes@inteltakes·
@shashj There is a reason why nobody in the Western world uses them. It is a terrible communication channel (not to mention efficiency and security problems).
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@Faytuks Do you know what incident the parachute video is from?
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Faytuks News
Faytuks News@Faytuks·
The video of the parachute is not related to this. The other video related to a MiG-29 is also not related. No footage of this incident yet.
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Faytuks News
Faytuks News@Faytuks·
BREAKING: A US aircraft has crashed in Iraq's Basra province and security forces are searching for the pilot, Basra Police tells @RudawEnglish
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@SargonAlmighty @AstorAaron “Prevent” was probably the wrong word, but they could pass a resolution registering their disapproval for the record.
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Aaron Astor
Aaron Astor@AstorAaron·
Predictably, Iran rejected US demands re: total dismantling of its nuke program. Modi has left Israel. Two US aircraft carriers are in the Middle East. I'd guess airstrikes are coming after 4pm on tomorrow (Friday). The public has had very little discussion and debate over this.
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@laurnorman I guess we’ll see how the weekend goes.
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@BarakRavid Really hard to believe this is true.
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OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the indirect U.S.-Iran talks today, has said that today's talks have now finished and both sides will consult with their governments after "significant progress" was made. However, the next round of talks will not happen at the decision-maker level and instead at the technical level in Vienna, Austria, next week.
OSINTdefender tweet media
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Tom
Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@thisisMSH @gbrew24 To the extent their “peaceful intent” was ever credible, that is no longer the case given the reconstruction work that has been ongoing at Isfahan and Parchin.
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مرزا شانے حیدر 🇮🇳
@Tom_Suttles @gbrew24 Even according to Israeli intelligence, Iran hasn't even shown intent to weaponize their nuclear program in the last 20 years. That's why whenever Netanyahu says that Iran is weeks away from building nuclear weapons he adds in the end "if they chose to do so".
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Trump can choose to frame the deadlock in negotiations how he wants, but choosing to highlight this specific issue suggests his commitment to diplomacy may not be that strong.
Bret Baier@BretBaier

.@POTUS about SOTU on Iran 🇮🇷 “Important negotiations Thursday in Geneva. Iran desperately wants a deal. But Iran just can’t say the sacred phrase ‘we won’t build nuclear weapons’. “

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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@thisisMSH @gbrew24 Is the upgraded high-explosive containment vessel under reconstruction at Taleghan 2 intended for peaceful purposes?
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@yashar A weekday when markets are open would be very unlikely (though not impossible if waiting would endanger the mission).
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Yashar Ali 🐘
Yashar Ali 🐘@yashar·
I think this is right. I would be very surprised if the US conducted strikes in Iranian territory while Prime Minister Modi was in Israel or was about to land in Israel. Not only because India is a US ally but also due to President Trump’s personal relationship with Modi. Now if Modi’s plane doesn’t take off or he delays his trip by one or two weeks that’s a whole different story.
Lahav Harkov@LahavHarkov

I was also thinking this - that the Modi visit defers any strike on Iran and the next round of talks come the day after. Interesting analysis:

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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@gbrew24 He means they won’t commit to the provisions that would prevent a nuclear weapon (zero enrichment/limits on missile program).
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
The reason, in case it isn't clear: Trump says the Iranians won't say something they've been saying, publicly and repeatedly.
Gregory Brew tweet media
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Tom@Tom_Suttles·
@CoreyWriting Good reminder to vote in Republican primaries. (also Fishback is very unlikely to win)
Tom tweet media
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