Vaccine Course

@TotalDesolation @OGGamersFall @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Name the strategic win you believe your tactics will achieve. I'm saying that only negotiations will get the USA anything it wants. You are the one making the claim of something better.

@VaccineCourse @OGGamersFall @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Why do you think the US has to have regime change or shrink territory held by Iran to get a favorable outcome?

If you’re trying to spin high oil prices as good for the US, that’s a messaging battle you won’t just lose. You’ll get absolutely nuked going into the midterms. There’s one way out of this, and it’s removing Iranian control of the Strait.

Suuuuure. And of course with no boots on the ground. Pure fantasy. "Air power alone is not going to bring down a regime.” — General David Petraeus (U.S. Army, 4-star general and former commander of U.S. Central Command) "I can’t guarantee [victory] with air power alone." — General Wesley Clark (U.S. Army, 4-star general and Supreme Allied Commander Europe) "Military victories cannot be achieved through air power alone" — Major General G.D. Bakshi (Retired, Indian Army) "Air power is amazing, and has proven effective, but wars are rarely won by air power alone." —Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward (U.S. Navy, former Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command) "You may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it, and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men into the mud.” — Lieutenant Colonel T.R. Fehrenbach (U.S. Army, Korean War veteran and military historian)

@VaccineCourse @OGGamersFall @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate With drones, lasers and advanced orbit-based ISR today, you might as well be citing war games from the Bronze Age. Control the strait and offer fair terms where both sides concede. If Iran doesn't want peace, escalate until they do.

But how do you propose that he win this war? How come I cannot find a war game in which Iran loses? Millennium Challenge 2002 — red team wins Brookings Institution ~2010 — iran lays mines in the Strait and wins Internal Look 2012 (CENTCOM) — Israel gets a first strike, it sparks a regional war, and Iran keeps the uranium There are a bunch more from RAND etc. This war cannot be won militarily. Find me a war game that shows how it can be done otherwise it's just fantasy.

@OGGamersFall @VaccineCourse @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Him threatening to climb to the top of the escalation ladder only to backtrack has made his threats worthless. Time for talk is over.

@OGGamersFall @TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate You are watching too much Fox News. Name a single strategic goal the USA has achieved. Hint: the list is empty

@VaccineCourse @TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Lol this is hilarious. Iran doesn't have nukes yet. They are our bitch, but you are their bitch.

@WarlordDilley @Novaccineforce @realDonaldTrump Yes. We know that he is experiencing early stage dementia.

If you think President @realDonaldTrump is EVER going to let the 2020 election fraud go, you're absolutely dreaming! He won't stop until he and everyone who supported him is vindicated!

@yoyoy8360684056 @VolunteerJim @JayinKyiv They do but not as advanced. About 12 months ago they were ahead but now it's Ukraine in the lead

@VolunteerJim @JayinKyiv У России нет Дронов?

Russia's most popular military blogger Rybar, breaks several items of bad news to the millions of viewers. – no more mechanized tank assaults - Ukraine's long range drone strikes cannot be stopped because russia lacks air defenses - even if Russians war to manage to advance, it would change nothing

@Vikingsfortruth @VolunteerJim @JayinKyiv And your evidence for this is....? I think you made up this "fact."

@VolunteerJim @JayinKyiv Holy fuck you're actually the biggest retard I've seen post on here today. You do realize Russia has developed and produces more advanced drones as well as more in quantity.

@OGGamersFall @TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Only if you want Iran to cut all the Internet cables and destroy all the desalination plants, you know?

@VaccineCourse @TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Turning the entire IRI to rubble still is on the table ya know?

Lol. The desal pants aren't defended and the US bases are all destroyed and have been evacuated. The USA has lost. The GCC countries are toast if this continues. Iran has PLENTY of missiles and drones to destroy life in the GCC countries. Now, Trump is just stupid enough (he started this after all) to risk those countries so you too will see how 40 years of Iran preparation for this day will demonstrate the limits of us power.

@VaccineCourse @Radar625148 @RJLDilkie @BrettErickson28 Do you understand how dumb it comes off showing a hit and presuming one projectile was needed? Do you understand how CEP and stats work? Iran launched thousands of missiles since 2024. A small % were attempted and failed intercepts. A smaller % hit targets. You're useless

The Iranian regime has outplayed Trump throughout this conflict. Full stop. I wish, genuinely, that I didn't need to say this, but ignoring the reality would not make me "patriotic". Addressing the situation the United States now faces does not make me "treasonous", it makes me "realistic". Here is the reality of the Iran War as I see it: 1) The United States conducted attempted decapitation strikes on the first day of the war, assassinating the Ayatollah. It goes without saying that the Trump Administration hoped that the initial "shock and awe" would be enough to bring Iran to the negotiating table. It was not. 2) In return, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of the world's energy and fertilizer supply. 3) The United States then initiated a massive bombing campaign that WAS militarily successful. If you have followed me for the past 6 weeks (I just set up my twitter recently), you will know I am very much opposed to how Trump has handled this conflict. I am not entirely opposed to him LAUNCHING the campaign, I understand the rationale behind it, but I very much am opposed to how he has navigated it thus far. 4) In retaliation for this massive bombing campaign which... basically wiped out the entire Iranian leadership (yes, there are some who survived, but largely success from a purely military perspective TACTICALLY), Iran then lashed out at their Gulf neighbors. This was underscored by the Iranian strikes on the South Pars Gas Field in Qatar. Qatar's North Dome supplies ~20% of the world's LNG. Iran's strikes knocked off ~17% of that total production, and it will take ~5 years to repair. That is 3.4% of the world's LNG supply taken off line. In addition, various other energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf was taken out of commission. 5) After a long period of trading strikes, on April 7th, the United States and Iran agreed to what was "supposed" to be a two-week ceasefire. The "ceasefire-yness" of this is... questionable... 6) On April 13th, the United States implemented a "blockade of the blockade". By definition, this is an act of war, and this is significant to understand when discussing the 60-day War Powers. However... this is America, so who cares! The intent of this blockade was to produce oil well shut-ins and terminal hyperinflation within 13 DAYS. That number is very important to remember. 13 days. Did you forget? 13. Days. It has now been 28 days... 7) Skip forward to modern day, May 11th, and multiple rounds of negotiations have failed. Multiple attempts at a second round of in-person negotiations in Islamabad have been canceled as a result of the United States refusing to lift the blockade. The most recent Memorandum of Understanding put forth between the US and Iran was still worlds apart. 8A) Two things are now clear as it relates to the current situation the United States, Iran, and the World now face. 8B) The first is that the blockade has failed catastrophically to produce the intended effects. That DOES NOT mean that it "militarily failed". You can argue the semantics of that all you want, but at the end of the day, it boils down to this simple question for me as per the efficacy militarily: "did Iran's exports fall as a result of the blockade?". That answer is yes. You can argue the details further, but that is irrefutably true. However... and this is what TRULY matters when assessing the success of the US blockade and overall "Operation Economic Fury" campaign: "did the Iranian regime collapse, or did Iran make substantial concessions at the negotiating table?". That answer, clear as day, is NO. 8C) The initial phase of military strikes from the United States on Iran were tactically successful, but strategic unsuccessful. That is a key difference to understand (I'm looking at you Pete Hegseth. More boom no good). And after now 34 days of the initial ceasefire taking hold, and 28 days since the US imposed the Blockade of Iran, there is very little support domestically within the United States to resume military strikes on Iran. 9) As a result of 8B and 8C, we are now left with the following situation: - The Blockade of Iran has miserably failed to achieve the stated objectives, and disastrously overpromised and underdelivered in terms of timeline to oil well shut-ins, terminal hyperinflation, and the intended end goals of regime change or diplomatic concessions. - Appetite for further military action is at an all-time low, and it is very questionable whether or not anything short of boots on the ground would change this situation. Additional clarification: boots on the ground is ALSO highly unlikely to produce any of the intended effects, and is logistically a non-starter in terms of timeline. 10) Final point: You don't have to like it. You don't have to be happy about it. But it is clear that Iran holds a substantial advantage at this point. They entirely control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with almost no vessels transiting in the past week. Iran still retains a significant amount of their pre-war levels of Shahed drones and anti-ship missiles. They also have substantial asymmetric warfare capabilities beyond this with divers and limpet mines, fast boats with small arms fire, ability to lay mines in the Strait, and other remaining means. Iran has a long runway until they are forced to shut-in. Likely >45 days from today, which would be 73 days in total from imposition of blockade to shut-in... a bit different that the initial 13 day projection. This likely can be extended to closer to 100 days in total through additional emergency measures. Further military strikes on Iran are unlikely to produce results that were unable to be achieve in the first phase of military strikes prior to the questionable ceasefire. It is for this reason, that the conclusion can be drawn that Iran holds substantial leverage at the negotiating table with the United States. 13 millions barrels per day are being removed from the market. 20% of global fertilizer is not reaching the market at a critical time for food production. Every day that passes, Iran gains more leverage... and they know it. 11C) Conclusion: It is now clear that Donald Trump has two remaining options... neither of which are enviable. - Double down on military action, knowing full well that it will have significant domestic backlash in the United States, and still only amounts to the football equivalent of a Hail Mary. - Make significant concessions at the negotiating table, including several unsavory capitulations that will come to define his presidential legacy. He will certainly try to spin this as a win at home, but all but his most ardent supporters will see through this for what it is: a historic failure. That is what this conflict has boiled down to. A low-likelihood Hail Mary that would potentially only dig the hole deeper, or massive concessions that will forever define his presidency. I cannot say which path President Trump will choose, but it is irrefutable that he has failed in this Iran Conflict to an extent that it now looks increasingly likely that this will forever be his legacy. Failure.

@LiuInTheShadows "Iran agreed to remove all the uranium". Who told you this nonsense? And why on Earth did you believe them?

NOBODY IS TELLING YOU HOW CLOSE THIS DEAL ACTUALLY CAME — AND WHY IT JUST FELL APART. Everyone is watching the press conference clips. Nobody is explaining what Iran actually did. Here's what happened: Iran verbally agreed to remove all enriched uranium from the country. That was May 9, 2026. Then they submitted their written proposal. The uranium removal wasn't in it. Trump waited four days for a document that should have taken ten minutes to write. What arrived was missing the one thing the U.S. said was non-negotiable. Iran holds hundreds of kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% — enough to build multiple nuclear weapons if pushed to 90%. The U.S. has been watching that stockpile. Trump has publicly said the U.S. will eventually obtain it, one way or another. Iran's position: they'll dilute it. Store it in a third country. But they won't put removal in writing. That gap — between what they say in the room and what they're willing to sign — is why Trump just called the talks "on massive life support." They're showing you a frustrated president at a press conference. They're NOT showing you that Iran verbally crossed the most important red line in the negotiation — then walked it back the moment it had to go on paper. A verbal agreement that disappears in the written draft isn't a negotiation. It's a stall. if you're not following me you're finding out about this 48 hours late from someone who read my post..

Look at how precise this single strike was: exactly where the equipment was located in the plane (the assumption is that they got access to Russian or Chinese spy satellites images). There is zero question about Iranian missile accuracy. A missile in each desal plant and it's anarchy and millions of refugees in the Gulf countries. It would basically be the end of them. Take two nights to destroy ten plants if you feel one night isn't enough. Either way, in no time they would be destroyed. Israel has an elaborate water distribution system (with high over-capacity) that means there is no single point of failure. It would take destroying three plants to give them a serious problem. But it's not like that for the other countries.

@VaccineCourse @Radar625148 @RJLDilkie @BrettErickson28 Way overhyping iran. Actual strikes caused limited damage; plants kept operating. GCC has storage for days/weeks, redundancy, dispersed sites. Iranian missiles bad CEP means one rarely disables a major complex. 1 night time frame is a crazy fantasy. Do better.

@TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate The USA has lied about all their reports. The fact is that the USA doesn't know how many of each type of armament Iran has.

@VaccineCourse @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate And the US has claimed to have sunk all subs including the 10-20 operational midget subs. Maybe 1 or 2 are left.

@TotalDesolation @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Ukraine took out Russian ships with water-based drones and missiles. Iran has those and mini submarines with torpedoes as well as fast-attack boats with heat-seeking rockets. The Strait is armed to the teeth. One US ship gets sunk and the whole initiative will stop.

@VaccineCourse @OneFlewOver_USA @bonchieredstate Which is why we got thousands of drone defense drones from Ukraine. They're the best at shooting down drones on Earth. Why are you all so defeatist and want to lose? I was opposed to the war before it started because of this pickle Trump put us in, but now we're here. Tick tock.

@BrettErickson28 @RubberneckingS You keep saying that but don't provide evidence. This war was started by the USA and its allies and Iran defended itself

@RubberneckingS Both sides have fault here. Implying otherwise is just ignoring reality.

@alevsobe @Radar625148 @RJLDilkie @BrettErickson28 Iran has already issued desalination plant target lists and the undersea cables they would cut. For the desal plants it's just one missile each. They could destroy the ability for the Gulf countries to exist in literally a single night.

@Radar625148 @RJLDilkie @BrettErickson28 If iran did that, every power plant and refinery in iran would be destroyed. There would be only a failed country, nobody will be subjugated. And iran would be dark, starving, and thirsty befire they could finish the job

@alevsobe @BrettErickson28 Americans wouldn't pay reparations. Iran's plan is to get that from the $2MM tolls.

@BrettErickson28 And you aren't addressing what americans think of paying reparations and submitting to iran

@alevsobe @ColoRocko @BrettErickson28 They would collect their toll, yes.

@ColoRocko @BrettErickson28 What concessions? Give iran tens or hundreds of billions of dollars and agree they control the strait?

@Brian2548777490 @bonchieredstate Ease off of Fox News bit by bit. If you go cold turkey, you might get a brain aneurysm.

@bonchieredstate The problem is the average American has no real idea of the threat Iran posed to the world. They were planning a global jihad and were close to achieving it. Gas prices would have been irrelevant compared to the catastrophe that would have been.

@ursuscamp @bonchieredstate The iceberg of extraordinarily high prices is about to hit regardless of what Trump does next. We're just about through the buffers in the system.

@bonchieredstate That will make things worse not better, since the only way to “remove” Iran is full blown war, which will result in an astronomical rise in oil prices.