Wes

@illmalec He's just a good football player

if you don't like a 1st round prospect as much as i do it's because you're overthinking.

@PFF_Moo @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 True although pick swaps can help you to close the gap on this a bit. Future picks too in theory but there isn't a standard discount rate for those.

@WesEss01 @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 Also teams don't have trade value readily available on a continuous spectrum, since they just have a pretty small number of picks to use in a trade, so there will always be noise for single trades.

The nerds have lost the battle for draft capital trade valuation. Teams really are not moving any closer to the outcome-based style of trade charts that analytics/cap experts have published in the last few years, and I’m not sure there has been enough introspection as to why

@PFF_Moo @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 This draft may be telling. CLE at 6 is one to watch. Berry has traditionally gotten good value in moves down but to get a deal done this year (especially if for a non premium position) they may need to take less, given the lack of star talent at the top.

@WesEss01 @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 yeah you will find some of these trades, but overall these don't happen enough to get even close to a new equilibrium as of now

@PFF_Moo @reinhardNFL @Jacob_817 There is an obvious reason for a team to set a lower price: no one is willing to pay the historical price to move up, but the team trading down would still, in its view, get excess value in a move down for a lower price. Eg the Vikings/Lions trade in 2022.

the other thing is that let's assume there is a team that fully adopts the outcome-based trade charts. When they trade down, there is no reason for to set the trade value accordingly, because they can just use the existing market and go with that. As far as trading up goes, I guess the logicial conclusion from the research on trades and trade value is to just not do that as often. This is way easier to adopt to than to convince another team on your individual new understanding of trade value. Isn't that what Kwesi did to some extent? He eventually traded up for Turner when his job was on the line. So even a team fully adopts to it, we still wouldn't really observe it all that much.

@illmalec @ahmad_dahman Starting to think Fano is the most likely guy if they stick at 6. Multiple years of production, young, good testing.

@ahmad_dahman Berry was definitely in mind with that tweet. Browns twitter seems convinced it's Freeling or Tate which makes me feel like AB will take neither.

Browns fans relate

@Clevta @SethWalder And an OL coach in Tony Sparano Jr who is widely considered to be one of the best vs a mixed at best infrastructure in Houston.

with all due respect. Giving HOU an A and bashing Howard to the Browns for swapping Howard for Smith and only citing block rates is kind of nuts. I know u touched on it but Smith has missed at least 4 gms in 3 straight seasons and 4 of the last 5 yrs. All the while with median to below median block/pressure rates. I mean Smith was cheaper for a reason

We're up to 50 transactions in my free agency and trade grades story here. Including Daniel Jones and Trey Hendrickson contracts from earlier today! espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

@Clevta PFF projections are basically useless since Stainbrook left. Look at what they had for Phillips too. Laughable

Holy smokes. I thought the Browns could get involved but talk about above expectations. PFF projecetd 1- $3.5m LMAO!

@FB_FilmAnalysis I don't think a single Browns fan would agree with this assessment.

@illmalec Am I correct in assuming from your comments on the Ravens run game this year that you aren't a Warhop fan?

@reinhardNFL Agree with the caveat that if you take this approach, you need to be willing to invest early in the draft. Which Buffalo has done to an extent (Coleman, Shakur), just with mixed results.

Been going on for a while, but someone like Alec Pierce is going to be pushing for $20m APY this offseason, which is a top 5 highest paid player on your team without being a top 32 player at his position. Can’t blame teams for opting out of that arms race if they think they can.

Can’t lose your WR1 to injury when you don’t have a WR1 to begin with

@illmalec Are you actually that down on him?

Take my coach, please.

@Nate_Tice This appears to be a direct shot at Cleveland media that created conspiracy theories he was involved in play calling. Still not a smart thing for him to say, given how few people understand the context.

his first instinct was to pass the buck man he was perfect for an NFL front office

😐

@Nate_Tice Where are you on Stefanski / the offensive scheme at this point?

tbf my main concern was with the plan for the OL after this season. Especially if they're going to drop in a rookie QB. But, ya, it did look like a thin (and older) group going into the season and here we are.

@Nate_Tice Very understandable! Loved hearing the Huntington shout out

@WesEss01 you're absolutely right! I was just trying to riff on some of the auxiliary players off the top of my head. Harris has been good on his snaps too, though!

@Nate_Tice You guys have a couple times said Shelby Harris is having a good year for the browns. Shelby is barely playing. You mean Maliek Collins. He's balling, just want him to get his due!

@robertmays Mostly how I am too but the PTA/Leo combo got me on Google maps looking at the Indianapolis IMAX. Like when your favorite band announces a show at Red Rocks.

@WesEss01 I'm honestly not too picky about it. More about convenience of timing and proximity.

Today...we go to the movies.

@reinhardNFL Touché

I would say yes! The Browns have had 25 pass attempts this year that have been 15 or more yards past the LOS. Top 10 in terms of count and middle of the pack in terms of rate. x.com/WesEss01/statu…

Calls for a Browns QB change are not unwarranted given how poor the offense has been, but I think a lot of folks underestimate how going from Flacco to a rookie obscures the ability to evaluate the other 10 players on the field (and the play-caller, frankly)

@reinhardNFL But is Flacco capable of throwing down field at this point? His lack of mobility and inability to navigate the rush is a problem.

Cedric Tillman is an example of a player who would be eligible for an extension after this season that you'd really like to get a good feeling for. Will be far more difficult to get him involved if you have a QB that isn't capable of pushing the ball downfield.

@comahan Pretty close to mine and my order may vary depending on the day you ask me. Excluding Hard Eight (which I don't really count), Magnolia is the only one I can't quite get there on / am not planning to re-watch ahead of OBAA.

Typical qualifier that every single one of these movies are at least 4/5 for me, and that I think they're all brilliant in different ways. He doesn't miss, I just like some of them a little more than others for different reasons.