Ankit Agarwal

$AMZN AWS CEO on the impact of AI on jobs: "I can tell you we are hiring just as many software developers as we ever had inside of Amazon. And in fact, I see the demand for that really accelerating...Amazon is hiring 11,000 new SDE interns and full-time employees this year. That is not jobs going away"

Shocking stat of the day: AI-related stocks now reflect a record 45% of the S&P 500's market cap. This percentage has surged +20 points since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched. Furthermore, a record 15.4% of investment-grade debt is now tied to AI, making it the largest sector in the US credit market. This percentage has risen +3.5 points since 2020. This comes as AI-linked debt has nearly DOUBLED over this period to an all-time high of $1.4 trillion. Never before has a single theme dominated both US equity and credit markets to this magnitude.

So many of our problems could be fixed by properly funding public education.

1. Employer recovery from post-COVID hiring correction 2. Employer recovery from post-COVID interest rate spike 3. Elasticity = demand boom QED

Here's how this "Bitcoin Mortgage" works. It's not exactly what you might think. Probably more positive for pre-coiners as they learn that Bitcoin is money. But most Bitcoiners may not want it. TLDR: You don't have to sell any Bitcoin. Rather, you're getting a Bitcoin loan from Better Home & Finance with Coinbase custody. More... If you need a 20% down-payment on a $1 mill house, you need $200k in cash and an $800k mortgage. Fannie Mae writes the mortgage (the write most of the U.S.'s mortgages - yes money printing), but only if you meet all of the conventional, conforming loan requirements of Debt-to-income, W2 wages, credit scores, etc., etc. So there's absolutely nothing new in needing to qualify in the fiat space with this program. This doesn't solve the difficulty some Bitcoiners have in qualifying. But the $200k cash down payment comes from an over-collateralized loan (at about 200%) at Better. So at today's $70k Bitcoin price, you'd need to put down 5.714 Bitcoin just for the down payment. 5.714 Bitcoin = $400k political currency units. So that gives you the $200k needed for your down payment at 2-to-1. Your 5.714 Bitcoin remains in custody at Coinbase for the life of the down-payment loan. There's no tax event. You still legally own the Bitcoin (although Coinbase cryptographically owns it). Important to think about. How do you get your Bitcoin back? You have to either sell the house, refinance it (most will do this), or pay off the down-payment loan at Better. The point is... these are really just TWO separate loans. You have a standard mortgage which you must qualify for. Nothing changes here. Zip. And then you have a separate Bitcoin loan that you take out for the down payment at essentially 2 to 1. At least, however, there are no liquidation risks or top-ups required. Once the loan is initiated, your Bitcoin amount remains the same regardless of Bitcoin's price. * There are a lot of options out there, and fortunately more coming online. I've owned a mortgage company for over 15 years now and see this as positive for those who don't own Bitcoin (seeing that it can help get them a house), but not necessarily attractive to actual Bitcoiners just yet.

Jevons paradox is happening in real time. Companies, especially outside of tech, are realizing that they can now afford to take on software projects that they wouldn’t have been able to tackle before because now AI lets them do so. We’re going to start to use software for all new things in the economy because it’s incrementally cheaper to produce. Marketing teams at big companies will have engineers helping to automate workflows. Engineers in life sciences and healthcare will automate research. Small businesses will hire engineers for the first to build better digital experiences. And as long as AI agents still require a human who understands what to prompt, how to review when an agent goes off the rails, how it guide back, how to maintain the system that was built, how to fix the ongoing bugs, and more, we will still have humans managing these agents. This is why all the advice you get of not going into engineering is wrong. The world is going to increasingly be made up of software, and the people that understand it best will be in a strong economic position. This will happen in other roles as well where output goes up and demand increases.