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Cryptovslegacy
7.3K posts
Cryptovslegacy
@cryptovslegacy
Health, love, peace & prosperity. Not selling.
Katılım Nisan 2021
1K Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler
@AustroLibertari @BobMurphyEcon @waitbutwhy Because what most people are ACTUALLY answering is how likely is for other people to press the button vs jumping into blender.
Jumping into blender is absurd, so people intuit nobody will do it.
If the question was changed to 'there are already some people in the blender'...
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The thing is, the phrasing is part of the consideration. With phrasing like this, “blue” would never win so choosing it is automatic suicide, and very few people will end up dying anyway. It’s tougher when you know the phrasing will cause billions of people to choose blue.
Roko 🐉@RokoMijic
We're doing the "Blender" game again There is a large blender. Everyone in the world has to decide whether to step into the blender. If at least 50% of the people do step into the blender, it will be unable to overcome their inertia to get started, and everyone survives. If less than 50% of the people step into the blender, then they all get blended up into paste and die. People who do not step into the blender suffer no adverse effects. Would you step into the blender? (Blue=step into the blender, Red= don't do that)
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@bitcloud Do babies and old ladies with dementia get to enlist to fight as well?
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It's December 1941. Everyone in the world has to make a private decision to be a coward or enlist to fight Hitler. If more than 50% of people enlist, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people enlist, Hitler wins and only cowards survive.
Which button would you press?
tautologer@tautologer
red is only a dominant strategy if you place zero value on other people dying
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@fallenFisherman @rw_eevee @QiaochuYuan Blue pushers will only die if they push blue. Don’t push blue
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@rw_eevee @QiaochuYuan You are doing the same thing, reframing the question in order to distance yourself from the consequences. No matter how you phrase it the fact remains that blue pushers will only die if most people choose not to push blue. Whether this is the "fault" of red or blue is irrelevant.
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i completely missed this discourse the first time so lemme try. i pressed blue without thinking about it, my gut reaction was "blue is prosocial and red is antisocial," on reflection this still seems right to me
galaxy-brain game theory arguments in favor of red are completely missing the point. as others have pointed out, empirically blue wins, and this is a test of theory of mind more than anything else. the actual outcome is determined by what everyone else who is not you actually does, not by what game theory says they should do
a certain kind of nerd thinks game theory is just the "correct" framework for reasoning about this type of situation and that is absolutely not true either and can be questioned on intellectual grounds and not just vibes. among other things game theory assumes every participant is perfectly selfish and perfectly """rational""" (and that this is common knowledge among the participants). this is just totally false as a description of the actual world! multiple parents pointed out that parents have to remember that this test includes their children. and obviously the vast majority of people have never even heard of game theory but they do know what selfishness and selflessness are
funnily enough there's LW stuff around exotic decision theories that's actually relevant here. one of them i would describe roughly as "when you make a decision you are choosing to live in a world where people like you make decisions like that" and i'd rather choose to live in a world where people like me are prosocial
"blue is prosocial and red is antisocial" is also a self-fulfilling prophecy, the more people who believe it the more true it becomes. so believing it is partly a bet on how much other people believe it, partly an act of hyperstition to make it true. few
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@remedy @QiaochuYuan Why do you think the fact that they can be reduced to the same math problem means they're 'the same'?
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@Queueueue_ @LogoSimian Exactly. Don't press that blue button, folks
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@LogoSimian My theory is that pressing a button that you know will cause deaths is psychotic and desperately wicked when there's an option that will ensure no deaths.
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My theory is that holding yourself hostage to encourage other men to needlessly risk their lives is psychotic and desperately wicked even if the majority always chooses it.
That the majority always chooses it would not be a defeater, even if it was true.
rohit@krishnanrohit
The funniest part about this poll is that people keep asking it, the majority keeps choosing blue, and a minority keeps getting upset that they're choosing wrong. At some point maybe you should revise your theory?
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@totoriscreens @chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX Adding non-agentic players to the game immediately makes it uninteresting. Yes I know the original poster added that later. No I don't care, that's not how most people are debating the issue. You already made it clear you are not interested in communication.
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@cryptovslegacy @chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX If you have the belief that not a single child in the entire world will press blue, you're so irrational that I don't even know how we can communicate, like I doubt your ability to even have basic thoughts.
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Best IQ test this site has seen in a while. Most read it as blue being the only way to guarantee everyone's survival, but the simpler solution is for everyone to press red. Although one may press red for selfish reasons, it's also the only true guarantee of survival for anyone.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@Protectorofmice @0zarkian @MateriaMundi Because it introduces unnecessary risk into the game where there was none before. For you and the people you are trying to convince to vote blue.
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@0zarkian @MateriaMundi Then why not just press blue?
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Yelling at people to press red makes zero fucking sense.
You pressed red! You're safe.
Why do you care whether other people die bc they pressed blue?
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@MateriaMundi @0ldSch00l13 This is what blue-pressers incorrectly believe about red-pressers.
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@totoriscreens @chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX The correct equivalent of the game is when there is a burning building without a child inside. So no, I would not run into that building. That's common sense, not fear. Running inside for no reason is retarded, not brave.
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@cryptovslegacy @chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX I mean the nice thing about it is I don't have to "believe"? I can simply observe and categorize. No faith required. Were you afraid to run into the burning building or not.
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@totoriscreens @chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX You really love to believe that about yourself, don't you
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@chud9901 @jiofox @VictrD @revenant_MMXX I mean you've gotten at the heart of question. It's not morality vs logic, it's "will people (in general) choose fear or bravery"
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@DrLewisPearson @zanovar_lim @DerekPederson3 It's survival with zero costs to everybody who wants to live
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@zanovar_lim @DerekPederson3 Survival at all costs is a valid position to hold, but not everyone is wired that way.
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Okay, for real, I like mocking Team Red but it's not as simple as people suggest.
Presumably, almost everyone would vote Red if the requisite threshold were 99% and almost everyone would vote Blue if the requisite threshold were 1%.
will bickford@wbic16
Why red teamers are losing:
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@IntraHikari @DaveScolte @DeepDishEnjoyer Blue deadass puts themselves in a situation of completely unnecessary risk and still finds a way to blame the OTHERS for the consequences lmao. Isn't this whole debate just a great reflection of the times
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@DaveScolte @DeepDishEnjoyer Red has doomed 49.9% of humanity to death to selfishly guarantee they live. Red voters would have billions of lives worth of blood on their hands
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here's the last thing i'll say about the red/blue button debate. we now know that when polling ended, blue ended up winning.
knowing this, isn't one going around trying to convince people to vote red unethical? absent of this proselytizing, people believe in a high trust society
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@brony_veikkoni @cezarybaginski This is the fundamental delusion of the blue pressers. This is how they love to see themselves vs others. For ego reasons. The real self interest.
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@cezarybaginski Aren't you voting red?
I'm talking about you: you are completely self-interested.
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A better solution:
The majority of the population vow to vote red.
Now, those who'd pick blue are forced to pick red, because it becomes the ONLY option where ALL lives can be saved.
Robert P. Murphy@BobMurphyEcon
Another element to this: it is extremely unlikely (I’m tempted to say 1 in 8 billion but it depends how you frame it) that your blue vote actually saves lives. Another reason we should all reasonably go Red.
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@ImNotOwned @shaggysurvives Now do a poll on people and ask them if they would have participated in the destruction of Gaza.
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@shaggysurvives There is a pro social bias in polling for sure, but a Twitter poll is also self selecting and this one’s audience is definitely more “red push” heavy. David Shor’s polling firm asked this and blue won 3:1 among Americans
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@ClockWorkChrono @Shooooooobie @CapitalCrashout @minordissent The thing is that if this is true about the blue button, why would anybody press it, and why would you risk your life 'saving' people who pressed it?
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@Shooooooobie @CapitalCrashout @minordissent 100 percent of humanity has never agreed on anything. Not even facts. So it's either you press everyone lives or increase the chances that mases of people die. Only two options.
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Just FYI blue votes think the question is “would you put your life at risk to save the lives of others?”. They genuinely lack the intellectual capacity to comprehend what it’s actually asking.
David Shor@davidshor
We asked this to a large sample of nationally representative Americans - blue wins by a 3:1 margin!
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@christoaivalis @BooneW @CloudKenshiro @waitbutwhy I think you're just mad the red-pressers aren't just selfish people who only think about themselves like you wanted them to be
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@BooneW @CloudKenshiro @waitbutwhy I think you're just mad you wanted to press the red button without considering the 700,000,000 people under the age of 5
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Suddenly standing alone in the room, I begin by imagining humanity banding together and blue winning in a landslide, and I feel a rush of pride. Red is the genocide button. Blue is the “save humanity from this nightmare” button. I know what kind of person I am.
As my hand hovers over the blue button, I can’t help but imagine a gun pointing at my head with a bullet in one of the chambers. I feel a surge of fear shoot through my body.
Then I think about all the other people staring at the blue button and thinking the same thing. Surely some of those who initially decided to press blue will succumb to the fear. It starts to feel like a gun with two loaded chambers. A stronger pulse of terror.
The more I think about it, the more I worry about other people thinking about it. My heart races.
Then I look at the red button—a gun with no bullets in it. A glorious feeling of relief washes over me. Will I hate myself forever if blue wins because enough others were better and braver than me? But don’t I owe it to my family to protect myself? One vote won’t change anything anyway, right? It’s all irrelevant because the mammal I live in has already made up its mind.
I wince and press red.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@ExistentialLab @Waldbalex @Joker13csc @Mayzomatic Bc in that situation the blues would be in such an overwhelming majority (and rightfully so) it wouldn't even matter what you pressed. So there is no real risk in pressing blue.
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@cryptovslegacy @Waldbalex @Joker13csc @Mayzomatic Why so? Its do you try to save the children or only look you for yourself.
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I was initially a red button guy. Seems like the obvious, more intelligent choice. Everyone in control of their own lives. No one needs to die, just press red
However there have been so many people arguing blue that it in turn makes them correct. Way too many people are going to push blue regardless so therefore blue becomes the correct answer
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@AJamesMcCarthy @waitbutwhy It would definitely affect choices, but not the morality of the question
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@waitbutwhy What if after this was over, the color you chose was tattooed on your body in a visible way
I wonder how that would affect people’s choices, knowing their vote wasn’t private.
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@ExistentialLab @Waldbalex @Joker13csc @Mayzomatic Fair enough, but that makes the entire premise immediately uninteresting
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@Pinto_Pony87 @bigwetbeans @GarrettPetersen You've introduced non-agentic players to the game. That changes the game fundamentally
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@bigwetbeans @GarrettPetersen That's not an accurate depiction of the question and you know it. You're placed in a room with 99 other random people. Children, elderly, maybe your grandmother with Alzheimers. Some of the people already have a gun to their head, but you don't know who. Do you pick up the gun?
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There is a black button. Everyone in the world gets a chance to press the button or walk away. If at least half of people decide to press the button, nothing happens. If fewer than half of people press the button, everyone who pressed it dies.
Do you press the black button?
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