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Like Spotify wrapped for Daily Sketch readers, this week, we revisit key trends from the past year across technology, the consumer, the economy, sustainability, and financials.
open.substack.com/pub/robeco/p/s…
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Daniel Ernst
13.2K posts
Daniel Ernst
@danielernstTMT
Investor | Trend Seeker | Separating Signal from Noise | Robeco
Rotterdam, The Netherlands Katılım Mayıs 2009
2.4K Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
@Srasgon Oh its not just him. I think im going to build an agent to insert carriage return randomly in sell side notes so I can read them
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I always wonder why Harlan is allergic to paragraphs
David Tayar@davidtayar5
JPM’s latest note on Nvidia 👇🏻 PT: $265 $NVDA
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Daniel Ernst retweetledi
I think the extreme talk about jobs is something we've seen before. This 1995 book extrapolated the 1980s outsourcing wave PLUS the lack of service sector improvements in productivity to essentially say we'd all be unemployed.
The mistake was zero sum extrapolation.
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@stevesi Oh man, I remember well standing in the back of the room at the CES announcement of Windows on ARM/Nvidia Tegra and my jaw dropped. A few other investors I knew were nearby and we all looked at each other. I was then so excited for that first Surface...
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I’d love to profile / interview Lisa Su
There’s way too little out there about her given her incredible track record and importance
Can anyone connect me to her or her team?
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@mario_cibelli And there is more! deposit your paycheck directly to them and skip the banks, finance your home, home school your kids - no college tuition, no need for insurance, or medical advice, everything in a single chatbot!
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No need to ever use Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, FanDuel, Booking etc. Always use super apps or app of apps agents that seek the lowest priced provider of said service. These entities are the ones that will really control consumer demand flows.
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@firstadopter Hahaha- but that blogger did greatly expand their reach!
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STOP THE PRESSES. TAE KIM COMMENDS FINANCIAL MEDIA FOR THEIR SPOT ON, SOBER COVERAGE.
"I want to commend the media today, which surprisingly covered the story with appropriate skepticism and a grain of salt, not overhyping Citrini’s AI doomsday scenario. Shout out to The Financial Times"
tae kim@firstadopter
My latest: Citrini Selloff and Why OpenAI, Anthropic SHOULD Lose Money to Be Successful. open.substack.com/pub/taekim/p/c…
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For a tech geek, I am rarely an early adopter, but for the new @firstadopter Substack - I am! taekim.substack.com
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@dee_bosa Probably not the first place. That software exists already, its not a technology issue, its process. Digital is all well and good until the Chief Customs Officer, boards and asks to inspect the manifest in paper
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Freight forwarding is an industry that still largely runs on faxes, phone calls, PDFs emailed back and forth...
ie. it hasn't fundamentally changed in decades. It may not be obvious but its the kind of thing AI eats first (tons of coordination, low digitization, high friction)
Tomasz Karwatka@tomik99
Still looking for a real example of complex, mission-critical enterprise software built with AI? Here you go. In 6 weeks, a working Freight Management System for air & ocean forwarders built on @OpenMercato . – Built in weeks, not years – ~7% of traditional cost – AI agents at the core – Zero license fees – Zero vendor lock-in This is what AI-assisted enterprise building looks like.
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Daniel Ernst retweetledi
I'm not sure that Claude realizes he is in a symbiotic relationship with the rest of the world. No one can pay for his services if they are out of business.
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@FT can you please just start by fixing the bugs in Teams ? That would be a improvement benefiting the entire humankind.
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CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants, lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months ft.trib.al/SZ4Lti1
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@firstadopter But this inside a system of record aka Bloomberg does already work very well - NLP function commands
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@Srasgon Call me claude can walk the dog and pick up my suit from the dry cleaner
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Daniel Ernst retweetledi
Just like DeepSeek last year, Tuesday's market meltdown appears to have been sparked by a RIDICULOUSLY false and misleading narrative that media outlets spread without applying ANY critical thinking, fueling sensationalism and panic.
Great job everyone. You guys are terrible and awful. Have some decency for your readers.
Read the first screenshot, then what I wrote today:
tae kim@firstadopter
Strawman say wat
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@modestproposal1 In their "above trend" trend capex analysis, which they logically tie to AI, are they distinguishing between physical infrastructure and compute? That is likely where the disconnect sits.
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Empirical cites a Fed paper that creates 3 scenarios for datacenter builds. They compared bottoms up forecast of Hyperscaler capex and semiconductor revenues to the 3 scenarios. Hyperscaler capex tracks to the slowdown scenario, semiconductor revenue to the acceleration scenario.
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@Srasgon Maybe, but Claude wont get on a plane to discuss chips over frietjes met bieren…or will he?
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Claude coming for the sell side analyst jobs now
taobanker@taobanker
oh my fucking god. After failing a few iterations of calculating P&L, claude quietly decides that he's just going to make a hard-coded plug adjustment for the future. he confidently declares this as a "solution" that he hopes to sneak by me.
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@firstadopter @OpenAI She even understates the growth in compute - as the FLOPs per watt grew ~1.6x
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New numbers and comments from @OpenAI CFO:
"Compute is the scarcest resource in AI."
"Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs."
"Compute grew 3X year over year or 9.5X from 2023 to 2025: 0.2 GW in 2023, 0.6 GW in 2024, and ~1.9 GW in 2025. While revenue followed the same curve growing 3X year over year, or 10X from 2023 to 2025: $2B ARR in 2023, $6B in 2024, and $20B+ in 2025."
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@Srasgon @bubbleboi I just reread the entire original thread again, and loved every minute and wasn’t at all sure why you had just referenced it.
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@bubbleboi You’re missing the point…
Stacy Rasgon@Srasgon
So I’ve seen this tweet & thread going around, and debated whether or not to weigh in on this (as I am of course biased). But I think it’s worth a discussion, as the nature & purpose of the sell-side job is frequently misunderstood, by retail investors and (it seems) CEOs alike
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Stacy at Bernstein is a terrible analyst. He has been bearish on Intel this whole time. He’s not the only one, but I point him out specifically as he was the most vocal.
As the saying goes, if you want to make uncommon profits, you have to do uncommon things.
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