Will McClain

@Bitcoin_Teddy Scarcity without utility is stupidity, I think this covers it.

@Mr_Derivatives It's not the largest company in the world. Your statement is the exact problem.

$NVDA $194’s handle… What’s going on with the largest company in the world?! Anyone with a hypothesis?

@BenBrey @coachbrucepearl he looks like your dad.

Good to catch up with my old college bball coach BP this morning in LA. Bruce is a legend! @coachbrucepearl

@patrick_oshag @ptj_official What decade was he last right? I'm really asking. The last 5 or so of his major calls when he gets out in media have not been great. His words moved market because of the reputation but didn't pan out. Honest question please correct me if I'm in error.

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

@howtoshort @hkuppy Would love to but can not.

@dothemath11 @hkuppy Do you mind to share a few good names? To me it’s hard to find enough undervalued stocks.

In a meme market, fundamental analysis becomes a liability…

@hendry_hugh If exiled to an island and could only take one band with me this would be it. Down in the tube station.

𝚝𝚘𝚙 𝚋𝚊𝚗𝚐𝚎𝚛🎶 youtu.be/AE1ct5yEuVY?si…

𝚐𝚘𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚞𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚛𝚐𝚛𝚘𝚞𝚗𝚍 🏴‍☠️

@TradeVolatility @hendry_hugh OMG swing your purse at him Marry, ever been to St B? Impossible to drive over 40, the walls on the side of the road teach their own lessons. All the things in the world and this is what winds you up?

@hendry_hugh If you're going to drive like an a-hole, at least own it. It's not cool and it's not edgy.

𝚘𝚖𝚐, 𝚏𝚛𝚒𝚍𝚊𝚢 𝚜𝚎𝚎𝚖𝚜 𝚝𝚘 𝚋𝚎 𝚜𝚞𝚙𝚎𝚛 𝚌𝚞𝚗𝚝 𝚍𝚊𝚢. 𝚐𝚞𝚢𝚜, 𝚏𝚞𝚌𝚔𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚌𝚑𝚒𝚕𝚕…

@MacroMicroNMike @Chooosas @gnoble79 Mike, Finance is about valuing the idea more than determining "Is it a good idea". No one comes to my office to pitch our fund to invest in a "Bad idea" In that light I'm valuing your comment and extrapolating Val: You have a 10 cent head. Now to the bar to cont with the humor

@Chooosas @gnoble79 FSD is already a better driver than you. My experience includes 4 HW4 vehicles. All drive better than you in any type of weather conditions.

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@gnoble79 Dan Ives is the Flavor Fav of finance, just the hype man with colorful clothes. He should hang a big clock around his neck so we could all celebrate the two times a day he is right.

86% of Tesla revenues are from autos and related services. Some might irresponsibly suggest that $TSLA is an auto company! Could you imagine? Call it whatever you want; the market cap is indefensible even if one ascribes generous valuations to their other business. That is a FACT. Kindly show your valuation framework if you disagree. Ad hominem attacks are no substitute for fundamental analysis. Tesla is wildly overvalued. The share price is sustained only by narratives and dreams. Tesla does not have the necessary Texas state approval for paid unsupervised robotaxi rides post May 28. It will be years before they are able to develop the necessary technology, by which time it is likely that such technology will be commoditized and widely available. The stock is unchanged over the last four years and has massively underperformed the market. Investors increasingly ain’t buying the hopium that @elonmusk is selling. Fair value is maybe $50. $TSLA is the biggest bubble at scale in stock market history. The coming crash will be epic. I am short from $475. @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @StanphylCap @TeslaBoomerMama @GerberKawasaki @RealJimChanos

@JonathanTurley Since the death nail seems to be the fuel spike from a the war, controlled by the US- maybe a low cost loan and allow them to operate through the crisis? I'm a little tired of the fireman causing the fire then claiming no responsibility. USG should exit all equity positions.

The suggestion that the government should buy out and own 90 percent of Spirit Airlines reminds me of something Milton Friedman said: "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand."

@gnoble79 Every engineer that I have spoken with that has left Tesla tells me they can't get it to work without revamping the methodology. Not likely that the capital cost could be justified. They might be able to buy the IP from one of the defunct projects or partner. Either blows the P/L

The wheels are coming off the robotaxi fraud. The $TSLA technology is unable to achieve the required level 4 FSD with just cameras. Back to the drawing board. $50 is fair value.

@StockSavvyShay @cvpayne I can't do everyone's homework anymore, maybe AI can self analyze. Let's see if it produces ghost.

@StockSavvyShay @cvpayne Tangential thinking. Project out the number to meet the multiple. Now plug it back into global economy. Now draw a scenario on "what didn't get funded" with the capital absorbed into this area. Does it give a plausible view of a non crashed real economy? Even within an order mag?

My next guest says $NVDA should be $22,000,000,000,000 market cap. Making Money

@cvpayne Why not 100T? It's as if all the rules of large numbers, finance and history don't exist. How's the crypto push working out for ya?

@aaronjmars "Heating the Tape" as opposed to painting the tape. In an odd way could this open eyes to the artificial inflated prices in crypto world that came from data manipulation?

holy fuck, a hair dryer at a Paris airport broke Polymarket weather markets & made someone $34,000 richer - polymarket was settling Paris temperature bets on a single Météo France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle runway perimeter - basically unguarded - the guy bought the long-shot outcome (like "22°C" when everyone expected 18°C) for pennies, since nobody thought it'd hit - then he walked up to the probe and briefly heated the air around it with a portable heat source, spiking the reading just long enough to register as the daily max - temperature snapped back to normal in minutes, the market resolved in his favor, and he cashed out - twice, on April 6 and April 15, before Météo France caught on and filed charges hyperstitions.

@zerohedge Thoughtful, innovative, total class and always a gentleman. He had a great influence on me when I was a young PM. Peace to his friends and family.

*MARK MOBIUS, EMERGING MARKETS INVESTING PIONEER, DIES AT 89

Can I get some talented fan to provide a cartoon or other image that captures this species? Again, remember that academics are a separate species: Homo Invertebraticus Castraticus. Go!

@rcwhalen @FT @janetyellenn Affectionately we simply call her The Muppet.

@FT This from the co-author of QE? Really @janetyellenn

Speaking at a conference in Hong Kong, the former Federal Reserve chair sounded the alarm on monetary policy independence, saying that she has ‘never seen a threat of this level to the Fed before’. ft.trib.al/GFS3ai4

@FinanceLancelot @GetJollyInc @richimedhurst out of your mind. Blocked good bye.

@GetJollyInc @richimedhurst How come it took the IDF 8 hours to respond? Why were all of the IDF pulled away from the border hours beforehand?

Israel's Oct 7 false flag from Gaza was just an excuse to move in and capture the largest natural gas deposits in the region. Lebanon also has mass deposits making Israel monstrously rich. All wars are banker wars. @richimedhurst

@hendry_hugh I appreciate the anti establishment lean. I've been this way forever, but Michigan survey? It has been a irrelevant political tool for some time. It is more of TDS measure than of real economic import. Not sure I'd hang my hat on that anomaly. Other than that I mostly agree.

𝚎𝚍𝚎𝚗 𝚛𝚘𝚌𝚔. 𝚜𝚞𝚗 𝚍𝚛𝚘𝚙𝚙𝚒𝚗𝚐. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚑𝚘𝚞𝚛 𝚋𝚎𝚝𝚠𝚎𝚎𝚗 𝚠𝚘𝚕𝚏 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚍𝚘𝚐. 𝚗𝚘𝚝𝚑𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚌𝚕𝚎𝚊𝚛. 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝’𝚜 𝚠𝚑𝚎𝚛𝚎 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚍𝚐𝚎 𝚕𝚒𝚟𝚎𝚜.