Jason X retweetledi
@maneco1964 Someone really wants out of US Bonds, and someone is instantly buying them.... I wonder who would have the incentive to instantly buy up a selloff.
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Jason X
271 posts
Jason X
@howtoshort
Malaysian Chinese, cs PhD. Stupidity comes from arrogance
California, USA Katılım Aralık 2011
36 Takip Edilen49 Takipçiler
Kevin Warsh has said he wants the Fed to adopt a new approach to measuring inflation, per YF
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@dothemath11 @hkuppy Do you mind to share a few good names? To me it’s hard to find enough undervalued stocks.
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@hkuppy Kuppy,
I also started running our little shop in 27 years ago, 1999. Value bent 47.6% unlevered last year. Our best year since...1999.
It's there just have to look harder. We owned no mag 7. As fewer people do fundie it seems easier to me...
Enjoyed u on Ben and Squirrel
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@TimDuy @sidprabhu At this price level the median voters need a deflation.
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I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at best a 2% floor but comfortable with 3%.
Jordan Weissmann@JHWeissmann
I think @econJaredB basically got the dynamics of what's going on here right: It's not that the economy is so bad (in most places, it's not). It's that Trump promised something, then did the opposite in a way that even low-information voters understand.
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GDP is fake
Electrical generation
🇺🇸3.3k TWh to 4.4 TWh
🇨🇳.5k TWh to 10k TWh
Vehicle Production:
🇺🇸 10m to 10m
🇨🇳 .5m to 30m
E-commerce: (2025)
🇺🇸 25 billion deliveries
🇨🇳 216 billion deliveries
Steel:
🇺🇸 95m tons to 85m tons
🇨🇳 1.2 billion tons in 2025
Ag Grain :
🇺🇸 8% of world production
🇨🇳 25% of world production
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@Analyst_G Nah the market is driven by narratives and attentions. At this point Iran successfully lost the market’s attention. They lost that one chance.
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@Macropulse98 @zerohedge And the fed can print to buyback treasury to suppress the long term.
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@zerohedge Doesn't mean anything if the bond market disagrees with him.
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@AllVentured And the mines are just an excuse not to open the Strait, which is their main leverage.
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Timeline: even if a deal is made this weekend you are looking at at least a few weeks to de-mine the strait. And that is if everything goes perfectly.
HFI Research@HFI_Research
Oh wtf.
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@AllVentured I don’t see how the US would agree to the 10 points.
Even if they pretended to, the Iranians wouldn’t trust them and open the Strait.
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@howtoshort @rev_cap Why was China starting to buy our oil then
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@MichaelJBurry__ Dude was screaming crash, then turned bullish after a 6% pullback.
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@LogicalThesis If you have long term holdings with 3x profit it doesn’t make sense to sell due to tax reasons. Hedging is better.
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If war continues I see 5% on 10Y bonds this summer. Measured move is 5.5%+. Leave long dated treasuries to mother in law. We have energy crisis, then fiscal crisis while we are still running 6% deficit at peak economic cycle with secularly low unemployment rate. $TNX $TMV $PFIX
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G
Unpopular opinion: despite 10Y rate $TNX dipping sub 4% on Friday, I think it’s heading above 5% by October
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This is going to be a huge problem for the bond market in a few generations
Visegrád 24@visegrad24
A Danish sperm bank has decided to start IQ tests of donors and banning people with an IQ below 85
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Energy/oil – short-term thoughts. 👇
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH
@darkjeweler There will be a shakeout after / if the Iran news is resolved. In that case, we'll see a pullback in energy, and I'll be reloading. If it's resolved and they don't drop, oh boy, they're heading much higher. That would be another great bullish signal.
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Jason X retweetledi
Most men leak leverage by explaining themselves. Explanations invite negotiation, and negotiation invites control. Speak with restraint, keep details private, let outcomes do the convincing. When did you last lose power because you talked too much?
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@Kacper_PK_CH Seems it’s a good idea to buy some Swiss stocks with CHF margin.
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Key Central Bank Rates – Jan 2026
🇺🇸 FED: 3.75% $USD (next: Jan 28)
🇪🇺 ECB: 2.15% $EUR (next: Feb 5)
🇬🇧 BOE: 3.75% $GBP (next: Feb 5)
🇨🇭 SNB: 0.00% $CHF
🇦🇺 RBA: 3.60% $AUD
🇨🇦 BOC: 2.25% $CAD
🇳🇿 RBNZ: 2.25% $NZD
🇯🇵 BOJ: 0.75% $JPY
🇷🇺 CBR: 16.00% $RUB
🇮🇳 RBI: 5.25% $INR
🇨🇳 PBOC: 3.00% $CNY
🇧🇷 BCB: 15.00% $BRL
Major developed markets pausing/holding, EM still elevated. Via investing.com
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