Ethan Ard

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Ethan Ard

Ethan Ard

@ethanard

Full of passionate intensity

Columbus, OH Katılım Haziran 2007
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
Since you seem to be asking a sincere question, I'll give a sincere answer. Part of it, to be sure, is partisan preference ("rage", as you put it). Democratic voters, compared to Republican voters, tend to have a significantly more favorable view of, say, government funding of medical research, or government funding of medical aid to impoverished communities in Africa. Though I'd say voters "in the middle" tend to have somewhat conservative views on that, which is why these are good soft targets. But the deeper concern that many Democrats have is that something much bigger is going on. In 1932, FDR made enormous changes to the nature of American society. He instituted social security over the strenuous objections of republicans, who feared (correctly) that it would be very difficult to unwind. Some of his techniques (e.g., threats to pack the court) were very rough justice, but it must be noted that he had the support of 71% of congress (and by definition, the vast majority of voters), as opposed to 51%. These were hardball threats *within* the bounds of our constitutional system. The Democratic concern is not so much that he will do things that we don't like--of course he will. Elections have consequences. It's not even a concern that he will do things which are broadly popular and thus hard to unwind (like social security, medicare or Obamacare), or that he will do such a good job that Vance is elected just as GHWB followed Reagan. If that happens, so be it. The major concern is that there will not be any more elections, that the current government will do unpopular things, but simply refuse to leave because they have unfettered control of the military and intelligence operations. I for one am not persuaded that Trump will leave voluntarily in 4 years, nor do I think he will leave involuntarily. There is a very real chance that Trump will be "president" for the rest of his life, and perhaps then Barron (or Elon) will be president for the remainder of *my* life. Trump has several uncommon insights about the nature of power, the most important of which is: if you achieve a certain level of power, you do not have to relinquish it. He has stated that he never should have left in 2020. Putin had term limits, until he abolished them. Xi had term limits, until he abolished them. Mao was removed from power by the party, but he refused to leave. Erdogan is going nowhere. Orban is going nowhere. Kim Jong-un is going nowhere, nor did his father or grandfather. Hitler was elected to a limited role by a minority of the population, but quickly overthrew the remaining parts of the government, installing himself as Fuhrer with unlimited powers. Caesar was just a man, who was forbidden by law to cross the Rubicon, until he did it because LOL, and thus ended the Roman Republic. Caesar did not live forever, but the Republic was dead forever. Every other American president has felt compelled to follow the law, although I acknowledge that FDR and Lincoln pushed things pretty far. Trump is, after all, a convicted felon who scorned the notion that any court of law could tell him what to do. I understand that many Republicans agreed with his decision to defy the courts, but that only makes democrats more concerned, not less. Of course I do not expect to persuade any Republicans about this--I presume that most Trump voters either think this is alarmist TDS, or else relish the prospect. Bringing it back to the immediate matter at hand, there are ways to reduce spending which are consistent with the U.S. constitution. Under our constitutional system, only Congress is able to set spending priorities, and only congress is allowed to create or abolish agencies like the CFPB, the USAID, or the Department of Education. The president's only role is to sign or veto the bills, and then ensure that the laws are faithfully executed. It would be perfectly legal for Congress to pass laws accomplishing what Musk and Trump intend to do, and in fact Trump has such unfettered control over his party that he could easily strong-arm them into doing so. Mike Johnson only has a 3-vote majority in the house, but who would dare vote against Trump on anything right now? Which raises the question: why aren't they taking that route? Why haven't they passed the DOGE authorization act, or even contemplated such? One possible interpretation is that the lawlessness is the point. If you are able to unilaterally usurp congressional authority over an unpopular program like USAID, you may be able to unilaterally detain U.S. citizens and place them into camps, or cancel elections due to a "national emergency", or throw out ballots you don't like, etc. Don't get me started on invading Greenland, or Gaza, or Panama, or Canada. Canada! Not only our closest ally, but possibly the closest ally any nation has ever had in human history. This is already way too long, but I would also add that Musk and AI raise the stakes quite a bit. While this is not yet consensus, there is zero doubt in my mind that AI is the most powerful thing that humanity has ever invented. The fact that Trump's strongest ally (and arguably, the shadow president) is also in the running to control AI (inasmuch as it can be controlled, which I doubt), is pretty concerning. China became a technological police state with 2000-era technology. It would be incredibly easy to have total 1984-style surveillance of the entire U.S. population with a few hundred billion dollars worth of investment in the right AI tools even using today's technology, let alone the 2027 technology. I fear that we are all frogs with a scorpion on our back, in water that is rapidly coming to a boil. I hope this helps to address your sincere question. And needless to say, I hope I'm wrong about all of this.
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Alex Lieberman
Alex Lieberman@businessbarista·
Who remembers Scholastic book fairs? They ruled. If I hosted one for adults in NYC, who would come?
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@paulg Ironically, garages are probably the least air-conditioned part of the typical American house.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@CliffordAsness @ptuomov And it wasn't her call, it was a judicial matter resolved in the courts. Senators (like hedge fund billionaires) sometimes express opinions about matters about which they do not get a vote, but wish they did.
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Clifford Asness
Clifford Asness@CliffordAsness·
@ptuomov Yep, plus, none of this should be Elizabeth Warren’s call.
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Ptuomov
Ptuomov@ptuomov·
1. It’s not true that the combined entity would be in worse shape with Spirit than stand-alone JetBlue is today. Scale is important and allows for significant cost cuts. 2. Even if the combined entity would be in a worse shape, it would be large and long-term viable enough that it could likely simply be refinanced or restructured outside any bankruptcy process. 3. There is a difference between cheaper 11 and chapter 7 bankruptcy. Even if I were wrong about both 1 and 2, the combined entity would still highly likely enter a ch11 reorganization and not in ch7 liquidation.
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki

If JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit had been approved, there's a good chance JetBlue would now be headed into bankruptcy, too.

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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@JamesSurowiecki @BWLH_ Isn't that just society's short-lived response to George Floyd & COVID? "Rules don't apply to the rich and powerful, so they don't apply to me either".
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James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki·
@BWLH_ But that doesn't explain the spike in murders in 2020-2021, followed by the precipitous fall.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@ThinkAppraiser Because it's easier to just stiff your kid's school and get even richer in the long run.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@EWErickson Are you of the opinion that WNBA players have legions of accountants and advising them on tax policy?
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Erick Erickson
Erick Erickson@EWErickson·
One of the side benefits of this hell site is you get to see people who think of themselves as experts reveal they don't really know what they are talking about, but presume themselves smarter than the legion of accountants and lawyers who help athletes navigate their finances.
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki

I cannot believe this. Kelsey Plum really thinks that if she earned a dollar more (giving her a million-dollar salary), she would have to pay an extra $13,000 in income tax. That is not how marginal tax rates work! If she earned a dollar more, she'd pay an extra 13 cents.

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Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan@moseskagan·
When he was getting started in his career, many closeted gay men in politics hid by being overtly homophobic, and thereby did a lot of damage to gay people. I've always admired BF for being moral and courageous enough to avoid doing that, even though it would probably have made public life much easier for him.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@Noahpinion When they discontinued the large (33 oz) glass bottles of sparkling Italian mineral water, I took that personally.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@deanwball Do you feel that Biden was “worse on rule of law” than the first Trump administration?
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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. Ball@deanwball·
You always see your own side doing the corrosive things less than the other guys. But the really pernicious thing is that each successive presidential admin is worse on rule of law/injecting politics into absolutely fucking everything than the last. If you imagined yourself being pulled into a spiral or a vortex, that’s precisely what it would be like, right? “Oh look! I’m even deeper into the vortex now! It’s even more vortex-y!” And Kelsey’s response is to say “well, when we were in MY part of the death spiral, it was less death-spiraly than it is now!” Which is fair as far as it goes, but probably the bigger issue is the death spiral itself.
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc

@deanwball I don't really buy the 'both sides' here. I think that this administration engages in reprisals on the basis of personal beefs and internet outrage at a higher rate than past administrations (though of course the vice itself is ancient)

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Mike Solana
Mike Solana@micsolana·
if you're reading this, and you've seen a centrist or liberal denounce the NYT's tacit endorsement of political assassination today, please share their post below. I'd like to know who among them still has some integrity.
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Mike Solana
Mike Solana@micsolana·
the new york times politely discussed the assassination of a businessman with hasan piker, who made the case, in the new york times, for assassination. this is not a small thing. this is an insane, unacceptable thing that every liberal needs to denounce.
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
We started an AI founder twitter group... reply with "I'm in" if you're a founder and want to be added
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@HamrickPaul @bobbyfijan @WallStreetApes You are right I have vastly oversimplified things. And moreover I was wrong about step up basis for billionaires -- the estate tax exemption is only about $15 million. More generally, I have no real idea what sophisticated tax planning strategies he uses.
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Wall Street Apes
Wall Street Apes@WallStreetApes·
This is how Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos avoids paying a personal income tax - For the last 20 years he’s had the same salary, $82,000 - He does this because a higher salary that would support his lifestyle would be subject to payroll and income tax, he doesn’t want to pay that - Instead all his money is in his stocks, those are never subject to any taxes as long as they aren’t sold - He takes out a loan and borrows against his stocks - The only money he’ll ever had to pay is the loan and interest on the loan This is common practice for billionaires so they avoid the majority or all of a personal income tax
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@ramit The Hampton Inn never gives me kumquats & berries. I’ll try writing a letter next time.
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Ramit Sethi
Ramit Sethi@ramit·
Some unconventional ways I travel: DO: - I use an SOP (standard operating procedure) document, which includes my airline/seat preferences, what time I prefer to fly/land, when to economize and when to splurge, and more - I add 50% to any hotel sticker price — that's the real cost. $500/night = $750 after taxes, tips, meals, treatment. If that number is too high, shorten the trip or stay somewhere cheaper - Every ~10 days of travel, we have one completely unscheduled day - I send a pre-arrival letter to hotels. My wife and I don't really drink so we'd prefer berries instead of a welcome gift of wine DON'T: - We don't book many high-end food reservations. It's just not for us - Eat food on plane (even business class). True luxury is bringing your own food and walking off a plane feeling great - We never book a trip and show up to "see the sights." Each trip has a theme, how we want to feel, and we focus the travel around that. We pin items ahead of time, then we can be spontaneous while we're there, knowing we'll see a few magical things we've already set an intention for - Treat trips as "once in a lifetime." We know if we love it, we can come back I have more specific ways I travel (next tweet)
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@tszzl Dwarkesh is great. He has the courage and ability to argue respectfully with people more powerful and expert than he is. He is not afraid to lose a public argument. And he’s so likable, his guests don’t mind. That said, Jensen’s case seemed stronger and more grounded in facts
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roon
roon@tszzl·
the discourse about the dwarkesh jensen interview is ridiculous: the fact that a 25yo podcaster can make the ceo of the largest company in the world dance and answer to the people at all is impressive. the purpose of media is not to respectfully sing praises to the powerful
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@Austen 1. He thinks it is true. 2. He thinks it is moral to tell the truth about this, irrespective of near-term consequences to him. 3. He thinks that soon enough, we will see that he was right all along, enhancing society’s trust in him.
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@acquisizioni @JRMcFadyen I would add a cable machine and remove the hip thrust and hack squat if you need room. And probably make the dumbbell rack bigger to make room for up to 80-100 lb and kettlebells.
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Pat Carino (d/b/a Acquisizioni)
Pat Carino (d/b/a Acquisizioni)@acquisizioni·
Does anyone have any strong opinions about what equipment should be in a fitness center? I don’t really have any strong opinions besides making sure the dumbbells go above 50 pounds so @JRMcFadyen has something to use. Initial layout proposed to me:
Pat Carino (d/b/a Acquisizioni) tweet media
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Robbie Hendricks
Robbie Hendricks@robbiehendricks·
Tides bought this property for $218k/unit. Then Tides defaulted and nuked millions of dollars. Now this group is buying it for $150k/unit. They are now marketing that delta to investors as "day one equity". ...which is fairly disingenous. Brother, if it was worth $218k/unit, it would sell for that.
Robbie Hendricks tweet media
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Ethan Ard
Ethan Ard@ethanard·
@jdlichtman This is interesting in light of the 2010s debates between Ilya and Demis in the great new book "Infinity Machine", by @scmallaby. Ilya contended that to solve hard problems, deep learning was sufficient, with enough scale. Demis felt reinforcement learning was required too.
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Jared Duker Lichtman
Jared Duker Lichtman@jdlichtman·
In my doctorate, I proved the Erdős Primitive Set Conjecture, showing that the primes themselves are maximal among all primitive sets. This problem will always be in my heart: I worked on it for 4 years (even when my mentors recommended against it!) and loved every minute of it. [Primitive sets are a vast generalization of the prime numbers: A set S is called primitive if no number in S divides another.] Now Erdős#1196 is an asymptotic version of Erdős' conjecture, for primitive sets of "large" numbers. It was posed in 1966 by the Hungarian legends Paul Erdős, András Sárközy, and Endre Szemerédi. I'd been working on it for many years, and consulted/badgered many experts about it, including my mentors Carl Pomerance and James Maynard. The the proof produced by GPT5.4 Pro was quite surprising, since it rejected the "gambit" that was implicit in all works on the subject since Erdős' original 1935 paper. The idea to pass from analysis to probability was so natural & tempting from a human-conceptual point of view, that it obscured a technical possibility to retain (efficient, yet counter-intuitve) analytic terminology throughout, by use of the von Mangoldt function \Lambda(n). The closest analogy I would give would be that the main openings in chess were well-studied, but AI discovers a new opening line that had been overlooked based on human aesthetics and convention. In fact, the von Mangoldt function itself is celebrated for it's connection to primes and the Riemann zeta function--but its piecewise definition appears to be odd and unmotivated to students seeing it for the first time. By the same token, in Erdős#1196, the von Mangoldt weights seem odd and unmotivated but turn out to cleverly encode a fundamental identity \sum_{q|n}\Lambda(q) = \log n, which is equivalent to unique factorization of n into primes. This is the exact trick that breaks the analytic issues arising in the "usual opening". Moreover, Terry Tao has long suspected that the applications of probability to number theory are unnecessarily complicated and this "trick" might actually clarify the general theory, which would have a broader impact than solving a single conjecture.
Boaz Barak@boazbaraktcs

This is one of the coolest such examples! See comments from Lichtman below, who proved the related primitive set conjecture arxiv.org/abs/2202.02384

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