Gentile_Capital

@bajadobe does EVERYTHING need to be adobe?

Adobe couch on a dry-stone foundation. I added a ton of extra manure to the plaster to achieve the “crackly” look. Patio is stone with a lime-clay mortar.

@Bitcoin_Teddy its called elite overproduction. there are many very interesting historical examples of it often with terrible outcomes

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Zohran Mandani: “The average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is annoyed their education is not that valuable, and that the person who knows how to drill for oil has a more valuable profession” “I think that annoys the fuck out of these people”

@CollinRugg try that in texas!

NEW: ‘Muslim City’ in Texas gets legal win after a judge ordered that the state must comply with developers. The East Plano Islamic Community (EPIC), which has now been rebranded to The Meadow, will feature 1,000 homes, a mosque, schools, and more. Texas leaders are worried that project leaders will begin imposing Sharia law. Developers were just awarded a win when a Travis County Judge ordered that Texas state agency, Texas Workforce Commission, must comply with the agreed upon terms with the developer. The Texas Workforce Commission had argued that the project was under investigation. “This development remains under active investigation with our federal partners at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). We are taking immediate steps to appeal this decision,” the agency said.

@ParadisLabs so though watching everything run while nynomic sits flat. Hopefully it gets broader discovery soon

$AIXA earnings are out. Some Nynomic / potential $AXTI impacts. Tldr: - At ~0.6× EV/sales and 0.5× book, the re-rating case for Nynomic is much stronger imo - Positive $AXTI tailwinds? More MOCVD tools = more InP wafers consumed = $AXTI upside $AIXA earnings: - Order intake €171M (+30% YoY) - Q1 rev €59M (in line with guidance but down sharply YoY due to volume) - Backlog rose to €359M - FY 2026 guidance left unchanged at the upgraded level. Nynomic impact: - Opto order strength (>65% of intake) is what's important These Q1 orders (& the backlog build) translate directly into LayTec rev rec in H2 2026 / early 2027 w/ near-zero execution risk. Nynomic’s own March guidance was deliberately conservative post-2025 trough. This $AIXA earnings keeps that as a floor + opens upside to the semi segment (historically ~€92M trough) toward €110M+ run-rate at expanding margins. $AIXA Q1 rev weakness is purely volume + one-off. Upgraded FY margins assume opto mix + utilization recovery. No new China softness, SiC drag, or export-control noise is flagged rn, but the call should hopefully confirm that. R.e. $AXTI Might be a stretch but Higher $AIXA tool utilisation = higher InP pull = better pricing and mix for $AXTI (InP already ~40-50% of revenue and highest margin). Gross margin expansion follows volume, exactly as seen in prior optical up-cycles.

@RMXnews these retard socialists somehow think that have a steady flow of low wage migroids into their country is going to help them.

🇨🇭Shock poll in Switzerland🇨🇭 A new poll shows that 52% of Swiss voters say they'll vote "Yes" to the national anti-immigration referendum :"No to a Switzerland of 10 million!" The referendum, launched by the Swiss nationalist right, is designed as a sustainability initiative to cap the Swiss population at 10 million. 46% say they will vote against the initiative. The text wants to enshrine a population limit in the constitution, including potentially halting all forms of immigration if the population grows beyond 9.5 million. The high-stakes vote is set for June 14. Remarkably, more than half of liberal voters say they will vote "Yes." Meanwhile, a quarter of Green voters say they will also back the initiative. The proposed referendum comes at a time when Europe increasingly faces environmental catastrophe, a housing crisis, and huge strains on public resources due to soaring immigration levels. Many European nations are among the most densely populated nations in the world and life in them is only expected to become more crowded in the near future unless dramatic action is taken. Switzerland is no exception. “Our country is cracking in every corner. We are going through the debacles of recent years. If we don’t intervene, we will be overtaken by events,” said Marcel Dettling, the SVP’s campaign manager back in 2022. “Today, there is very strong economic migration,” he said. “Whoever has set foot in Switzerland will never leave the country. Migrants from Africa have welfare rates of 34 percent.”

@MarioNawfal crazy its only 52% and not 90%

🇨🇭 The Swiss want to cap their population! 52% of Swiss voters are now backing a referendum to cap the country’s population at 10 million. If it passes June 14th, they’d become the FIRST nation in history to officially limit how many people can live there. It would likely mean tighter immigration controls, meant to keep Switzerland, well, Swiss. Source: 20 Minuten, Anadolu Agency

@ParadisLabs you still holding this? Its done nothing while all my other holdings are going crazy. I really want to sell. Should have just full ported intel.

Thoughts on Nynomic ($M7U) at €145M MC: Caution: this is a numbers-heavy post where I walk through some of my modelling. No one’s really covered this on X since Nynomic doesn’t disclose subsidiary rev/margins. TLDR: Nynomic is very cheap at current 1.3x multiples vs metrology peers like $ONTO (10.7x) & $CAMT (13.8x). For a v. quick summary of the bull thesis: - Asymmetric exposure to photonics supercycle via their LayTec subsidiary - chokepoint in InP/GaN MOCVD via $AIXA ramp - $AIXA is 80–90% of global MOCVD Onto financials… -> By triangulating data points, I get to ~€15M revenue for LayTec in FY25: LayTec has ~800 installed reactors globally (based on customer list + historical $AIXA shipments + 25 years of sales) - New-reactor ASP: €95k / reactor - New reactors attached/yr (global MOCVD share, $AIXA + part of $VECO): ~100 units - New sensor revenue: 100 × €95k = ~€9.5M/yr - Service/software renewals: ~10–12% of installed base annually at €20–30k each = ~€1.5–3M/yr - Etch endpoint: ~€1–3M/yr -> Looking fwd to 2026: $AIXA Q126 orders were €171M at >65% opto mix. Call it €111M of opto equipment orders in a single quarter. If $AIXA’s FY26 opto revenue runs at ~€350M (conservative 62.5% of the €560M guide), and LayTec attaches at conservative 3–4% of reactor value on new orders: - That implies €10–14M of incremental LayTec revenue over the 2027–2028 recognition window. - So LayTec could reach €22–28M in FY27 layered on top of the ~€15M base I walked through above. Imo, the stock is starting to price in that inflection now. And consequently gives Nynomic a 1.3x EV/Sales multiple. That is very cheap against metrology pure-plays but fair against companies like Jenoptik who deal w/ photonics in Europe also. Imo, Metrology names would be a better/conservative comparison since the Nynomic group is ~80% photonics + ~20% metrology which acts as a drag on the financials. So I ultimately see Nynomic re-rating towards metrology names at least, like $ONTO/ $CAMT who have multiples of 10.7x & 13.8x. Especially if LayTec proves materially higher-growth and higher-margin than the wider Nynomic group. -> I currently hold a position in Nynomic.

@bajadobe dont be surprised if I move in next to you and start building my own. I've been inspired. And priced out of the santa barbara area where I grew up.

@gentile_captial Nearby. High five figures USD

Down this road is a plot of land for $12k USD. Im gonna buy it, build an adobe house on it, and probably sell/rent it to some gringo with discerning taste. This will be my origin story as the only “sustainable” developer in BCS thats bot full of shit.

@jon_barron I think a good Turing test for this would be: generate all the rooms on all the floors, can you stitch them together and does the outside of the house actually make sense after you've stitched the entire inside. Currently Lyra does not come close to doing this.

@gentile_captial yeah loop closure seems hard. But making individual small environments seems doable, you just gotta chain them together.

Gen3D world models seem to work now. I humbly request that someone finally put some guns and swords into one of these systems and host a deathmatch. I will be there and I can bring some gen 3D luminaries, it'll be a blast, just set it up and ping me on discord.

@dlondonwortel well what the fuck happened?

Is it Paris? Is it Vienna? No, it is...MINNEAPOLIS (as envisioned by the Civic Planing Commission of 1917). digitalcollections.hclib.org/digital/collec…

@jdthewlis I've been trying to do something similar to this, but in 3d. I use trellis to generate the exterior of a building, then I voxelize the exterior, and try to get cluade to create a reasonable interior layout also using voxels. Unfortunately it fails.

random thought last night: can an image generator create a whole game level encoded in a PNG?? several hours later: yes it kinda can, pixel noise makes it quite glitchy though

@keenanisalive if the camera conditioned video path you generated did not see around the back of that chair, you're not going to get any splats there.

A bunch of folks have been building machine learning models that turn a photograph into a 3D environment made of Gaussian splats (read: blobs of color floating in space). Cool technology & a very admirable effort. But marketing these as "world models" seems wrong. More accurate would be to say that they are a riff on the broader class of image-conditioned 3D generators, with a somewhat different flavor of condition image and output representation. As far as world modeling, they don't make great predictions about how the natural world looks or behaves. (Even for, say, a chair behind a table.) Again: I love the technology. Super cool creative stuff. I don't love the marketing and hype around it.

@bajadobe but I guess u live in the south part, maybe that's safer

@gentile_captial Baja sur is súper safe. California and other states feels much more sketchy. No AC needed in a properly done adobe house. Thermal mass stores the coolness of the night

My wife is annoyed that I didn’t show the “best part” of our tiny house and that the pics i posted were messy. I present to you the arch closet and tiny library (and a well-made bed).

@bajadobe ya bullshit, tijuana is 10x more dangerous than San Diego

@bubbleboi @Leaf0Q1 @Alex_Intel_ well if he gets into any others before 13F comes out, plz share

@Leaf0Q1 @Alex_Intel_ My friend at Morgan Stanley told me

We doing Leopold numbers w/o the conflicts of interest.

@carletonjtysick @bruce_barrett whoever was in that white car got squished like a bug

@bruce_barrett a bunch of people watched one of their own get buried alive and not one rushed to dig him out. Life is meaningless to them. Even their own. Much less ours. They don't belong here.

These people are on our roads now.

@justalexoki this is the wrong type of jew

oh my god... shalom motherfuckers