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China's shrinking appetite for oil is balancing global crude markets: China's crude oil imports are tracking at ~6.6 million barrels per day so far in May, the lowest since 2016/ This comes as oil inbound shipments fell -20% MoM in April, to 9.37 million barrels per day, the lowest since July 2022. This compares to 11.6 million barrels per day in 2025, when the country was aggressively stockpiling to bolster energy security. China’s crude oil imports are now expected to average 10.9 million barrels per day in 2026, the lowest average for any year since 2022. However, China's oil inventories have declined by only ~20 million barrels over the last several weeks, to ~1.23 billion barrels, still +15% above early 2025 levels. Over the prior 2 years, the country’s stockpiling absorbed much of the world's surplus oil and helped support global prices, but this dynamic has now reversed and is capping any further upside. China is effectively putting a ceiling on oil price gains despite severe supply shortages.

I love how often oil bulls repeat the whole "even if hormuz opened tomorrow, we will have physical shortages" bit guys, markets don't give a shit about 30 days of physical shortages here and there, if they know that supply is coming

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's Truth Social demands as the complete opposite of what's in the draft text, denying Iran agreed to reopen Hormuz without tolls or remove mines, dismantle its nuclear materials and hand over uranium to the US or any third country, or proceed without the "immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran's frozen assets" being the opening requirement, adding Hormuz remains under exclusive Iranian sovereign arrangements and nuclear issues are not and will not be discussed, per Fars. Trump has also just concluded his Situation Room meeting "to make a final determination," on Iran, with an Iranian official saying yesterday Iran "cannot regard Trump's decision as definitively finalized until the financial markets close at the end of this week," with the concern based on this meeting Trump would formally end the deal and restart strikes at the last moment.

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If you're Iran, with every passing day you are finding ways around the blockade. You are rebuilding missiles, launchers, drones, nuclear facilities, and your industrial complex. Oil prices are high and you're selling a lot to China and Trump isn't stopping that one bit. Russia is sending you all kinds of supplies through the Caspian Sea. Your neighbors are all too afraid to attack you. So why are you negotiating?