Ming Mecca 🐍

Sometimes it makes me wonder how I keep from going under.....

@The_Real_Armand @sovereignsats @MorePerfectUS lol. Socialist.

@jaylivermoar @sovereignsats @MorePerfectUS It’s a service dipshit not meant to make a profit

The FedEx fuel surcharge is now 26.5% for most packages, an additional cost that the company has tied to the price of gas.

@sovereignsats @MorePerfectUS And that’s why it’s broke…..

@MorePerfectUS USPS is only 8%.

AKIRA has ye in a chokehold forever

We may never know who introduced Takuya Nakamura to UK Jungle music, after moving from Tokyo to Boston to study Jazz theory - but I, for one, am very grateful.

@quactuary @HoustonChron Most of the reimbursement goes to the surgical implant vendors that have no guardrails on price increases. The provider gets squeezed on both sides.

@quactuary @HoustonChron BCBS implemented new Ai claim surveillance system set to automatically deny claims in order to delay valid dates of service. Y’all have no clue how difficult it is for a hospital to get paid. Payments are running 90-120 day cycles now instead of usual 30-60.

Memorial Hermann is now out of network for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas, affecting Houston patients’ costs and access to care. bit.ly/4trPMtA

@squinny18 @DrDavidKass

@DrDavidKass Two weeks, two weeks, it's always bloody two weeks with this clown. Haven't you guys noticed?

Ed Yardeni: "Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in bullish sentiment, marked the bottom on Monday. Stocks rebounded yesterday and today on news that the US will end the war soon. In his speech tonight, President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States could conclude its involvement in the Iran war within the next two to three weeks."

@gfc4 @SystematicIRE The ones complaining to you were coaxed to walk on the mag 7 limb?

@jaylivermoar @SystematicIRE Isn't pretty much 99% of the population holding passive indexes now?

Not entirely sure how to interpret this, but multiple people I know who do not work in financial services have reached out to me in the past few days concerned about their retirement accounts.

@SystematicIRE @gfc4 There’s multiple stocks down 30-50% and everyone owns them. Look under the hood and see their fear.

@gfc4 Interesting that people are so concerned with a drawdown that is less than 10% for the SP500. I am also sensing greater fear than usual from investors now relative to the magnitude of decline among those in my circle.

A longhorn among the bluebonnets in the Texas Hill Country.

@TedHZhang Markets opened down so your signal maybe noise at this point.

You heard the guy. Pre-market Monday morning gap up with VIX at 30. What could go wrong?

@GFXFTs @dampedspring Thank you.

@dampedspring Thanks for sharing

Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is mostly unchanged since writing the "A Hamburger Today"DSR 11/17/26 (available in comments) The major themes remain in place 1. There is a tremendous overhang of issuance in IPO markets, corporate debt markets, and government deficit funding markets. Share repurchases demand is falling. 2. Asset prices particularly bond steepness and risk premium are inadequate to generate the sort of returns to have commercial banks create money which means all issuance mentioned above will compete with existing private sector assets to create the necessary credit without banks creating money. 3. At the same time as supply of assets is increasing without money creation consumers are NOT seeing wage growth anymore to continue to spend and have maintained consumption at elevated levels by dissaving. That dissaving adds to the supply that those with cash can choose from to buy 4. Spending on AI despite its increasingly optimistic outlook for future impact is no longer being tolerated by investors who are asking when those spending on chips and data centers will generate return from those spending on AI models. Those spending on AI models (real disrupted businesses and real consumers) have yet to cut jobs much Prior to the war that led us to the idea that assets in general had to reprice cheaper (risk premium expansion) that has been playing out lately but seems less to do with the above and more to do with the war but it's likely that under the hood the damage of the above has begun to seep into markets and the economy. Prior to the war the RISK to my thesis was 1. Significant sustained reversal on tariffs which would be pro growth and favor equities over bonds 2. AI both generating ROI AND not hitting jobs much 3. QRA and FED manipulation to depress risk premiums 4. Much more rate cuts done by a Trump controlled fed 5. While I couldn't see how Congress could do fiscal stimulus particularly post scotus tariff revenue hit another debt busting tax cut could make me wrong What's changed since the war. 1. Consumption is further challenged by likely elevated energy prices for the next year AND by negative wealth effect which discourages dissaving 2. Ignoring what CB's will do markets have increased short term rates which is a tightening 3. Central banks have broadly and by bank pivoted from dovish to pause or pause to hike (hawkish pivot) sensibly waiting to see the real slowdown while obviously immediately seeing the inflation spike 4. More issuance and asset selling due to the literal waste of setting money on fire due to war has been piled on the already massive pile of asset overhang 5. Despite all manner of negative growth shocks I saw and now see even more bond yields have risen and risk premiums have expanded which is an almost certain to guarantee a marked real slowdown. 6. The mechanics of a dollar squeeze are clear to most and dollar has bounced and ROW assets are being puked after a massive move BUT the conditions for the dollar have perhaps NEVER been worse and the secular get out trade is once again supported by cheaper risk parity in ROW which if and when hostilities tame will snap back with a vengeance. Given my synthesis, now we look to what's priced in. Risk premiums are medium wider but not wide. Adjacent to risk premium markets like asset vols, correlations, swap spreads and credit spreads are medium wider but NOT wide From a pure synthesis of all these things long term treasuries are still NOT cheap enough to be max levered long in both alpha and beta BUT they are far more interesting than equities. My synthesis above is clearly STILL bearish growth, margins, and equities. The above is bearish all but cash but most bearish equities. It is also extremely bearish USD and by definition somewhat bullish gold.

It doesn’t get talked about enough how hard Frank Lloyd Wright went in Japan

@AmOptimistShow @KLoeffler @JTLonsdale This is starting to fall on deaf ears as I watch the private markets get mugged by the new administration.

.@KLoeffler to @JTLonsdale on the scandal of DEI contracting: The Biden administration "moved it up from a 5% statutory target to 15% of all government contracting. And it went to about 80% no-bid contracts!" Joe Lonsdale: There's a woman named Margarita Howard. Did you hear about this one? She lived in a 14,000 square foot mansion after her company secured hundreds of millions of 8(a) [contracts]... People just got really, really, really rich... no one was even looking for years, and they just kept getting so rich off these things. Kelly Loeffler: And politically, the Biden administration really promoted this. I mean, they moved it up from a 5% statutory target to 15% of all government contracting. That's why the program almost doubled under Biden. And it went to about 80% no-bid contracts. Joe Lonsdale: Just giving to their friends. Kelly Loeffler: Just no bid. Single, sole source. Joe Lonsdale: Just if you are connected in to the Democratic Party friend who's running it... Kelly Loeffler: You will get this contract. Joe Lonsdale: You just get it. Kelly Loeffler:  And it's massive. And there won't be any checks and balances on you, so it'll never be verified. We're doing the first audit of this program in 45 years. It's never been looked at. We've already kicked a thousand people out of the program. Joe Lonsdale: Shouldn't these people be prosecuted? Kelly Loeffler: Well, that's part two...

This Korean monk layers sacred sutras over beats

Preppy 80s was so good. If you like this vibe, you can just wear this. It's not unachievable. The guys aren't even looksmaxxed. They are just wearing great clothes and carrying guns and look so hardcore. Take inspo and cultivate yourself!

🍀🍀🍀🍀

Open Ai selling new floor model to USG @sama

If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian powers were once again dominant over Western powers (1492). Finally, a rapid crash in the dollar's purchasing power coupled with military defeat could well break apart the American union (1776). Few seem to viscerally understand just how dependent America is on money printing. But the end of the petrodollar is the end of Keynesianism as we know it. And if there's a sudden cost-of-living spike on top of pre-existing levels of political polarization, which are already near Civil War levels...we could see the scenarios that Dalio, the Fourth Turning, and Turchin have described.