
Josh Liu
210 posts

Josh Liu
@joshliusg
Investor & Business Builder | Ex-GaorongCapital|Ex-Kuaishou | Ex-Bytedance



@liuhua45511918 主权货币之间的竞争,其实是一个有序的秩序。由美元单极变成中、美、欧三种货币竞争,其实比起之前的单极体系更加稳定,更加利空黄金

New media runs on speed. @pmarca on the OODA loop: "Speed wins." "If you can have a sustainably faster OODA loop processing cycle than the next guy... then if you think about what happens — let's say it takes an hour to figure something out." "It takes the other guy two hours to figure something out. Think about what happens is: you start out on even playing field. You both start your decision making cycles." "You make your decision within an hour. The other guy is still say, is inside his own OODA loop when you make your decision, right?" "He's only halfway through his process, he now has to start his process over, right — because you've changed the landscape. You've changed the parameters of what's going on. So he now has to go back and re-serve and reorient and start over." Observe, orient, decide, action.






Today marks a moment I'll remember for the rest of my life. When we started Manus, few believed that general AI agents could work. We were told it was too early, too ambitious, too hard. But we kept building. Through the doubts, the setbacks, and the countless nights wondering if we were chasing the impossible. We weren't. This isn't just an acquisition. It's validation that the future we've been building toward is real, and it's arriving faster than anyone expected. But this is not the end. The era of AI that doesn't just talk, but acts, creates, and delivers, is only beginning. And now, we get to build it at a scale we never could have imagined. To everyone who believed in us before it was obvious: thank you. The best is yet to come.

Before AI destroys application software there will be a period of uncertainty. And right now the maxi view re AI disruption is not at all embedded in software valuations. Instead there is simply a concern around things like seat-count growth and a relative underperformance vs semis and infra. But here’s where non-maxis can get blown up over the next 18 months: If the *possibility* that AI will change how the enterprise digests information and organizes itself seems increasingly likely CFOs will do something fairly logical… they will start shortening the length of their vendor contracts on renewal. They don’t know yet if Claude will be able to code them an ERP from scratch…. but if it becomes clear that there are unknown unknowns and the bargaining position of legacy software vendors is about to go down not up then it’s logical to buy yourself the optionality by refusing to renew at terms that lock you in for another 3-5 years. This in-turn has obvious impacts on backlog metrics and the market being the sensitive creature that it is will freak out. 🫡



Two Extreme Misconceptions About Using AI/LLMs: The core issue is cognitive bias regarding engineering investment. The first group's problem is excessive optimism and overgeneralization. They might happen to get decent results on a particular case and immediately think they've found a "silver bullet," ignoring that these successes might just be because the task happened to fall within the LLM's capability boundaries, they got lucky with a domain well-covered by the model's training data, or they didn't encounter edge cases and various complex real-world scenarios. They don't realize there's a huge gap between "the demo works" and "production-ready." The second group's problem is premature abandonment and lazy thinking. They treat LLMs like magic wands, expecting perfect results with zero investment. When they discover the need to carefully design prompts, iteratively optimize, and handle various corner cases, they immediately dismiss the tool itself rather than reflect on whether their own investment was insufficient. The systematic engineering work is what transforms LLMs from "promising tools" into "reliable productivity": 1. Prompt Engineering isn't simply writing a few sentences—it requires repeated experimentation and iteration, including structural design of instructions, careful selection of few-shot examples, explicit constraints on output format, and handling instructions for edge cases. Every detail can impact result quality and stability. 2. Cross-file and cross-contract Context Engineering requires careful design of how to handle dependencies between contracts, inheritance relationships, and cross-contract calls—how to effectively feed this context to the LLM, how to chunk it, how to maintain associations, and how to control token budget. 3. Checklist collection needs to be systematically built based on issues encountered in actual use, known vulnerability patterns, and industry best practices. 4. Regression testing must ensure each optimization doesn't break previously working scenarios, requiring establishment and continuous maintenance of test case sets, building extensive benchmarks, validating effectiveness with real, diverse cases to ensure results are stable, reproducible, and broadly applicable—not accidentally successful. This is no different from traditional software development—both require rigorous engineering discipline. The problem is that AI marketing rhetoric and some early success stories have created an illusion that "AI is easy to use," leading many to underestimate the professionalism and investment required to use it well.

Top 5 Crypto Fundraising Rounds last week 👇 @Lighter_xyz – $68M > Ethereum-based ZK Rollup perpetual-futures exchange > @foundersfund, @RibbitCapital & @HaunVentures @AgentLISA_ai - $12M > An AI agent that uses LLM techniques to analyze smart‑contract code > @NGC_Ventures, @Signum_Capital & @LongHashVC @Acurast - $11M > Decentralized compute network powered by smartphones > @CoinList, @TezosFoundation, & @Web3foundation @SeismicSys - $10M > An encrypted blockchain platform that restructures the open-source blockchain stack around secure hardware > @a16zcrypto, @polychaincap & @ambergroup_io @selfxyz - $9M > Protocol for fully private, verifiable identity > @sandeepnailwal, @greenfield_cap, & @sreeramkannan 12 projects collectively raised $136 million last week.


Read it here: merit.systems/blog/x402

we have over 10 different facilitators on x402scan now!




