@Stnhf_mikaelo @kscottz You're one of the few that understand the first-priciples financial reality of building in SF.
Projects don't pencil out.
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John
322 posts
John
@juanzo007
Intellectual sponge on AI, Macro, Geopolitics, US Fiscal Policy, Bitcoin, the current and future outlook of the Global Monetary System.
Chiang Mai, Thailand Katılım Şubat 2009
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@kscottz The only reason someone like me would be against that is that SF in incapable of building at leass than 1M per 500sqf of livable space. We would be SO owned if SF managed to build a ton of housing cheaply
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Asking AI to generate images of San Francisco but replacing all of the condo towers with Vienna style social housing (financed through a 5% wealth tax on top earners) to trigger the YIMBYs.
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@MikeMichae24475 @supermarke I got myself un-screwed by dumping both my rentals - both of which went owner-occupied and were removed from available rental supply.
The math became more and more obvious over the last decade - I have a family's future to consider.
Best move I ever made.
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@supermarke We get that you got yours and screw everyone else
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The sheer amount of breathtaking ignorance and mass casualty violence inflicted constantly on San Francisco— a relatively small and beautiful city that minds its own business—remains baffling, but keep it coming jealous fuckers, we have survived way worse than you.
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@JohnnyBCCB @supermarke Remove all the politics and you are left with one major first-priciples problem - the math for new construction is insanely expensive.
People think the politics is the sole determination if something gets built.
The Math doesn't play politics - but the politics affect the math.
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@supermarke Why won’t you just let people build shit?
Your town is ground zero for the battle over whether the future will involve building and abundance, or perpetual shortage.
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@donniemaha2024 @supermarke Totally spoiled carpetbagger.
They are far better than the s-hole you left to come here.
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@supermarke Sunset and Richmond are an eyesore. A Tsunami would help SF take out the garbage in those districts
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@cayimby $12B in state bonds to pay for it?
Those are serious numbers, that could make a dent.
But what kind of return do you think bondholders would demand from a state that is so far in the red? 10%? 12%?
Other measures provide millions, but those numbers won't move the needle.
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SF just upzoned huge areas for new housing
...then landmarked 75 sites within them, blocking redevelopment on each one, since state law lets historic status do what CEQA reviews used to do to slow projects.
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@ashton_david @cayimby And which capital markets will be lining up to pay for and build "affordable" housing?
Crickets.
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@cayimby Let’s put high rises all through Golden Gate Park and the Marina Green. Make it all affordable low income housing. Housing for all. Forget all the stuff about crime and poop on the streets. Let’s add at least 250k people. I’m sure our SF govt can handle it because they are gOOD!
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@Crypto_Georgist @cayimby How many 2 acre lots where the land is already paid for exist in the city?
Your best bet is the stack-n-pack like the project on Anza street.
And of course it must be in a high price/high demand hood, and 10s of thousands of them. Not in Excelsior of course.
Not a small ask.
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@cayimby It's not that many honestly. As long as more buildings like the Safeway Marina can be built thanks to SB79
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@KenjiCapital Fine if the numbers pencil out and it's actually "affordable".
This wont help the folks that want affordable rentals - of course only in the finest districts - and making the math work on BMR apartments is impossible, which is why you don't see them getting built.
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Cue the angry comments on this bad boy...
New renderings for an 8-story apartment building in SF, thanks to the SF Family Zoning Plan, which allows for denser residential development on narrow parcels.
This is on Anza Street, a block from Geary, over by USF.
📍San Francisco
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@animalcircuits @lst156 Nice work. That's a massive number, like 20% of total supply.
The kicker - owner-occupied units might pencil out, but for those looking for rental prices to come down - apartments simply do not pencil out - no demand to become landlords here.
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@lst156 That’s false. SF has 74k units in the pipeline, which includes mostly units that are still in the entitlement process. There are only 1219 units with issued permits not under construction.
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There is no housing shortage. There are over 70,000 permitted-yet-unbuilt homes in San Francisco that developers refuse to build, despite having the approvals and owning the land.
Christina Farr@chrissyfarr
Spot on. Lack of housing is the root of basically all the problems our generation faces
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@lizziepika @lst156 That's part of the rub - there is no incentive to build apartments given the low cap rates, mostly owner-occupied units get built - and they won't be cheap.
You all got 25% down and can get approved for a loan for the rest?
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@lst156 where will people live if they are not built yet? is rent low enough for you?
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@lst156 There should be 1 million homes being built right now but people like you make that impossible.
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@JeremyELevine Project gets built - it's a unicorn- Albertson's already owns the land- big bottleneck removed. They've built projects like this before.
You want affordable housing - esp apartments, yes?
Apartments don't get built now for a reason, poor ROA, capital markets won't touch it.
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This photo of old San Franciscans fighting a beautiful 22-story housing proposal actually represents something cool and good:
These people have no power at all to block the project. State law preempts their veto. The entire public hearing is a farce
Laura Waxmann@laura_waxee
Hundreds of #SanFrancisco Marina residents turned out this evening for townhall on controversial @Safeway housing plan, which would place what for many is an uncomfortably tall, 22 & 18 story project at the low-slung neighborhood’s waterfront. @sfchronicle
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@evanjconrad I disagree. Do you understand how prohibitively expensive it is to build here?
And do you think investors will build apartments, be "greedy landlords"? Why the hell would they do that with rental cap rates as low as they are?
If building in SF had ROI, more would be doing it.
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when rent is $8k for a one bedroom, please remember that the fault is in the people who, for 50 years, showed up to argue against nearly every unit of housing proposed
these people are no san franciscans
Laura Waxmann@laura_waxee
Hundreds of #SanFrancisco Marina residents turned out this evening for townhall on controversial @Safeway housing plan, which would place what for many is an uncomfortably tall, 22 & 18 story project at the low-slung neighborhood’s waterfront. @sfchronicle
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@Sr_Lazarus Still a unicorn project. Safeway owns the land - major cost savings - and they've partnered with the capital firm before to build similar developments.
This gets built, but existing stock has to be moded and rebuilt into towers, only in prime neighbors.
Scarce land and $.
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@juanzo007 good for you! please build there. when the time comes that there are 4 cranky people at the meeting instead of 400 the work will have been done
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nearly 5 million views for this photo that says so much about #SF.
idk if this is some sort of tipping point, but if it is, it's long overdue. haggling over every single detail of every single project at public hearings has been detrimental to the city. get shovels in dirt now
Laura Waxmann@laura_waxee
Hundreds of #SanFrancisco Marina residents turned out this evening for townhall on controversial @Safeway housing plan, which would place what for many is an uncomfortably tall, 22 & 18 story project at the low-slung neighborhood’s waterfront. @sfchronicle
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@Sr_Lazarus Boomer naming "our district" is provincial, and views aren't protected, rendering the Russian Hill guy mute.
Wish the meeting timing was better so the pro growth crowd was there.
This is gonna get built - Safeway owns the land, they've partnered with devs to build before.
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@juanzo007 here’s a short video report from the meeting. warning: NIMBYs
Elai@elaifresh
@TheStalwart I actually saw the video first and it’s even worse
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@Sr_Lazarus My bad - This data captures all of the units in the numerous mid to high-rise condo units built in Soma during the above period? An average City-wide of around 2500 units? Less than 2024?
Were you there to witness the transformation? It was a residential building bonanza.
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@coryfromphilly Does it seem peculiar that if supply was so tight, and demand so massive, that capital would flow into building more rental units?
Maybe there is little appetite to invest in building apartments in SF. Can you imagine why that might be?
Seems the economics tell the story.
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How do you puts roots down if there are four available 2beds available, as is the case in the Marina?
I hate these real estate people who dont understand economics.
Real Estate Lawyer@SinaiLawFirm
How many people who want this project in the Marina are going to sign a 10-year lease with the building? Here is the thing - I have no love for the people in the picture, nothing in common with them. But they have roots in the city. Those who scream about affordable housing are not staying long term. They are transients.
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@lcwhitlock14 If prop 13 was repealed when I was a landlord, I'd be a forced seller, 2 rental units would have become owner-occupied, decreasing rental supply.
RC Board forced my hand- there are much better investments - 2 Class-A rental units sold owner-occupied.
Best decision I ever made.
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More Yimby hatred towards older residents, Baby Boomers. What these bigots don't seem to realize is that EVERYBODY would be impacted by getting rid of prop 13, including all of the Yimbys who are secretly homeowners, as well as their parents. They're very nasty people.
tax the poor@TaxEveryone
California YIMBYs do genuinely need to find a way to get rid of prop 13, it’s basically statewide rent control and subsidization of boomers by working age people
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@Patterdude People are desperately clamoring for more housing units, yet for some reason they wonder why it is happening at such a glacial pace. These 2 projects are rounding errors.
Isn't because of 400 boomers attending a meeting - SF RE dev is a powder keg few investors want to touch.
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