Karl Scheibner
3.8K posts

Karl Scheibner
@kfscheibner
WannaB World Traveler




She's wearing shirt about "kindness" as she does this. You can't make it up.




Americans deserve robust competition & affordable airfares. USDOT supports DOJ's antitrust lawsuit, & we plan to deny the JetBlue-Spirit request for an exemption on their merger deal. We will continue with our own investigation while supporting DOJ's work. transportation.gov/briefing-room/…

It’s impossible for me to do my job down at the Portland ICE facility, even with security. I was violently mobbed out by Antifa, and a suspect in black bloc threw a rock at my face. I have zero desire to discuss this further, but everyone is tired of it and wondering why a crackdown on Antifa — a terrorist organization— has not yet occurred.










🗳️ PA 2024: GOP’s Growing Advantage with 90% Chance of Victory 🗳️ Our model now gives Trump a 90% chance of winning Pennsylvania, taking into account voter registration gains, early voting dynamics, polling, and changing demographic trends. Here’s the detailed breakdown: 1. Voter Registration Shifts - Republicans Surge: Since 2020, the GOP has significantly narrowed the voter registration gap, with Republicans gaining +327,823 new voters compared to the Democrats’ -327,821 loss since 2020. •2020 Registration Edge: Democrats +685,818 •2024 Registration Edge: Democrats +357,995 This swing represents a significant shift in the GOP’s favor, especially in key suburban and rural counties where Republicans have seen massive gains, such as Carbon (+14.9%) and Schuylkill (+7.1%). 2. Early Voting & Mail-In Ballots - Democrat Decline: One of the key indicators of a weakening Democratic hold in Pennsylvania is the sharp decline in their mail-in and early voting participation compared to 2020. Data shows: •Democratic mail-in ballot requests are down 35% from 2020 levels. •Republicans are holding steady, maintaining their participation in early voting and mail-in ballots, with GOP early vote turnout consistently above expectations in key battleground counties. In 2020, Democrats heavily relied on mail-in voting to secure a lead, but the reduced mail-in request rate this cycle signals a serious Democratic enthusiasm gap. 3. Polling - Trump Slight Edge: The latest RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows Trump leading by +0.1% in Pennsylvania, but when adjusting for voter registration shifts and early voting data, the model suggests a stronger GOP advantage. Here are the numbers: •Trump: 48.2% •Harris: 48.1% Although it’s close on paper, when factoring in new GOP registrations and reduced Democratic enthusiasm, Trump’s chances increase. 4. Key County Shifts - GOP Making Gains: Republicans are seeing massive gains in counties previously considered Democratic strongholds. Notably: •Luzerne County, where Democrats had a registration advantage in 2020, is now leaning GOP. •Erie County, a bellwether region in Pennsylvania, has seen Republicans outpacing Democrats in new voter registrations. Additionally, suburban areas like Bucks County and Chester County have seen Republicans closing the gap significantly. In Chester, the GOP gained +1.4% in voter registration. 5. Demographic Shifts - Trump Gaining Minority Support: Trump is making inroads among Black and Latino voters, two traditionally Democratic voting blocs. Data shows a significant increase in Trump’s support among minority voters in key areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This erosion of the Democratic base in urban areas will be critical in the final outcome, as it leaves fewer opportunities for Democrats to offset the GOP’s rural strength. 6. Enthusiasm Gap - Republicans Fired Up: Republicans are showing higher enthusiasm than Democrats in Pennsylvania, particularly in suburban and rural counties. Early vote turnout shows that Republican voters are more energized, while Democratic turnout, especially in mail-in voting, is lagging. In 2020, enthusiasm played a big role in Democratic success, but in 2024, the GOP is capitalizing on a momentum shift and higher turnout in key regions. Conclusion: The combination of significant voter registration shifts, reduced Democratic mail-in voting, Trump’s rising support among minority voters, and strong Republican enthusiasm gives Trump a 90% chance of winning Pennsylvania. With only 23 days left, Democrats face an uphill battle to regain momentum. #Election2024 #Pennsylvania #VoterRegistration #GOPMomentum #TrumpVsHarris #SwingStates













