Jesse Cohen

@sluglife @ELuttwak How do you figure Europeans are better insulated?

@ELuttwak European consumers are better insulated from this fuel price shock than American. So European countries are, rationally, expecting Trump to fold first. And Trump so far has backed down from a whole series of ultimatums so the idea has merit.

Wolfgang Munchau, the veteran analyst of Germany's political positioning in international affairs has an interesting analysis in the current UNHERD, which comes at a time when European minesweepers should be in the Persian Gulf to reduce the price of oil (the US has v few ..)

@LynAldenContact If you truly cared about the environment you’d only fly private

I live near a tiny, oddly convenient airport that only had Spirit flights. With Spirit winding down today, those routes are gone. Have to always go to the larger, farther airports now. Rough day for all the workers at that airport, too.

@LukeGromen @ektrit @delfoo Seems like quite the coin toss

@max_entropic @ektrit @delfoo Because US will break economically and politically before China in their view

Everyone wants the Iran War stopped and Hormuz opened. The only player which wants war to continue and Hormuz closed is CENTCOM. ektrit.substack.com

@LukeGromen @ektrit @delfoo So why does China want Hormuz closed? Aren’t they inverse Russia (stockpiles not withstanding)?

@ektrit @delfoo Nah Because as we are saying in Hormuz and saw last yr in Red Sea w US, spending does not necessarily equal effectiveness in drone and missile warfare

@brivael When Polish mercenary Rafał Gan-Ganowicz was asked how it felt to take human life.. He famously replied, "I wouldn't know, I've only killed communists.”

Déboîter du communiste à la chaîne, c’est mon hobby préféré, ça me purifie 🤣

@wolfejosh Serious problem

Turkey. Problem. You are warned

@Ste_B3e @erik14061356 @brivael Aren’t socialists supposed to all share one subscription..jerkers of the world unite

@erik14061356 @brivael He would have asked Engels to pay for the subscription

Hello Julia, sans aucune ironie, c'est top que tu prennes le temps de te renseigner. Mais le problème quand on lit Marx aujourd'hui, c'est qu'on prend pour acquis sa prémisse de départ, alors qu'elle a été démontée scientifiquement il y a plus de 150 ans. Toute la pensée de Marx repose sur la théorie de la valeur-travail. L'idée que la valeur d'un bien vient de la quantité de travail nécessaire pour le produire. Si tu acceptes cette prémisse, alors oui, tout son raisonnement tient. Le capitaliste "vole" la plus-value du travailleur, l'exploitation est mathématique, la révolution est inévitable. Sauf qu'en 1871, trois économistes (Menger en Autriche, Jevons en Angleterre, Walras en Suisse) découvrent indépendamment la même chose : la valeur n'est pas objective, elle est subjective et marginale. Un verre d'eau dans le désert vaut une fortune. Le même verre à côté d'une rivière ne vaut rien. Le travail incorporé est identique. Donc le travail ne détermine pas la valeur. C'est le consommateur qui valorise un bien selon son utilité marginale dans un contexte donné. Exemple concret : tu peux passer 1000 heures à tricoter un pull moche que personne ne veut. Selon Marx, ce pull a énormément de valeur (beaucoup de travail incorporé). Selon la réalité, il ne vaut rien. Parce que personne n'en veut. À l'inverse, Bernard Arnault crée des milliards de valeur non pas parce qu'il "exploite" mais parce qu'il a su anticiper et organiser des désirs humains à grande échelle. La valeur est créée par la coordination, pas extraite par le vol. Cette découverte (la révolution marginaliste) a invalidé tout l'édifice marxiste. Pas pour des raisons idéologiques, pour des raisons scientifiques. C'est pour ça que plus aucun département d'économie sérieux au monde n'enseigne Marx comme un cadre d'analyse valide. On l'enseigne en histoire de la pensée. Maintenant, le truc important. Si ton intention en lisant Marx c'est d'aider les pauvres (c'est une intention noble), alors tu vas être surprise par ce qui suit. Regarde les chiffres de la Banque mondiale. En 1820, 90% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Cette chute historique ne s'est PAS produite dans les pays qui ont appliqué Marx. Elle s'est produite dans les pays qui ont libéralisé leur économie. Chine post-1978, Vietnam post-1986, Inde post-1991, Pologne post-1989. À chaque fois qu'un pays libéralise, des centaines de millions de gens sortent de la pauvreté en une génération. À chaque fois qu'un pays applique Marx (URSS, Cambodge, Corée du Nord, Venezuela), c'est la famine et les goulags. Ce n'est pas une opinion, c'est l'expérience la plus massive jamais menée en sciences sociales. Plusieurs milliards de cobayes humains, sur un siècle. Donc paradoxalement, si tu aimes vraiment les pauvres, la position la plus cohérente n'est pas d'être marxiste. C'est d'être pour la liberté économique. Parce que c'est empiriquement la seule chose qui a jamais sorti massivement les gens de la misère. Pour creuser, je te recommande trois lectures qui vont changer ta vision : "La Loi" de Frédéric Bastiat (court, lumineux, gratuit en ligne) "La Route de la Servitude" de Hayek "Économie en une leçon" de Henry Hazlitt Bonne lecture, et vraiment chapeau de chercher à comprendre plutôt que de rester dans tes certitudes. C'est rare.

@ctindale When do we see copx breakdown?

Our culture refuses to recognize physical risk. Seduced by the faddish optimism of the Tony Robbins generation, the managerial class maintains a cheerfulness that signals disconnection from reality. A reality from which we operate entirely severed, distracted by digital attention farming and virtue theater while the preconditions of human survival fail. Folks chant about the frailties of mainstream news yet still fail to notice a catastrophe forming under their nose. Sulfur for delivery to Brazil hits $1,000 a ton. The elites of the Late Bronze Age did the same , they obsessed over abstract finance and internal politics while our maritime arteries harden. In that time ruling class isolated themselves behind stone walls, devoting their energy to meticulous accounting. Scribes recorded the exact movements of luxury goods, perfume oils, and individual sheep on Linear B clay tablets. Like today the administrative class relied entirely on a highly fragile, long-distance maritime supply chain. They required imports of tin from Central Asia and copper from Cyprus to forge bronze tools and weapons. As the Mediterranean trade routes collapsed under the pressure of the Sea Peoples and systemic environmental failures, the palaces lost access to these materials. The elites responded to physical supply chain failure by intensifying their internal procedures. The final archives at Pylos, show administrators obsessively tallying taxation quotas, rearranging coastal defense rosters on paper, and organizing tribute for the gods. They maintained an administrative simulation of a functioning economy right up to the moment the infrastructure burned down around them. The palace complex managed the ledger while the civilization starved. The disconnection like today was between the financial and material ledger Society has lost the practical competence and productive discipline required to sustain its own existence. Worse it fails to notice the failure A civilisation that is becoming increasingly unable to translate its monetary abstractions pays the price . This series is an excellent portrayal of the Bronze Age collapse open.spotify.com/episode/5TVDAe…

@BarelyTrying92 @George_Friedman Wow you seem really smart..where can I find any of your books so I can compare them to Mr. Friedman’s?

@George_Friedman terrible take. hina's biggest partner in the MO is Saudi Arabia - and that's the real player China does not want to alienate. Alas, what would you know...

China is very dependent on imports of oil, and much of that flows to China through the Strait of Malacca, not to mention Chinese exports flowing out through the strait. Any long-term closure of the Strait of Malacca would certainly hurt China severely. China’s best bet as to the current issues with the Strait of Hormuz would be to hang back and let the United States negotiate an end to the war with Iran, which would make oil-exporting countries in the Middle East very happy. China is caught in a tough position not because of insurance, but because it needs to increase exports to the United States in order to stabilize its own economy, and is awaiting the Xi-Trump summit that Trump postponed in March because of the Iran war and now rescheduled for May. So China in general is keeping some distance from the war because it doesn’t want to alienate Trump on imports from China, nor Iran because of the strait. This time China just wants this war over with as soon as possible, and to hold the summit with Trump. Interesting situation.

@zriboua Also he is one of those rich people; his father built his fortune (which he supposedly lost all of) by taking over cotton plants from Armenians following their actual (rather than Qatari sponsored imaginary) genocide

Reminder that we just spent a whole week hearing people pompously rationalize “social murder” and “microlooting,” talking about criminality and violence as something morally acceptable as long as it’s to hurt "colonizers and rich people." Sick.

@dailydirtnap Got a link? Wondering what he’s actually being charged with

These prediction markets are not long for this world

@brett_mcgurk We never hear about the command structure of the Artesh. Do they exercise any domestic power?

Unusual: Iran’s Foreign Minister and Speaker of Parliament—the two key members of its negotiating team—with simultaneous statements insisting that all is fine and unified in Tehran.

@ChinaBeigeBook It’s all Baudrillard

Lately, we've been adopting the Chinese economic playbook when it's useful. And now, apparently even when it is ridiculous.

@PolarityRadio @MarioNawfal Trita works for the Quincy Institute iyky These guys are treasonous

Watch oil prices, get lower and lower and lower, regardless whether we’re there or not there watching gold prices go lower and silver prices go lower and gold volatility go lower and Silver volatility lower is the direct consequence of the global slowdown that’s having a limited effect on the US and it’s gonna cause emerging markets to be forced to sell their stuff and that’s going to be deflationary for the US

🇺🇸 Trump walking away is the most likely outcome. Trita Parsi says there's a 70% chance that Trump gets zero concessions from Iran and concedes the Strait of Hormuz. "He walks away. He doesn't get a deal signed. He doesn't get nuclear concessions. He doesn't give sanctions relief. The Iranians continue to control the Strait." The US already knows it. That's why they tried to cut themselves in on the tolls. @tparsi

@vtchakarova What’s coming? Something good, right??

If you are mentally prepared for what's coming (and in addition, you have taken all precautionary measures at your disposal), you do not panic. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

@PolarityRadio @SpecialSitsNews And buys time for Bush carrier strike group to arrive The imbecility on X is incredible

And the closed straight will do a lot of damage to Asia. It will cause capital flight which will go into US treasury bonds. This was the plan from the beginning, get China to think they could get their exports shoved into a emerging markets in Europe and think that they’re immune from the inflationary effects of holding their currency high in contrast to what they did in 2018, which was to weaken their currency 8% and tell their export is to absorb it the residual 2% but this time they think they collaborate with the US media and people on the Twitter sphere who hate Trump and just say inflation, inflation inflation, but it’s not working out for them because the blockade is gonna cause a recession or depression in Asia and a recession in Europe, which is gonna cause them to cut interest Rates which is gonna make the dollar go up and dis inflate so for Trump haters it’s not gonna work out

Trump extending ceasefire indefinitely calmed down the market but the strait remains closed

@nnzp1730 @profplum99 🤣🤣🤣

@max_entropic @profplum99 Well when you explain it like that….of course it is 🤷‍♂️

I am rapidly realizing that claims of “5D chess” are originating from those who can’t understand 4D chess.

@nnzp1730 @profplum99 Easy It’s 10D chess minus 1

@profplum99 Well…that’s a total of 9D, how can we possibly understand 9D? 😏

@emilyinvc The person tweeting about it?

is there anyone broker than the guy who thinks amex plat is a flex?

@wolfejosh Have you read @George_Friedman The Next 100 years? Uncanny

Not yet front page news. Will be.