Minnervator.

@MTValues @lemmiwinkster Small arbitrage opportunity there.

Today's Polymarket Odds: #mtpol

@jmullen2 Not crossover voting, which is a non viable strategy that attracts suckers, but crossover money and messaging.

@jmullen2 There is so much ratfucking going on in this state right now in primaries, both at the state and federal level. Issues with party politics aside, people deserve a real choice.

There is no downside to revealing donors who you’re going to be required to reveal. Unless there’s a real downside to revealing those donors.

@lemmiwinkster absolutely vile behavior.

George Nikolakakos just proved why he’s unfit for public office. His vile, personal attack on young Finley Warden — a clean, principled conservative running for state office — is disgusting and beneath Montana values. Mocking a young man’s faith and character with cheap shots like that shows exactly who George is: a bitter RINO more interested in tearing down good conservatives than fighting for Montana. Finley Warden is running a positive, issue-focused race. George should be ashamed. Real leaders build up the next generation of conservatives — we don’t smear them. Montana deserves better than this kind of gutter politics. I stand with Finley and every young conservative fighting for our state. #MTPol #MTNews #MTSen #MTLeg @MTGOP @MTHouseGOP @MTSenateGOP @GovGianforte

@LukasSchubertMT Bro, we currently have a foreign prog billionaire who is the largest contributor to the mother ship funding half of our "republican" party.

Last session I fought for legislation to ban foreign billionaires who don't live in Montana and foreign companies from buying/owning land in Montana. IT'S TIME TO PUT MONTANANS FIRST!

@libsofmontana Is this real?

It was falsely claimed that this is an "anti-democrat" page. FALSE. We are a page exposing liberals and their ridiculousness regardless of party affiliation. Perfect example: the drunken republican representative from Great Falls can't help but attack Finley Warden who is already a more mature person than George. Maybe people should ask George about his 2023 legislative female side hustle and why he keeps drunk posting stuff. .@mt4ltdgov @mtfreedomcaucus @gvsentinel #mtpol #mtleg #mtnews @mcforyou @drukoester @galloway4mt @gundersonMTHD1 @TManzella1 @SFC_Network @GrageDustin @BobPhalen2 @BraxtonMT @JaneGillette @andyroth @DanBartel13 @NellyBigskynel @RepLeeDeming @nolleymidriver1 @ShannonManess1 @TacoFalk

@jmullen2 I heard the turnout for the event was very impressive. Great to see people engaged, no matter the team ;-). Good luck on your next steps.

FYI

I have a pretty broad and welcoming view of conservatism, but I think you guys allow too much to be smuggled in under that banner. So, at least for me, the debate about Medicaid expansion, once in place, really is a rich one touching on current programs, promises made, traditions etc. There is a lot of room under my tent for that. On the other hand, I am not sure how any conservative tent as explained by your guest includes a massive new state sovereign wealth fund. That's about as not conservative as it gets. Furthermore, I think a major question is begged, especially with regard to the latter issue. Competence is simply assumed, when that thing wouldn't pass muster in a high school survey of finance. I do enjoy your pieces, just think it is time to be slightly less reductive about what these 'factions' represent.

Less than a month till the primary election - but who’s counting… @mtpublicradio @MTPol @SeabornLarson @RobSaldin mtpr.org/podcast/campai…

@libsofmontana Are these even the same George Nikolakakos as the one we have here?

@jmullen2 I certainly don't speak for her or her campaign, but she is extremely supportive of both.

@minnervator If your SO picks up that seat, I hope she remembers MSP is the only reason Deer Lodge isn’t Drummond right now. It and the schools are the only sizable middle class work forces left in Powell County.

It’s a shame solutions caucus Republicans tied their ships to dark money consultancy Fireweed. We’re going to lose some really effective legislators due to sloppy consultancy hijinks, just like we did with Sen. Tester. politicalpractices.mt.gov/Home/Docket-of…

@lemmiwinkster Is that what Fireweed teaches their assets?

🚨🚨THEFT OF CAMPAIGN LITERATURE IS A CRIME IN MONTANA🚨🚨 Watch this video for yourself: Local RINO Linda Reksten and her campaign manager caught on camera stealing their opponent’s literature. This is textbook misdemeanor theft under Montana Code 45-6-101(1)(a) & (1)(b). We cannot allow dishonest people like this to serve in our state legislature. Montana deserves better. Finley Warden HD 13 (@FinleyWarden) is the right choice. Vote Finley Warden on June 2nd. It’s time to take a stand against this nonsense. No more RINOs. No more corruption. Share this. Call it out. Vote them out. #MTPol #MTNews #MTSen #MTLeg @MTGOP @MTHouseGOP @MTSenateGOP @GovGianforte

@quantbeckman This seems honestly light in math for what the job requires at any serious level. I am sure they can get there, but I'd want to know that people can think in characteristic functions or expectation space, not that they know first quarter probability rules.

QUANT BIBLE - MIT Sloan Business Club... Okay, if you want to mistake quant interview prep for becoming a quant, this is your "holy grail" 😬 Link in the comments 👇👇

@PtrPomorski Wow, and so hard to find. Call me when somebody has swaption cubes for free.

Yes, because interest rates are fixed income, and not macro. Another service with 0 knowledge on the matter.

A similar look at two issues, one, one time surplusses, green line, are now into their sixth year, which is the definition of not one time. Two, state total assets have been accumulated entirely during that period. So this really doesn't look at all like sequestering one time gains, but rather like making Helena the beneficiary of the increases in Montana prosperity.

You’ve probably heard the official line: State government only grew 0.7% this biennium. Sounds like state government is barely growing. But that's only part of the story. The 0.7% metric only looks at the state's checkbook (revenues coming in and appropriations flowing out). The state just released its newest Annual Comprehensive Financial Report for FY25 (the ACFR). This report looks at the state's full balance sheet, not just the checkbook. The ACFR can tell us: “How much taxpayer money is the government using?” It measures assets and liabilities the state has accumulated over time. So how much taxpayer money is the government using in 2025, according to the ACFR? We compiled this graph to illustrate. As you can see, the state has accumulated BILLIONS more taxpayer resources on its balance sheet over the last 5 years. Committed fund balances grew 392% from FY 20-25, from $870M to $4.28B. The FY2025 surge includes $589M in new GO Trust accounts alone. That's $3.41 Billion in additional taxpayer money that was collected by the state, but not “spent”, and not returned to you, the taxpayer. No, it’s not federal COVID $ that is inflating the balance sheet here. Those $'s either got spent and moved off the books or sit in restricted accounts not reflected on this chart. The ACFR data paints a stark picture of state government growth. The state has redirected large portions of surplus to committed accounts dedicated to serving government interests, rather than sending it back to taxpayers. The state government’s financial footprint, the amount of taxpayer money it has taken and kept for its own use, has grown immensely. The ACFR Net Position data leaves no doubt that the state government is bigger, financially, than ever before. The "0.7% growth" number is a cash-flow illusion. The real size of state government is exploding on the balance sheet. The question for taxpayers is whether this growth is appropriate or excessive. For advocates of limiting the size and scope of state government, the ACFR report could be your best weapon. Read it, utilize it. Full story & graph in the latest Frontier Weekly newsletter linked below!

@ChrisMehl7 Realistically looks like approaching a limit that probably represents the structural potential of the economy given capital + policy as current

Employment in #Montana statewide has been flat or slightly down since June 2024 (528.3K). #mtnews Larger MT city numbers in post below.

@Econ_4_Everyone Becker was, of course, the greatest, but today it seems like her insights into her own field are central to the world. Did she share any?

I recently visited this lovely lady, Guity Becker, and we talked about issues ranging from Iran to her late husband Gary Becker. She is still sharp as a tack, with great great economic and worldly insights. Through our discussion I began to realize that she surely brought a depth and breadth to the Becker intellectual partnership that is easy to underappreciate. As a historian of the Middle East and women in Islamic society, she brought Gary into contact with questions and contexts that enriched his thinking in ways that pure economics never could have. I often say Economics is Life and Life is Economics. Gary's seminal work, which showed that economics truly has no boundaries, is a testament to what happens when two genuinely different intellectual traditions meet in a true and loving partnership. PS in the background you can see Gary competing in our faculty student softball game. I played in this game a handful of times when I first arrived but unfortunately we longer play that game. It is likely because we were 3-0 against them during those years. I understand why the students gave up, but it just doesn’t feel like the Chicago Way!

@salr_nyc @mean_field_zane fair, but we still need models to hedge them!

@minnervator @mean_field_zane

The distance between the usefulness of working on no arbitrage pricing-based options pricing models and the fun you can have doing so is enormous. The nature of things is that no-arbitrage models aren’t as academically useful, and they’re not really useful for traders either: they’ve moved on to modelling how *others* might price and/or trade options, or use more basic models alongside signals & edge to profit. Even if you wanted to specify a model to help with that, it likely wouldn’t work because the misspecification error within a liquid market would kill your ability to profit. otoh, those models are fun to work on!

@libsofmontana I hear he is a movie star.

Great Falls state legislator George Nikolakakos responds to a candidate questionnaire with "eat a bag of s%*#$%." He is running for Senate District 12 in Great Falls and refuses to answer questions about his stance on any topic. But he dumped $95,000 of his own money into his race. What is the payoff he's looking for? Share this post. .@libsoftiktok @mt4ltdgov @mtfreedomcaucus @gvsentinel #mtpol #mtleg #mtnews @bozchron @SamUSOH @LizaOrloff @MTGOP @the_posts @repleedeming @ShannonManess1 @My_Freedom_USA @BobPhalen2 @ChrisTheRed6669 @mtroughrider @CarlosB1776 @RaymondKepics