Monkey Luffy

@aakashgupta Just use @FactoryAI which is so much better than cursor. Super bad look on cursor & beginning to look like a Forbes 30u30 grift

Cursor is raising at a $50 billion valuation on the claim that its “in-house models generate more code than almost any other LLMs in the world.” Less than 24 hours after launching Composer 2, a developer found the model ID in the API response: kimi-k2p5-rl-0317-s515-fast. That’s Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2.5 with reinforcement learning appended. A developer named Fynn was testing Cursor’s OpenAI-compatible base URL when the identifier leaked through the response headers. Moonshot’s head of pretraining, Yulun Du, confirmed on X that the tokenizer is identical to Kimi’s and questioned Cursor’s license compliance. Two other Moonshot employees posted confirmations. All three posts have since been deleted. This is the second time. When Cursor launched Composer 1 in October 2025, users across multiple countries reported the model spontaneously switching its inner monologue to Chinese mid-session. Kenneth Auchenberg, a partner at Alley Corp, posted a screenshot calling it a smoking gun. KR-Asia and 36Kr confirmed both Cursor and Windsurf were running fine-tuned Chinese open-weight models underneath. Cursor never disclosed what Composer 1 was built on. They shipped Composer 1.5 in February and moved on. The pattern: take a Chinese open-weight model, run RL on coding tasks, ship it as a proprietary breakthrough, publish a cost-performance chart comparing yourself against Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4 without disclosing that your base model was free, then raise another round. That chart from the Composer 2 announcement deserves its own paragraph. Cursor plotted Composer 2 against frontier models on a price-vs-quality axis to argue they’d hit a superior tradeoff. What the chart doesn’t show is that Anthropic and OpenAI trained their models from scratch. Cursor took an open-weight model that Moonshot spent hundreds of millions developing, ran RL on top, and presented the output as evidence of in-house research. That’s margin arbitrage on someone else’s R&D dressed up as a benchmark slide. The license makes this more than an attribution oversight. Kimi K2.5 ships under a Modified MIT License with one clause designed for exactly this scenario: if your product exceeds $20 million in monthly revenue, you must prominently display “Kimi K2.5” on the user interface. Cursor’s ARR crossed $2 billion in February. That’s roughly $167 million per month, 8x the threshold. The clause covers derivative works explicitly. Cursor is valued at $29.3 billion and raising at $50 billion. Moonshot’s last reported valuation was $4.3 billion. The company worth 12x more took the smaller company’s model and shipped it as proprietary technology to justify a valuation built on the frontier lab narrative. Three Composer releases in five months. Composer 1 caught speaking Chinese. Composer 2 caught with a Kimi model ID in the API. A P0 incident this year. And a benchmark chart that compares an RL fine-tune against models requiring billions in training compute without disclosing the base was free. The question for investors in the $50 billion round: what exactly are you buying? A VS Code fork with strong distribution, or a frontier research lab? The model ID in the API answers that. If Moonshot doesn’t enforce this license against a company generating $2 billion annually from a derivative of their model, the attribution clause becomes decoration for every future open-weight release. Every AI lab watching this is running the same math: why open-source your model if companies with better distribution can strip attribution, call it proprietary, and raise at 12x your valuation? kimi-k2p5-rl-0317-s515-fast is the most expensive model ID leak in the history of AI licensing.

@HudsonInstitute Indeed. US is built on the back of elites, grifters, politicians who rightfully used the commoners to climb where they’re. That’s why US will prosper, as the peasants can be replaced easily & controlled via lies & debt.

China's economy is built on the backs of the Chinese people. This model is unsustainable, harmful, and could produce rapid decline. Read more in Tom Duesterberg's expert analysis below. hudson.org/economics/how-…

@TihoBrkan 700 is better run than so many US companies including $meta that 🔥 $ on metaverse. I personally think it’ll have a much higher multiple if it’s a US co. This is good for us though, as it’s a value company that should go up if US ever goes into a lost decade

Tencent's $TCEHY stock has recovered much of the 2021-24 Chinese stock downturn, yet its multiple remains depressed, as if the downturn is ongoing. Why? The quick answer is that no one really knows what multiples signal at any one point in time. But here is the long answer. 👇 • Market consensus has mispriced Tencent as a slow-growing, mature legacy company. The current multiple prices in low-single-digit terminal growth (think via the reverse DCF), failing to reflect reaccelerating growth and operating leverage in high-margin segments and an exciting AI opportunity in an oligopolistic "closed garden" (Chinese digital economy does not allow for outsiders to compete against Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and other local companies). • During the recent quarterly transcript, the management signalled an aggressive AI R&D and CapEx cycle for 2026. This implies a near-term drag on FCF generation — and FCF, not EBIT, is the lifeblood of corporate value. Investors are therefore penalising Tencent on its unproven future investments, despite a two-decade stellar track record. • An aggressive CapEx cycle also indicates the potential for the ROC to deteriorate. If we think about CapEx from an accounting perspective: firstly, it impacts near-term FCF generation; secondly, the investments are capitalised on the balance sheet (inflating PPE); and finally, there will be eventual depreciation expenses on the P&L statement impacting earnings. ROC will probably move in the wrong direction unless earnings growth can outpace investments. However, management has also signalled that ROI on these outlays will take time. • Tencent has shifted from a hyper-growth stock to a more balanced mature business (which also returns capital to shareholders). Investors might be discounting recent share buybacks and dividends as a signal that the future growth drivers are limited and structurally assign lower valuation multiples to such cases. Nevertheless, we know the management is very opportunistic (buying only during downturns), and recently indicated buybacks will be much lower as AI growth drivers take priority. • There will be an elevated geopolitical discount in place. I'm no geopolitical expert (and the experts themselves are constantly wrong anyway), but persistent tensions regarding the Taiwan issue, coupled with technology import/export restrictions and the ongoing trade war (tariffs), are probably forcing global investors to apply a substantial discount to the multiple. Chinese equities have been called "uninvestable", with many institutional providers pivoting to "Emerging Markets ex-China" ETFs. • Then, there are Mainland macroeconomic headwinds to consider. China’s ongoing property sector deleveraging and depressed consumer sentiment act as a massive drag on domestic advertising budgets and payment network volumes. Tencent is outperforming the digital ad industry, still growing rapidly, and gaining market share — but its payments segment's growth rates are dull (WeChat Pay). Such macroeconomic issues will probably keep revenue growth forecasts and valuation multiples depressed for the time being (and maybe indefinitely). • Let's also think about what this is and what it isn't. This is an earnings-driven price appreciation. The stock's 3-year bull run, from the October 2022 lows, alongside a flat or declining EV/EBIT multiple, suggests that shareholders are strictly being rewarded by underlying profitability and margin execution (operating performance). This isn't market exuberance or multiple expansion. There is probably no froth in the stock price, and the expectations embedded in its valuation are probably muted. • One of the biggest fallacies with multiples is the expectation of mean reversion within the historical range. Expecting the EV/EBIT multiple to return to its historical mean or median is folly. Multiples are non-stationary data series influenced by external macroeconomic factors (economic growth, interest rates, geopolitics, changes in tax rates and regulation, etc). Maybe the high multiples of the 2010s (especially the peak in 2021) were byproducts of ZIRP and QE (zero interest rate policy and endless money printing). This structural regime no longer exists. • Tencent is no longer the monopoly it once was, since the industry's competitive landscape has changed and will probably continue to do so. Unlike the prior decade, when Tencent was largely uncontested in certain digital arenas, today it faces fierce rivalry with ByteDance (Douyin/TikTok). The market might be applying a lower multiple when a company's economic moat requires constant, margin-dilutive defence. I've listed 9 potential reasons as to why multiples are behaving the way they are. There could be dozens of others, but I don't have a whole day to write this post (no, I don't use AI to write my tweets or posts). I continue to advise novice (and advanced) investors to avoid relying on multiples for insights, since these are only a shortcut that leads to many blind spots. Unless you are prepared to do the deep work and understand the business you own (disclosure: we have owned $TCEHY for nearly 4 years), referring to multiples for quick assumptions (cheap, expensive, etc) will definitely have adverse effects on your decision-making and cost your brokerage account dearly. Stay away from this "shortcut" and do the proper research, deep analysis and understand what you actually own.

@haugejostein But how about holding Iran for their crime killing 000s of their own people? This is allowed by international law?

Kaja Kallas, you are the one deepening the chaos by lying through your teeth about who is to blame for the escalation. Iran hit the LNG plant in Qatar in retaliation for Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field. This is widely reported. I agree with you that the war in the Middle East needs an exit. This starts with holding the US and Israel accountable for their crimes and breaches of international law — something you are clearly incapable of.

@Alex_TheAnalyst @Jesse_Livermore So true but these are exactly the kind of people you can automate away & reap productivity gains. Only keep the ones with critical thinking skills & ability to manage the agents

I'm going to call this right now. We are going to have a large population with absolutely no critical thinking skills if they blindly trust AI for everything. We have all already seen it. They don't validate outputs. They don't really understand anything. They just ask questions, it looks good, and they go with it. There are going to be huge issues in every company as this continues over the years. The amount of technical debt and knowledge gaps are going to be insane. So much opportunity if you actually know what you're doing.

@RnaudBertrand Qatar also funded a lot of terrorist activities in the region. Look at how that’s helping with Iran’s attacks now 😄They Don’t dare to stand up to Iranians, deserted by allies & showed they can only do things with LNG $.

A reminder that Qatar pulled all the stops to buy Trump, they even gifted him a $400m plane (bbc.com/news/articles/…). His response was to literally blow up their economy.

@MauiBoyMacro $META The biggest company in the world that sells products of zero value and causes societal harm. World will not collapse if FB, IG etc disappear and only inFLUencers will be seriously impacted. Let's see if they can win the Chinese AI companies and how much $ they'll burn

$80,000,000,000.00 👇🏼 Oops!

@FirstSquawk And yet Qatar don't have the balls to stand up to Iran. Serve them right for supporting terrorism over the years. Now understanding how it feels when they're terrorised.

QATAR'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: TARGETING ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTITUTES A THREAT TO GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY, TO THE PEOPLE OF THE REGION, AND TO ITS ENVIRONMENT

@aakashgupta @grok why is openclaw able to have this consciousness that claude cowork lack? Is it only because of soul.md & heartbeat or is there something more?

Our Guest on why OpenClaw has something Claude Cowork never will: consciousness "The biggest difference is that in the case of OpenClaw, we have a continual daemon that just lives and runs consistently on your machine. Unlike Claude Cowork, which is still to a large extent reactive. You still have to point it to stuff, give it skills, make sure it's still trying to do what you want. For me, the biggest differentiator between the two is the idea of consciousness. OpenClaw almost has a version of you that lives in your computer, jumps through your RAM, has access to your file systems. It never sleeps, it's able to do things on its own using its own consciousness based on things that it inferred from what you told it. Not all is directly what you told it. There is nothing Cowork does that is actually autonomous. It cannot make decisions by itself based on an idea that it has about you. OpenClaw can."

@Scobleizer It's great you are helping out with $CNQQ. I own the ETF and it will be great if you can provide intel that helps Rayliant make informed investments.

I thought I knew everything about autonomous vehicles, but, nope. I almost got in an argument with cofounder @dfergusonnz of @nuro about LiDAR at NVIDIA GTC during his session. He laid out that LiDAR shows safety improvements. But then said that LiDAR can see a kid all in black at night lying on the road around a turn. My answer? Matrix headlights see all that. Truth be told, his session at GTC was awesome and Nuro has amazing tech that can generalize to any vehicle. He showed it off driving in Japan for the first time driving on a left hand road it had never seen before. But seriously, been doing a ton of work today to understand the autonomous vehicle industry. Talked with NVIDIA's team, met people from General Motors, Uber, and others, attended a class by Nuro's founder, and on Friday NVIDIA is taking me for a ride. The thing that stunned me was NVIDIA's simulator. You give it a picture of a road and a prompt and it creates a simulated road for you. Then you can make it snow, rain, or any number of situations. Put pedestrians on. And all created with a fairly small model. Now I understand why NVIDIA is in love with simulators. I asked Jensen at his press conference about it. And what it means for glasses coming soon. And he was bullish on the future of glasses to show both ground truth (reality) and whatever you want the simulator to show you (the Holodeck). GTC 2030 is gonna be insane. :-) Videos will come someday. I have a ton of them and no time to edit or upload. Packed the week with too many meetings. Be back over the weekend. Or I might steal one of those simulators. The whole thing was running on a box under the demo station. You think @AlexFinn has cool inferencing computers under his desk? A Mac can't simulate any road, with any condition, and his Mac doesn't have a steering wheel. New goals. :-) Oh, and the conclusion (yes I'm burying the lede, as we say in journalism circles): Pretty much car company will have self driving cars within 18 months. Which is awesome. Fewer lives lost. The real question is who can do Robotaxi. Nuro is only planning on a few tens of thousands of vehicles. That's not nearly aggressive enough for me. Guy who works for GM was sitting next to me and he said "the companies can't figure out the liability and regulation issues yet to really scale up." Back to the argument, he said LiDARs cost in "low thousands" now. In the car industry that's a huge amount, as one analyst that I didn't catch name of, pointed out in the audience. Everyone I'm talking to says Tesla drives smoother than the others. Will see on Friday when I get my ride in NVIDIA's. My money is still on Tesla. They have all the pieces to do Robotaxi at scale and become the "Starbucks" of Robotaxis. But this market is just starting, so the next 18 months are gonna be highly entertaining. More arguments ahead. So honored to be reporting for CNQQ. Chinese Tech ETF. Investors in China are highly interested in autonomous vehicles. funds.rayliant.com/cnqq/

@toddsaunders Name the VC then else this is just another story that is plausible but not grounded in reality.

We all knew this was coming… but today I heard about it actually happening. A seed stage company backed by a well known VC openly admitted (in a board deck) that their strategy is to get access to a large incumbent’s software from a customer, clone the entire thing using Claude Code, and offer it at 90% less. Not “build something better.” Just copy it and offer it for less. The VC endorsed this as the GTM strategy. And even wrote back in writing that it was a good idea. Using a customer’s licensed access to reverse engineer a product and clone it is ethically bankrupt. I don’t know how else to put it. It likely violates terms of service. It may violate trade secret law as well (but I’m certainly not a lawyer). And a reputable VC putting this in writing in a board deck is genuinely insane. But it’s going to happen anyway. Everywhere… all the time. I don’t know where this ends, but we all knew this was coming and now it’s here.

@shanaka86 @DisruptorStocks This looks really serious so wtf is the whole world not bombing Iran and forcing them to back off? Nobody has the balls to do so? Don’t say US & Israel need to back down. Not gonna happen & they didn’t hold the world hostage like the Islamic republic is doing now

BREAKING: Everyone is watching the Strait of Hormuz for oil and fertilizer. Almost nobody has noticed that it is also shutting down MRI machines, semiconductor fabs, and the global aerospace supply chain. Helium. The second lightest element in the universe. No substitute exists for it. You cannot synthesize it. You cannot replace it. And roughly one-third of the world’s supply just went offline. Qatar produces 30 to 33 percent of global helium as a byproduct of LNG processing at Ras Laffan, home to the largest helium production facilities on Earth. When the Hormuz blockade triggered LNG force majeure declarations and attacks hit Qatari infrastructure, the helium stopped flowing with it. Prices have doubled in spot markets. And helium has a property that makes this crisis structurally different from oil, fertilizer, or any other commodity caught behind the strait. It evaporates. Continuously. Even in sealed containers, helium boils off. The global supply chain operates on roughly 45 days of buffer before existing inventory simply ceases to exist. You cannot stockpile helium the way you stockpile crude oil in salt caverns or grain in silos. If the supply stops for six weeks, the buffer is gone. Not depleted. Gone. Returned to the atmosphere where it is too diffuse to economically recapture. This is why the industries that depend on helium are facing a crisis that no financial instrument can solve. Semiconductor manufacturing requires ultra-pure helium for wafer cooling in lithography and for leak detection in sub-5-nanometre chip fabrication. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot produce advanced processors without it. Every AI chip, every smartphone processor, every data centre GPU in the current generation traces its manufacturing lineage through a helium-cooled process. If fabs run dry, the production lines stop. Not slow. Stop. MRI machines require liquid helium to cool superconducting magnets to near absolute zero. Hospitals cannot substitute another gas. When helium supply tightens, MRI availability falls. During previous shortages, hospitals rationed scans. A sustained one-third supply cut puts diagnostic imaging capacity at risk across every healthcare system that depends on magnetic resonance. Aerospace depends on helium for purging rocket fuel systems, pressurising tanks, and testing for leaks in systems where failure means explosion. NASA, SpaceX, ULA, and every launch provider in the Western world runs on helium. Fibre optic cable manufacturing requires helium atmospheres. Quantum computing research requires helium-3 isotopes for cryogenic cooling. The US is the world’s largest helium producer and has some buffer capacity. Algeria and Russia produce meaningful volumes. Overland rerouting from Qatar through Oman and Saudi Arabia is theoretically possible but logistically slow and capacity-limited. None of these alternatives can replace one-third of global supply within the 45-day evaporation window that defines the crisis timeline. The same 21-mile strait that is starving the food system is now threatening the technological infrastructure of modern civilization. The fertilizer trapped behind Hormuz determines whether four billion people eat. The helium trapped behind Hormuz determines whether the chips powering the AI revolution get manufactured, whether cancer patients receive diagnostic scans, and whether rockets carrying communications satellites reach orbit. One chokepoint. Two invisible supply chains. Both irreplaceable. Both operating on biological or physical deadlines that no ceasefire retroactively extends. The world built petroleum reserves. It never built fertilizer reserves. It never built helium reserves either. The pattern keeps repeating. The lesson keeps being ignored. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@DerekJGrossman Yet another white guy creating another 🇹🇼invasion porn story to arouse themselves. Difficult to keep it up when the only ones talking about an invasion are white men who are mostly from 🇺🇸. Meanwhile life goes on in 🇨🇳🇹🇼& the rest of Asia.

I’m now in Singapore, and I just can’t stop thinking about the uncomfortable parallels between here and Dubai. Both are very modern and considered business and tourism friendly. But both are in dangerous neighborhoods, along strategic choke points, whether the Strait of Hormuz or Strait of Malacca. Whoever controls these channels is of utmost importance during crisis or war. Meanwhile, Iran retaliated against UAE for its US military support, and I can’t guarantee China while invading Taiwan wouldn’t do the same against Singapore for its logistical and maintenance support of US military assets.

@JacobShap It's basically a city that's too small to handle an event like SXSW. It's been like that for a while and they still keep growing SXSW without growing city infra

Ladies and gents the most powerful country in the world

@MotulX22 @RnaudBertrand Yet another idiotic wumao gang post that didn’t understand the full context of PM Wong’s comment. Interesting that China didn’t make any noise, as they understood where 🇸🇬is coming from. The cited JMFA survey is about most important partner in the future & not about trust.

SG PM, @LawrenceWongST, your lack of foresight and integrity is showing...

@RnaudBertrand I’m a big 🇯🇵fan but I take offense with Lai’s greater east Asia sphere narrative. Many people died in SEA during 🇯🇵invasion of the region during ww2. Now dpp is siding with right wing 🇯🇵who still deny ww2 atrocities? I like 🇹🇼but this is too much. Need apology from Lai

That's easily the most insanely provocative statement that Taiwan's Lai Ching-Te has ever made, and that's a very high bar. In a speech on Saturday (full speech here: youtube.com/watch?v=RH9kwU…) he literally said that Imperial Japan's colonial rule over Taiwan was better than that of the KMT (Chiang Kai-shek's party that built modern Taiwan and his main opposition party today). His exact words: "Japan colonized Taiwan in order to advance the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. The Nationalist government came to Taiwan just the same - merely [treating it] as a springboard for retaking the mainland. And especially after the KMT government arrived in Taiwan, the way it treated the Taiwanese people was even worse than colonial-ruled Taiwan - worse than colonial Japan's treatment of Taiwan." There's so much wrong with this, I'm not even sure where to start. First of all, the expression "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" to frame Japanese imperialism during WW2 is anything but neutral: it's Imperial Japan's own propaganda term for their imperial project of domination of Asia. An empire, incidentally, that the WW2 allies - including his U.S. patrons - lost millions of soldiers defeating. Used unironically as he does, it's like describing Nazi Germany's occupation of Europe as an effort to build a "Prosperous New European Order" 🤢 Secondly, the man is literally - officially - the President of the Republic of China, the very state that Sun Yat-sen and the KMT founded. He draws his constitutional authority from the constitution they wrote, and won his presidency through the voting system they established - and then calls them worse than Imperial Japan. Heck this very speech was given at an event celebrating 30 years of direct presidential elections in Taiwan (president.gov.tw/NEWS/39886) - which the KMT itself introduced. So he used the anniversary of a KMT achievement to argue that the KMT was worse than a colonial empire that never gave Taiwanese a single vote 🤢 Lastly, the framing of the existence of a "Taiwanese people" that was subsequently colonized by both Japan and the KMT is historically and demographically absurd. Over 95% of Taiwan's population is Han Chinese, descended from mainland migrants - and that includes Lai's own family (!), which came from Pinghe county in Fujian province (#Early_life_and_education" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lai_Ching…). So framing things this way is basically saying that Japanese colonial rule over the Chinese people of Taiwan was preferable to governance by other Chinese people, including his own! You could hardly do more to insult your own ancestors, and yourself. I mean, think about the absurd twisting of history that's going on here, the degree of madness in the current Taiwanese separatist narrative. Lai doesn't hold office as the president of some independent "Taiwanese" republic: he is the president of the Republic of China - the state that took Taiwan back from Japan. His office exists because that liberation happened. As the President he is, by definition, its inheritor. And he's arguing it was a mistake because, otherwise, his entire narrative falls apart. If the KMT's arrival was a liberation - which it legally, historically, and constitutionally was - then there is no "colonized Taiwanese people," no separatist grievance, and no justification for independence. So we arrive at the absurd situation where the president of the Republic of China has to stand at a podium and argue that the Republic of China should never have retaken Taiwan. Beyond shameful.

@WealthyReadings Why would the foreign mercenaries who are there to hustle, scam, escape taxes etc be patriotic? The locals & long time residents like the big Indian population might stay but hard to believe the oppportunists will be so loyal.

If you believe Dubai's real estate is doomed... It isn't. This is the kind of event that forges patriotism, not the contrary. And you see it happening already.

@Mayhem4Markets That’s exactly what the system is meant to do. A plutocratic state like the US need to put the interests of the elite above all else. The state is meant to serve their interests. They just need to keep the people in line through propaganda & debt. System then continues

What are we really protecting if the same "system" isn't prosecuting people for the worst acts imaginable? 🤷‍♂️

@VCBrags This tweet was written before by some woman VC right? This dude is just rehashing it. Worst than a regular douchebag

Tech dudes not being annoying and smug challenge: impossible

@KrisPatel99 The GCC will not have the balls to do anything. They only dare to talk to the US and figure out ways to bribe Trump. Iran retaliation just shows how weak they actually are despite social media campaigns, big plans & throwing $ around on terrorist sponsorships etc

One way to draw the entire Gulf into the war… This is a serious miscalculation by the IRGC… By attacking infrastructure and holding the economies of the Arab states hostage, your basically inviting any sympathetic voices among your neighbors to abandon you and see you as a potential threat to their main source of income and prosperity. Who is going to want to live next to a country that has the power to hold it hostage and willing to use it. IRGC is basically tying its own noose. Everyday this war drags on, the Iranian regime is losing its grip. The only thing the US and Israel have to do now is keep pummeling them from the air and go after targets that will destabilize the day to day command and control structure. Eventually starving foot soldiers that keep the regime in charge will either turn on their own people to survive or join them in calling for thier plight to end. Biggest mistake now by the US and Israel would be to commit to a ground invasion.