Nicholas Gour

👇🧵 U.S. equities have had an exceptional run over the past 15 years. Even after the 2025 tariff-driven crash, markets rebounded hard. But when you zoom out and look at the macro cycle, the long-term setup looks far less attractive than recent performance suggests.

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No trade is worth your freedom and peace of mind.

As Carl Jung put it, "Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health." Yet most people instinctually avoid pain. This is true whether we are talking about building the body (e.g., weight lifting) or the mind (e.g., frustration, mental struggle, embarrassment, shame)--and especially true when people confront the harsh reality of their own imperfections. #principleoftheday

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life rewards action not intelligence

We had a good thing going come on man

Bitcoin is approaching a critical point in its cycle. The Accumulation Distribution Cycle Index was built to track Bitcoin through a true macro lens, filtering noise and exposing where the market stands in the broader Wyckoff structure. This incredible metric was created by @arch_physicist, who now leads Research at @Alphractal. This is not a short term trading indicator. It is a framework for identifying the market’s Path of Least Resistance. When ADCI stays between 0 and 30, Bitcoin is usually in an accumulation environment. That is where Smart Money tends to absorb supply while the crowd remains fearful, distracted, or absent. Between 30 and 70, the market is in motion. This is where trends develop, expand, or deteriorate depending on the direction of the index. Between 70 and 100, the risk of distribution increases. This is where euphoria tends to dominate and stronger hands begin offloading into public demand. What makes this cycle different is that distribution no longer needs to look like a violent blow off top. In a more mature market, it can happen through time, sideways structure, and repeated exhaustion. That is exactly why macro tools like ADCI matter. The goal is simple: identify whether Bitcoin is being accumulated or distributed before the crowd fully understands the shift. This is how you stop reacting to narratives and start reading structure. Data > Narratives.

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“If you’ve got 150 IQ and you’re in my business, go sell 20 or 30 points to somebody else because you really don’t need it. You need emotional stability.” — Warren Buffett

Nobody is talking about the 12 month rate of change on oil right now. They should be. WTI crude's ROC(12) just spiked to over 91%. Let me show you what happened every other time it did this. - 1987 Crash. - 1990 Crash. - Dot Com Bust. - 2008 Financial Crisis. - 2022 Bear Market. Every single spike of this magnitude on the 12 month rate of change has led to something breaking. Every. Single. Time. Do you really think this time we just walk away unscathed? This is your warning shot.

With the recent Royal Assent of Bill C-15, Canada is moving forward on a framework for stablecoins. The Department of Finance has begun the development of regulations to support safe, reliable digital payment options for Canadians.

Higher for longer CAPE ratio, or a decade of lower returns ahead?

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The amount of financial illiteracy on this website makes me so sick. For the love of god, if you think that the S&P/Nasdaq today represents a generational buying opportunity, please read this. Let's take a step back and decompose stock returns. Stock returns are the sum of dividend yield and price appreciation. Dividend yield has historically been between 1% and 2% every year (excluding 2008), so there is not much debate here. Price appreciation is the result of (i) earnings (EPS) growth and (ii) change in price to earnings (also called valuation/multiples). (i) EPS have compounded at ~6% for decades. Some people argue that AI will change the growth algorithm, but let's keep this aside as this is not what is driving the narrative. (ii) Change in multiple: this is essential to understand. If you buy stocks at a very expensive multiple, it will be really hard to make money, unless your earnings really grow quickly. Today, people who are screaming "buy the S&P because it is only trading at 20x forward earnings" are honestly financially illiterate. Plain and simple. They only look at the last 5 years, which has seen extremely elevated multiples, and think that buying at these levels is buying at a cheap valuation. Do you remember when Apollo posted that image saying the next 10 years' returns will be 0% and everyone talked about it for 2 days? Well, let's revisit that image with what has happened since. The S&P has contracted modestly, and the forward multiple is 20.5x today, vs 22.5x in December. What does this mean if we look at historical performance? That the expected return when buying the S&P at this valuation is 2% per year for the next decade. Read that again. The expected return when buying the S&P at this valuation is 2% per year for the next decade! Does this seem to you like a generational opportunity?

Capital deployment going to easily beat expectations as PE credit seizes up and redemptions accelerate. Headwinds into a tailwind. They will say it was obvious. $CSU

The complacency is everywhere The 16-year Bitcoin expansion is over And it is because of people like this that think it will only go up forever The more I see this behavior, the more I know deep inside it is over for many, many years This destruction and reset is necessary for growth again But not until complacency is crushed

There is nothing on this chart that indicates bullishness. As tensions escalate in the Middle East, we are seeing the dollar rise - and this is not a good sign for risk assets. By now, everyone should understand that in times of uncertainty, the safe haven investors seek is the U.S. Dollar, not risk assets. Bitcoin is holding up relatively well, but it's important to keep in mind that it sold off well before the war even began. Meanwhile, gold is rolling over, and equities are now starting to roll over as well - not just in the U.S., but globally. So, is Bitcoin showing signs of a safe haven, or did its earlier sell-off already tell us otherwise? With global liquidity declining as collateral comes under pressure, alongside a rising dollar and increasing oil prices, the fundamental backdrop is clearly not looking strong. This update is meant to emphasize caution: don't be misled by the news. War may be bullish for risk assets in the long run, but we are not there yet. Current liquidity conditions do not support that view. The RoC metric is officially in a bear market state, which is the biggest sign of concern here.

Warren Buffett: “Don’t sleepwalk through life. Find something that you really enjoy doing, if you can do it. Not everybody is lucky enough to be able to find that, but it ought to be your goal.”

hard to argue that current pa on majors doesnt look like a bear flag breaking down now.

Observation Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 drops to -0.5 on the Correlation Coefficient, and then turns sharply up, it is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it Usually there's a bounce first to add to the pain