@JoshYoung The structure exists exclusively to bid bbls out of storage and make it economically painful to roll inventory.
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Zip
428 posts
This is not how the futures market works. Backwardation signals an undersupplied market, not necessarily lower oil prices in the future.
Energy Headline News@OilHeadlineNews
Bessent: "Future prices are MUCH lower than we are at present. I think the conflict will end. I think gasoline prices will come back to where they were, or perhaps lower!"
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@EnergyPeddler Diesel stocks will be sub 100mm bbls, first time since 2003
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Can a gay 🌈 oil bear 🐻 actually give me a cogent argument as to why we shouldn’t be concerned with a potential US diesel stock out in six weeks?
Because the only thing that can prevent it at this time is price and price is obviously not doing the work.
Someone tell me why we should be confident an onslaught of supply will be coming soon.
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@dunnde @RinnyTheGopher @E_Energy_Adams Barrel sold out of refiner as non obligated vs obligated. If you're dealing with bbls over the rack you wouldn't see non obligated volume trade.
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@RinnyTheGopher @E_Energy_Adams the gallon of gasoline already has the rin price in it
like thats the diff between onshore / offshore pricing
as well as nymex futs
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Cash #ethanol in chicago was $1.875. RINS were $1.855.
Think about that. The cost of compliance (RINS) was worth a $1.855. The physical gallon is only worth $0.02.
(If you buy ethanol, you get the RIN for free.)
RBOB is over $3.20. Sad.
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Yann seems to have a fetish for being loudly wrong. Very French.
Yann LeCun@ylecun
@DrTonyCarden @Ph_Aghion @erikbryn No! It really doesn't differ qualitatively from previous technological revolutions. That's the whole point. People like Dario present it as qualitatively different. They are just deluded or biased by their vested interests in magnifying the impact of their work.
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Zip retweetledi
Some of the best PM i have see from the largest Multi-Strat firms like P72, Millennium, Tudor, Dymon all do something very similar.... KISS... they boil down a view to a simple thesis. They have a process that is mostly repeatable and they read alot.... Yes, some model out things, but mostly they just consume information and ask questions.
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@MichaelPBento I thought Damola Adamolekun was elite or was that all Covid driven off premise demand growth.
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When Gundlach said head for the door over the credit markets, you run and don't look back.
Jeffrey Gundlach@TruthGundlach
A bottom tier sponsor just marked down its Red Lobster equity position 98% OVERNIGHT. Oddly, that equity position was in a “private credit” fund. Disturbingly, that fund’s large Red Lobster debt holding is marked at par, even though the equity was basically wiped out OVERNIGHT. RUN!!!
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@TMTLongShort Rockwell Collins soon to be lead in AI frontier model financing
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There is not enough discourse around how Mythos flips the game theory for incumbent enterprise.
The narrative now is that AI is so performant that you need a period of exclusivity before it’s released to the general public so that incumbents can harden their systems.
This automatically flips the posture of the most geriatric industries from one where they are default complacent and slow to one of panic where if they don’t race to put themselves in the labs good graces they are toast because they weren’t given whitelist preview access.
Well played 🫡
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More context for people to understand who need images. Now let's try and figure out why oil isn't racing
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro
There's a 310MW fire at Abqaiq right now - nbd (and before you say gas flares, those run 10-20MW) Nbd...
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@TMTLongShort The cartoon acct is giving you the answer, sensors buddy
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He jests but this is going to happen sooner than you think. We need to close the loop first tho. Long sensors.
bubble boi@bubbleboi
I just gave Claude Mythos the full corpus of published EUV stochastic defect data from every SPIE Lithography conference since 2018. The resist shot noise problem is the reason sub-2nm nodes might not be manufacturable. Every photoresist vendor says it’s a fundamental limit. I asked Mythos to solve this… and it’s making progress. It’s designing a chemically amplified resist molecular structure atom by atom. It ran 200,000 Monte Carlo photon absorption simulations on our GPU cluster autonomously. Found a sensitizer geometry that reduces stochastic variation by 4x while maintaining the deprotection kinetics needed for throughput. It just asked me if I want it to generate the synthesis pathway. I said yes. It’s writing the reaction sequence. Guys I’m fucking scared…
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This is insane. Truly the end times.
Deedy@deedydas
Claude Mythos just obliterated every single benchmark in AI. I can't believe what I'm reading.
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@rfhirschfeld 55% of all fert applied comes from rocks, no one is gonna run out
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We'll wish we hadn't put 150+ million acres into producing low-value, generic industrial inputs for export into a global commodity market only tangentially about food production—surrendering our local food system to the point where few even remember how to grow food.
Stop the Forever Wars@DoctorFishbones
When the food crisis hits, we are going to wish we built fewer data centers on productive farmland
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if we do a 1y waiver of RFS minimums in addition to summer E15 then we can have cheaper gasoline in the summer and a combination of less expensive corn in the winter and less demand for nitrogen fertilizer in the summer due to crop substitution.
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i think if you are going to have an opinion about fertilizer prices and world food supply you cant do it without acknowledging that RFS minimums cause us to divert 35-40% of corn (or, more importantly, anything else that could have been planted there) to ethanol production
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@crc8 @offallmarkets yup. if we’re worried about worldwide famine as the fertilizer doomers keep insisting, soybeans get us more kcals and sorghum gets us more efficient human food and still a chunk of animal feed or ethanol feedstock in fields that were scheduled for rotation into corn from pulses
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@offallmarkets @GRoditiD Pulses. DDGS as a co-produt was, is, and will be in the grains.
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@Skudd37201 @OilandGibbs It’s important I feel good about my Amazon order
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Attempting to communicate:
1. 5.4Bgal D4 RVO for ‘26
2. No foreign RIN discount
3. ~70% reallocation
4. ‘26 RD equiv of 1.7 down to 1.5 in ‘27
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@OilandGibbs RFS = fuel export subsidy + foreign feedstock program, Prof Steve Irwin taught me this.
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