Raphael Leiteritz

As pinned recommendation, I think some of the best current knowledge is in the essays by Paul Graham paulgraham.com/articles.html and then the Almanack of Naval Ravikant navalmanack.com. If you study those, it will change your life.

The only 4 jobs that will remain at tech companies. Credits: @yrechtman

How I frame the current Iran op: A) this is about China - it’s cheaper to demonstrate to Xi that the day after a TW invasion his economy will be choked off from energy vs losing American lives protecting the island B) there was Gulf state buy in - specifically Saudi and UAE. This included providing capital to backstop USD assets which are trumps Achilles heel C) the objective is to have control of Hormuz at the end of this - specifically veto power that doesn’t just require a parked carrier which in a conflict China can lob a thousand missiles at. You need land-based American controlled assets there permanently. Either actual Americans or proxies via Israeli or Saudi forces. D) this is not going to be Iraq or Afghanistan - there is a wide spectrum between full regime change and nation building vs small contingents of special forces taking modest strategic points on the strait and carpet bombing everything close enough to put those troops at risk E) regime change isn’t a certainty but higher likelihood than consensus - I’d put it now at 50/50. Again this assumes no boots on ground in Tehran. “Experts” saying this is impossible lack imagination and understanding of how technology has shifted over the last two decades. F) this is also political theatre - both for the American people who lost the appetite for forever wars and who need to fully internalize that Europeans are worthless as allies in their current form as well as the Europeans themselves who need to be reminded how much pain a hostile America can inflict on them if they decide China is their preferred option G) Russia-Ukraine is closely connected to all of this. On one hand Trump can accel Russian production degradation by feeding UKR intelligence on Russian refinery capacity deeper inland while at the same time can completely pull back from supporting Ukraine as part of the aforementioned political theatre… “this is not our fight” - this is why Trump didn’t ask Ukraine for help on drones. It’s a card that can be played in multiple directions. H) analysts are not wrong when they freak out about global energy prices risk. Analysts are wrong to tie that back to midterms and American voters. Trump will use executive powers to manipulate prices at the pump if necessary. I) liquidity is decreasing globally just as it’s about to increase domestically. The U.S. via swap lines and control over institutions like the IMF is the liquidity provider of last resort. Kind of like when your insurance provider starts setting Forrest fires in your neighborhood and then immediately jacks up the premiums you have to pay to protect your house. J) remove the words “fair” and “moral” from your vocabulary. We are firmly in a world of realpolitik and Americas don’t give a flying fuck if the rest of the world burns. Hegemony or bust. K) there is a dual benefit of this war being an advertisement of US military prowess and a weakening of the veneer that China has closed the gap with the US systems. This impacts how countries will act in the coming days and which sphere they opt in to. L) trumps tolerance for dead American soldiers is higher than you think. Trumps tolerance for lower stocks is higher than you think. Doesn’t mean he won’t take steps to mitigate both. You don’t fight for hegemony without being certain you can handle punches to the face. M) terror attacks on the US will be the final step for Iran before regime change. It’s higher prob than consensus thinks but it’s also not a certainty because Americans are bloodthirsty when the homeland is touched and it’s a door you can’t walk back out of. European & UAE terror attacks likely come first. N) this operation has gone better than any reasonable analyst would have predicted. Panicans are starting from the premise that every person in Washington is retarded and Trump walked into a trap with the assumption that not a single barrel of oil would be lost or soldier scratched. Retardation 🫡

This is one of the most important educational images ever created about why we need Bitcoin. I like to remind the timeline every so often as it's a phenomenal piece of work that explains the issue of monetary debasement so succinctly. Broken money leads to a broken world.

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@TDrygala @SebTillmann super interessant, danke

Ich liebe den Wissenschaftsblog von @SebTillmann. Jeder Artikel ist ein Erkenntnisgewinn. Gerade wieder der letzte zur Linkslastigkeit der Sozialwissenschaften: open.substack.com/pub/nullhypoth…

@pmoe @iPaulLee and btw, I always felt the "tiny" lens of tiny.vc is fantastic in that regard. Catchy, and controversial -> good fit for some LPs.

@iPaulLee Hey Paul, I love these insights. They would be awesome as an article or blog post, much harder to follow in tweet form (and even harder in real life)...

Hard truth: Most emerging managers are actually very hard to back. 🧵

made my computer dramatically play BBC news music before every meeting

Instead of The Population Bomb and the Age of Scarcity - all this bullshit from the Club of Rome from the beginning of the 70s onwards, we ended up with the Democraphic Decline Bomb and the Age of Abundance only 50 years later. Go figure!

I told the nurse I was bitten by a wolf "Where?" she asked "No. Regular"

@PrefEquityPeter soo good

Me after 9 overpriced Guinness at the local Irish pub

@levelsio Goosebumps. Every. Single. Time.

I made a trailer for the future of humanity (e/acc)

You could have had this speech on existential importance of nuclear energy four years ago. Only when reality punches the EU hard in the face, there is U-turn in the energy policies. It‘s never conviction based on Strategy. You went from AI Act to AI First and thus, now nuclear.

@christianmiele Ist leider so. Systemischer Kipppunkt überschritten.

Es tut mir immer wieder in der Seele weh: Es gibt mittlerweile so wenige Nettosteuerzahler in Deutschland, dass die „große“ Politik diese Leute de facto niemals als Kernzielgruppe erfassen kann und wird. Jene Wählergruppen wiederum, die von Umverteilung profitieren, sind zahlenmäßig hochgradig attraktiv. Tja.

A “computer” used to be a job title. Then a computer became a thing humans used. Now a computer is becoming a thing computers use.

@Saul_Sadka just wow. thanks for sharing

The Economist, in its “fighting back the tears” obituary for Khamenei, salivates with true depravity over Trump’s future death in grisly, if ecstatic, terms: “...when Mr. Trump’s body was ashes, eaten by worms and ants.” It makes the Washington Post and its infamous “Austere Islamic Scholar” obituary for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi seem very quaint indeed. But I read the whole thing so you don’t have to. The key takeaways: 1. The USA is the Great Satan—no scare quotes. 2. For readers who don’t know what “Israel” is, the Economist helpfully translates it in parentheses as “the little Satan.” 3. Khamenei, otherwise known as “God’s Dictator,” had “divine right on his side” and had “countless reasons to hate the West,” which is an America-led “phalanx of morally corrupt countries.” 4. Khamenei was a sainted and humble man, dragged to power against his will, selfless and “heroically flexible” and unassailable—a “humble cleric from Mashhad who inherited the earth.” 5. Honourable in life, but perfect in death: what could be sweeter than delicious martyrdom? What could be “more deserving of paradise-to-come than to drink the pure draught of a martyr’s end”?! 6. According to the Economist, “Freedom, human rights, dress codes for women” are “tiresome Western tropes.” Yes, really. 7. All his troubles were economic: he was tormented by the West and by foreign enemies. All the crimes he ordered—beatings, killings, and so on—were, naturally, merely “a response” to those Western crimes. 8. He “rules by divine authority,” and “his tongue could channel God.” 9. He was just a ”mild-mannered cleric” gazed benignly from billboards and was a great teacher of forgiveness”. We have now surely reached the apogee of the decay of the legacy media in the West. Surely it can't sink lower than this?

@Raphfel @SantiagoAuFund @TheMichaelEvery @chigrl @anasalhajji @amlivemon @JavierBlas @ctindale @zriboua thanks!

For those who are interested, this war was a great occasion to separate insightful analysis from click-bait. Here are a few accounts who imho have been ahead of the curve: @SantiagoAuFund @TheMichaelEvery @chigrl @anasalhajji @amlivemon @JavierBlas @ctindale @zriboua

Europe suddenly discovers economic statecraft, pushing for industry to rise from 14% to 20% of its GDP, just as its lack of secure energy supplies becomes painfully obvious again.

when the whole team is on claude code