Raf Recavarren
61 posts



We don't need to panic, but we need to get serious. I wish people would stop referencing metaculus. It's just a random survey platform without any mechanism to filter people w/ authority from randos on the internet. And there aren't enough votes in there for the results to be meaningful anyway. (@dallairedemers and I single-handedly moved the timeline down a few months back with our votes) Here's what we know to be fact: 1) Quantum computers at sufficient scale will break crypto at the most fundamental level imaginable.. 2) Experts like Scott (who advises the EF and has spent his whole career in this field) are striking a different tone about the timeline than ever before. 3) Resource estimates for running Shor's Algorithm have dropped by 20x over the course of this year, reflecting progress in error correction kicked off a year ago by Google's Willow Chip: arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917 (this doesn't even account for the 10x improvement of LDPC codes over surface codes)

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