Sayerszy

Blanche: "There's a lot of things we can be doing, like voter ID. Every time you walk into a restaurant you have to show ID. How about you have to show your idea to vote? That's not anything that's crazy."

BUYING THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW IS A BAD IDEA Here is Paul Tudor Jones's explanation: The US stock market is now 252% of GDP. In 1929, the peak was 65%. In 1987, it was 90%. In 2000, it was 170%. We have never been here before. Bear markets since 1970 have averaged a return to 25-30 year P/E norms roughly every 10 years. A 30-35% market decline from here would erase wealth equal to 89% of US GDP. Then the cascade begins. 10% of all federal tax revenue comes from capital gains. A serious bear market takes that to near zero. This is what being "over-equitized as a country" actually means. Private equity was 7% of institutional portfolios going into 2007-2008. It is now 16%. Real estate allocations are up. Infrastructure is up. Institutional money is far more illiquid today than it was going into the financial crisis. Someone recently asked: if you were investing for 20 years, what would you do? The standard answer is buy the S&P 500 and close your eyes. Here is the problem. When you buy the S&P at a P/E of 22, history shows 10-year forward returns are negative. The S&P 500 is a great long-term investment across 100 years. But that average includes decades when the P/E was 6, 7, or 8. One-third of what it is today. "Valuation matters a lot. The stock market's really high. It's going to be really hard to make money from here."