Sebastian Levi

Carbon taxes often provoke public opposition. But what exactly drives their distinctive unpopularity? Using a machine learning method, my new ER&SS publication provides some new answers: sciencedirect.com/science/articl… See THREAD for main results 1/n

As my friend @mosessutton89 points out and shared this slide from an ERCOT deck. -The headline shouldn’t be: “8 GW lost / delayed / under review” -The headline should be: “~80%+ of Batch Zero load cleared as highly ready” Implication: ERCOT just validated that most of the queued load is real, mature, and system-relevant — not speculative!

Claude Code is the Inflection Point, What It Is, How We Use It, Industry Repercussions, Microsoft's Dilemma, Why Anthropic Is Winning. newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/claude-code-…

The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.

Cost of software development continues to rapidly approach zero

Europe isn't losing the race for next-generation combat aircraft because it's poor or incompetent but because of ego, paranoia, and national pride. European defence is being crippled from the inside by allies who refuse to share power, technology, or trust. Both flagship sixth-generation fighter programs are stuck in the same swamp. In the GCAP project, Italy openly accuses the UK of hoarding critical know-how. In FCAS, France, Germany, and Spain are so busy fighting over control and intellectual property that they're effectively designing parallel aircraft under the same label. That's not cooperation, that's sabotage. Europe has the money, the engineers, and the strategic urgency. What it lacks is the political maturity to act like a single power. If this continues, Europe won't just fall behind, it will lock itself into long-term dependence on foreign aircraft, surrendering both military autonomy and technological leadership.

Great work from the FT's John Burn-Murdoch ft.com/content/b47485…

Weird that they would put the 11th airborne on alert for Minnesota considering they are the cold weather specialists that we would be using to invade Greenland.

In response to the new Trump tariffs on Europe--if they stay. Most countermeasures the EU has considered are costly for the US, but also costly for the EU... Be it export restrictions on pharmaceuticals, higher digital taxes on non resident firms, etc. They should definitely be considered, but one must realize that they would involve some pain. One measure I can think of however, which could be announced now and implemented relatively quickly, and would be good for the EU, is the creation of a deep eurobond market, reducing dollar dominance. shorturl.at/341aB It can be done, at little political cost, with benefits for the EU, and costs for the US. (It is worth doing anyway, but announcing it now would show that Europe has some cards to play and is willing to play them)

DOE is out with a new market report on geothermal that highlights huge momentum for the sector. Check out these rapidly declining costs. EGS is on a course to very soon be below grid parity costs on a wide scale. @ENERGY

Das aktuelle Bekennerschreiben zum Berliner Stromausfall wirft Fragen auf. Der Sprachstil wirkt hölzern, die Grammatik untypisch. Eine KI-gestützte Textanalyse deckt nun die wahre Herkunft auf. Spoiler: Es ist wohl kaum „Made in Germany“. Ein Thread. 🧵 1/25

Battery equipment prices fell by 40% in 2024 and are on track for another sharp fall in 2025. It now costs $125 per kWh to import, build and connect utility-scale storage projects outside China and the US 🔋 ember-energy.org/latest-insight…

NEW: Progressives have a birth rate problem For all the talk of a general fall in births, the drop is overwhelmingly driven by people on the left having fewer kids. By ceding the topic of family and children to the right, progressives risk ushering in a more conservative world.

What a chart.

Also ich plädiere für eine #Restaurantpreisbremse. Die Gerichte sind oft vergleichbar. Wir machen jetzt eine Liste mit preisbildenden Merkmalen von Restaurants und Speisen, und dann darf man keine Preise mehr nehmen, die über dem Ortsüblichen liegen. 🧵 sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/mue…

@HSchaeferIW Mittagessen ist auch Infrastruktur.

Diese Koalitionspapiere sind ja wirklich der Knaller. Die SPD will kostenloses Mittagessen. 🤯

Man kann ja gerne über Sinn des Elterngeldes diskutieren. Aber fände ich in der Kombination schon dreist von den Boomern: Sich selber Rente sichern und mittels Schulden auf Rücken der jüngeren Generation sogar ausbauen. Und dann obendrauf den U40 noch das Elterngeld streichen.

I dont know if there is a kill switch in the F35’s or not. We obviously can not take your word for it. As one of the decision makers behind Denmark’s purchase of F35’s, I regret it. The USA can certainly disable the planes by simple stopping the supply of spare parts. They want to strengthen Russia and weaken Europa and are showing that they are willing to do tremendous damage to peaceful and loyal allies like Canada just because they insist on existing as a country. I can easily imagine a situation where the USA will demand Greenland from Denmark and will threaten to deactivate our weapons and let Russia attack us when we refuse (which we will even in that situation). Therefore, buying American weapons is a security risk that we can not run. We will make enormous investments in air defence, fighter jets, artillery and other weapons in the coming years, and we must avoid American weapons if at all possible. I encourage our allies and friends to do the same.

Germany should definitely avoid Chinese wind projects, because China could use the project not only as part of hybrid warfare and espionage but also as a means of economic pressure. We should also stop being naive when it comes to China. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energ…

A German Gen Zer said in an FT interview that he’d never join the military, not even in the face of an invasion, because he’d “rather be occupied than dead.” You hear this mentality in Germany often, especially among youth. What I find most striking about this is the lack of any motivation to, or even awareness of the need to, protect their loved ones or others in society who are unable to protect themselves: children, the elderly, the sick. With the Russians at the proverbial gates of their towns and cities, ready to torture, rape, and butcher their family and neighbors, would these young people truly rather “be occupied” than risk their lives to protect their own from this horror? If the answer is yes, then the German security crisis will never end no matter how many billions we spend. More than munitions in its stores, Germany is missing courage in its citizens. Such as we are today, without the strength and courage of our neighbors and allies, faced with an invasion we would fall in a weekend.

Erste Details sickern durch: Grünen haben Zusätzlichkeit von Investitionen und 100 Mrd für Klima- und Transformationsfonds rausverhandelt.