William Thomson

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William Thomson

William Thomson

@thomson1824

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Katılım Mayıs 2017
562 Takip Edilen176 Takipçiler
William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@TSLAFanMtl Do you think the oil market disruption drives energy installations in addition to EV adoption?
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James Cat
James Cat@TSLAFanMtl·
Tesla Energy with its lowest quarterly print since Q3 of 2024. Surprising given the new factory operating in Shanghai. However, as you can see, installations can be quite choppy so we would expect a really big bounce in installations next quarter.
James Cat tweet media
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
Bitcoin rallying since the morning makes it look like a risk-on asset than anything else.
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Brandon 🌎☮️🚗⚡️🔋
Brandon 🌎☮️🚗⚡️🔋@brandonee916·
Am I the only one who Tesla wipers in Auto mode go full speed all the time? I haven’t been able to use Auto for over a year now.
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@garyblack00 I don't disagree, Gary, but none of that matters - it's what Elon wants, and the shareholders will probably give it to him.
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Liam Donovan
Liam Donovan@LPDonovan·
@MikeMitchNH Or c) shut up and focus on the work you can do with the power you have
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Liam Donovan
Liam Donovan@LPDonovan·
There's a self-selectivity to the sorts of members that like to gossip with beltway media, but still pathetic. Nobody made you run; nobody is making you run again. If you don't like what's happening, suck it up or do something about it.
Jake Sherman@JakeSherman

since this ran this morning -- 4 hours ago? -- ive gotten countless text messages from House Republicans agreeing with this sentiment. and saying why the hell should we stay in congress if all we're going to do is vote on censures and be a potted plant.

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TheElksMan
TheElksMan@elks_man·
@conorsen Obvious to everyone now that the threshold on anything a party actually wants to do is 50 votes. Only conclusion to be drawn is opening the government is not something they want to do.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
“We need to respect the filibuster on a CR but we’ll use reconciliation to address healthcare” doesn’t even pass muster with me, let alone normal voters who don’t follow any of this stuff.
Andrew Desiderio@AndrewDesiderio

Using budget reconciliation would allow Republicans to address premium hikes stemming from expiring Obamacare subsidies without requiring Democratic votes. Meeting included RonJohn who has long called for additional reconciliation bills

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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@conorsen It totally is. As someone who deals with statute on a regular basis, LLMs consistently get the content of existing law wrong as well. They can still be helpful tools for digging up information, but verification is a must.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
Finding readily available information and then doing analysis/making connections is the core of what I do, seems like LLM’s should be able to help here a lot but the accuracy continues to feel inconsistent.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
I feel like “Give me the in-conference records of all the SEC football teams from 2010-24” is something an LLM should be able to do easily, the information is all on Wikipedia/the web, but I continue to have no confidence they’d be able to do it accurately every time.
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@RyanRadia Ryan, do you have data on size of average home across these time frames? And housing units per capita?
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Ryan Radia
Ryan Radia@RyanRadia·
Homeownership rate by decade of birth by current age (United States)
Ryan Radia tweet media
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@JPWeiland Count me as another person that appreciates your level-headed analysis. Many thanks.
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JWeiland
JWeiland@JPWeiland·
I'm not a fear monger, and I'm not a minimizer. I just read the data to the best of my ability and collaborate with some of the top people in the field. I try to stay grounded and unbiased, and am not swayed by bullying from either extreme.
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JWeiland
JWeiland@JPWeiland·
Awe, I always really appreciate these kinds of responses. I'm glad to help (for free) and I'll continue doing what I'm doing as long as people find value in it
JWeiland tweet media
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@JPWeiland @BoldsHeidi I think conspiracy theories are also used as a tool to reduce one's agency in one's own circumstances. i.e., if my life turned out poorly, it's not necessarily my fault, because of "xyz". There can be a certain comfort in that.
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JWeiland
JWeiland@JPWeiland·
@BoldsHeidi Those all require thought, effort, and critical thinking. It's much easier to say the government etc moves the continents for xyz nefarious reasons.
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JWeiland
JWeiland@JPWeiland·
Many simple-minded people love conspiracy theories, as it makes them "feel" smarter than those who are actually intelligent. They think they know important things all the smart people don't. It's a coping mechanism.. Napoleon syndrome of the mind.
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@USA_Polling "It is not possible to give every alleged criminal a trial, because to do so would take, without exaggeration, years."
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William Thomson
William Thomson@thomson1824·
@2buckchucky @FreightAlley Uhh, tariffs need to be assessed on imports to raise revenue. What happens when the imports crater, as they are now? Your revenue goes up in smoke.
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Charlie S
Charlie S@2buckchucky·
Craig, not saying this will materialize, but a tax rate of 0% from 0-$150k of US earners is roughly equivalent to an additional 50% tariffs on China and 10% on the rest of the world. At least at 2024 import levels. Those tariff levels no raise about $600b which offsets the federal income taxes on most Americans.
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Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️@FreightAlley·
In speaking with nine large importers this week, everyone expected tariffs and anticipated that Chinese goods would bear the brunt of them. The typical range for China was 10-35%. Only one had 50 %+ tariff forecasts on Chinese imports. Everyone said that tariffs at their forecasted levels would have been painful, but wouldn't have cratered their operations.
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Meet Kevin
Meet Kevin@realMeetKevin·
I feel like the country I grew up to love, respect, and honor is being gutted.
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cjewLA
cjewLA@CjewLa·
@conorsen What is the policy response? Removal of Trump tariff powers?
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
I'm trying to think of a time when markets were stressed in such a way that called out for a specific response by policymakers, where policymakers chose not to do the response, and where it was fine. Low n exercise obviously.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
@nstrzo The analogy doesn't quite work but ultimately it's capital markets.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
I really think the Biden debate is a better analogy in that anyone not on the team immediately saw how nuts it was but people inside the tent were shell-shocked and defensive, trying not to acknowledge what they just saw or rationalizing it away.
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital

This week didn’t feel like ‘08. Obvious to many, but lots of people in the market now who weren’t then! Movies don’t really capture the feeling - not the visceral part. But I think reading the diary entries of real people panicking does, pretty well

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