Toddy

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Toddy

Toddy

@toddycapital

trading, investment, crypto, tech, and economics. lover of west coast market hours. not financial advice | every post & re-post is of my personal opinion.

Katılım Mayıs 2020
429 Takip Edilen111 Takipçiler
Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
Available AI/HPC from BTC miners infrastructure ready to go on day one should be looked at as a commodity given 1. AI race 2. Time, cost, commitment of developing your own infra 3. Energy scarcity, i.e ERCOT’s new ‘26 guidelines, state level pushback over energy concerns, etc.
Mike Alfred@mikealfred

KBW analyst Stephen Glagola put out a note this morning estimating that CIFR’s new hyperscaler lease at Stingray was priced 15% above the AWS/Black Pearl lease signed just months earlier. The demand is INSANE.

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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@Param_eth Don’t think $CRCL thought their decision to not freeze that USDC a few weeks ago would look so good so soon after all that outcry for not freezing it.
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
Ripple advertising $XRP heavy in Vegas during the largest bitcoin conference in the world just seems counterproductive to me imo.
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Crypto Headlines
Crypto Headlines@CryptoHe4dlines·
Western Union plans to launch its own stablecoin, USDPT, on the $SOL Solana network in May, positioning it as an alternative to the SWIFT system. The company also intends to introduce a Digital Asset Network for integrating crypto wallets and release a USD Stable Card. theblock.co/post/398905/we…
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
Great day at the first ever annual Bitcoin Investor Day. Valuable insights from UTXO, VanEck, MicroStrategy, and the rest of the speakers. Been following @matthew_sigel since I saw him speak in El Salvador two years ago - without a doubt, a leader in Bitcoin and digital asset research. Excited for what’s to come this week @ Bitcoin 2026.
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@MNupdate What exposure did they have? Did they put out a letter?
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CIO of The North
CIO of The North@MNupdate·
AQR L/S tax loss harvesting caught in the Avis short squeeze is wild. Probably not what they signed up for. Getting the full Porsche/VW experience.
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@epictrades1 Do you have the note or name of analyst that initiated coverage?
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The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince
$QBTS Northland initiated coverage of D-Wave Quantum with a Market Perform rating and $22 price target. $QUBT Northland initiated coverage of Quantum Computing with an Outperform rating and $20 price target. $IONQ IonQ initiated with an Outperform at Northland PT $55 $RGTI Rigetti Computing initiated with a Market Perform at Northland
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@TMathSports You should get into crypto and issue a token.
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Taylor Mathis
Taylor Mathis@TMathSports·
So I’ve quietly been trying to build a portfolio and learn about the stock market over the last few months, it’s so fun and I’m a little addicted
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@mtndrew Solid perspective - times like this is when my timeline needs a bit of a sanity check.
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mtn drew
mtn drew@mtndrew·
everyone loves to show the chart of HIP-3 OI growth no one ever shows the chart of HIP-3 volume or revenue HYPE might be at ATHs right now if this HIP-3 adoption was actually translating into revenue, but it's not Three things to consider imo: - It seems that much of the HIP-3 volume growth has come at the expense of crypto perps volume - Revenue is generated from fees on volume, not OI - I believe much of the volume on HIP-3 would sustain even if they stopped subsidizing it i remain bullish and long HYPE but in moderate size. i think our comrades are letting their excitement over tradfi asset perps adoption get the best of them due to a severe lack of any other exciting investments in crypto. Hyperliquid is so impressive compared to every other crypto product that i think it leads people to overestimate growth it's growth a bit. if/when the HIP-3 markets calm back down again, i think people will begin to look at the data more closely and critically. let's hope the data has become much more impressive by the time that happens!
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Colossus
Colossus@colossusmag·
This is the story of Hyperliquid, the most profitable startup per employee on earth, told from a guarded office in Singapore. Last year, its team of 11 generated $900 million in profit. It's 3 years old, has never taken a dollar of venture capital, and is beginning to change how century-old markets work. Its founder, Jeffrey Yan (@chameleon_jeff), had never taken a physics class when he picked up a textbook at 16. Two years later, he won gold at the International Physics Olympiad. In 2019, he started trading with $10,000 from a living room in Puerto Rico—working off a television because he didn't own a monitor. Within 3 years, he was running one of the largest anonymous crypto trading firms. Then he shut it down. Yan was rich and free, but he had spent years inside crypto, watching it betray itself. Bitcoin's central premise was decentralization. Yet the biggest exchanges were centralized. Crypto kept reintroducing the dependence on trust it was built to eliminate. He set out to create what should have existed. Hyperliquid is a blockchain with a trading exchange on top, and anyone can build on it. Yan's vision is to house all of finance. In 3 years, it has done over $4 trillion in volume. And in the past few months, it has begun to outgrow crypto. Markets for oil, silver, and the S&P 500 now trade on Hyperliquid around the clock, weekends included, and are growing roughly 40% week on week. When the US and Israel bombed Iran on a Saturday in February, Hyperliquid was the venue traders turned to. Hyperliquid's success has cost Yan his freedom. He works out of a secret office in Singapore and cannot travel without two bodyguards. Even the team's housekeeper doesn't know what they do. In January, @domcooke spent a week at their office. Read his profile on Yan and @HyperliquidX below.
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
Sent out 1099-DA’s past IRS deadline, currently being extorted by a criminal group yet IPO delayed because of current crypto market landscape. Right.
Nick Percoco@c7five

Kraken Security Update We are currently being extorted by a criminal group threatening to release videos of our internal systems with client data shown if we do not comply with their demands. It’s important to start with the most important points: our systems were never breached; funds were never at risk; we will not pay these criminals; we will not ever negotiate with bad actors. Kraken identified and shut down two instances of inappropriate access to limited client support data. In February 2025, we received a tip from a trusted source regarding a video shared on a criminal forum that appeared to show access to our client support systems. We immediately launched an investigation and quickly identified the individual involved as a member of our support team. Their access was revoked immediately, a full investigation was conducted, additional security controls were put in place and a limited number of affected clients were notified. Since then, we have been collaborating with industry partners and law enforcement to investigate and disrupt insider recruitment efforts targeting not only crypto companies, but also gaming and telecommunications organizations. More recently, we received another tip, along with a new video showing similar activity. We quickly identified the individual involved and terminated their access. As before, we acted immediately to revoke access, conduct a full investigation, and notify the small number of affected clients. Across both incidents, only a very small number of client accounts were potentially viewed - approximately 2,000 in total (0.02% of clients). Shortly after access was terminated, we began receiving extortion demands. The criminals threatened to distribute materials from both the February 2025 incident and the recent incident to media outlets and on social media if we did not comply. We will not pay these criminals. Based on intelligence gathered across both incidents, along with extensive ongoing analysis, we believe there is sufficient evidence to support the identification and arrest of those responsible. We are actively working with federal law enforcement across multiple jurisdictions to pursue all individuals involved and bring them to justice. Due to the ongoing investigation, we cannot share additional details at this time. However, anyone with relevant information is encouraged to contact us directly. The security of our clients is our highest priority, and we remain fully committed to combating the growing global threat of insider recruitment and constantly enhancing our security practices to combat new threats. Note: If you are a client potentially affected by this, you've already been notified.

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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
I upgraded to premium+ but still no access to x pro (tweetdeck) pls help @X @premium
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@notyetadegen @fengtality @KalshiResearch That’d be my guess too - otherwise you would buy through the entire order book and still be partially filled in most of the markets I’ve seen, even the more liquid ones.
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old school degen
old school degen@notyetadegen·
@fengtality @KalshiResearch It’s gotta be this, right? Just a bilateral swap or a swap with some middle men to arrange, hold collateral or clear? (I don’t know how Kalshi is set up; but it’s gotta just be bilateral or a one-off book build)
old school degen@notyetadegen

@EventWavesIO @davidyin44 @KalshiResearch @mansourtarek_ Yeah it’s gotta be something like that. What’s interesting is that this isn’t a “market” at all. It’s just a bilateral swap with a counterparty or with a “bank” that serves as an arranger - so it doesn’t really have anything to do with prediction markets. GS can do this tomorrow

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Kalshi Research
Kalshi Research@KalshiResearch·
Kalshi founder on institutional adoption: "Block trades are already live on the platform...Right now a trade that we're seeing a lot is in the $20-30 million range for payroll hedging"
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@Francis37879301 @santiagoroel That’s what I thought but when you look at why people receive payments through WU in 3rd world countries - internet & access to wallets might not be an option. Unsure when that will change.
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FmDinis73
FmDinis73@Francis37879301·
@santiagoroel How long before people feel comfortable using wallets provided by Layer Ones to bypass Middlemen like Western Union? Basically like what Jed McCaled said about a Global Venmo?
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Santiago R Santos
Santiago R Santos@santiagoroel·
I started looking at Western Union because I thought stablecoins would kill it. Then I realized WU is better positioned than almost anyone to leverage them. Brand, distribution, 200+ countries, $923M in EBITDA. The key risk was management. They had been skeptical of stablecoins. I placed the bet in November. Since then WU has not only outperformed Solana but the broader market: WU +2.14% / SPX -6.76% / Nasdaq -11.66% / SOL -56.15% WU is a $2.8B market cap business trading at 6x earnings with a 10% dividend yield. Remitly trades at 50x on a 2.3% operating margin. Wise at 23x. The discount exists because WU revenue is declining 3.8% while both are growing 25%+. I am not fighting that. But at 6x earnings you are paying for zero recovery, zero tech adoption, zero optionality. That is the margin of safety. I was at the @blockworksDAS this week. The WU CEO was on the same stage. Very different energy from the one I had been following. Clear on the stablecoin strategy, talking about flipping negative float into positive float. They have since announced USDPT, their own stablecoin on Solana. For a 175-year-old company to go from skepticism to launching on Solana in under a year is a meaningful shift. Of course, there is plenty of execution risk. The bear case was always that they would not act. They are acting - and that alone warrants a repricing. The math I ran back in November when I placed the bet was: lose ~20-30%, cushioned by $500M in net income and a 10% dividend. Re-rate to Wise multiples and it is 4 to 5x. I am not betting on convergence. I am betting the market prices zero probability of it, and I will get paid for getting a free option. WU is part of a broader thesis that led me to start @inversion_cap: acquiring businesses with distribution at attractive prices. There is a lot of embedded optionality in those businesses. Not all will act in time. Some will die. But the ones that do will meaningfully outperform, and those gains will more than outweigh the losses. You reduce that risk meaningfully when you control that business. The greatest beneficiaries of cost-reducing technology like AI and crypto are not the startups building it. They are the incumbents with distribution that adopt it. WU is one of many. Full piece on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/obviously/… @HadickM double or nothing? Market settles November 1, 2026. DISCL: Long WU. Long SOL. NFA.
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@santiagoroel Outside of getting yield on reserves - how will they monetize moving to a stablecoin platform? Are they looking to charge customers fee’s per transaction done through WU?
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Toddy
Toddy@toddycapital·
@aayushtrades Ah, should have known that but my yahoo screen has been white for 20 years lol
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Aayush Shah
Aayush Shah@aayushtrades·
$FIGR for reference why 25 literally made no sense and why i dumped basically my whole net worth in this stock. analysts are saying $1 in GAAP EPS this year. does 25x this year PE make any sense when the company is growing 100% YoY. now add in the fact that analysts are ALWAYS behind the curve.
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