Haizhou Yin

@AndersReiche What are your main reasons $path will never close above $20? Is it RPA is dying or $path loses out to competitors like Microsoft in agentic automation?

Prediction: $PATH & $FVRR will never close above $20 again.

@StonkChris Curious about the similarities with HOOD? Could you explain why looking like HOOD 2.0?

$LMND is such a beast. Should have went all in on this thing back in the $30s. Looks like $HOOD 2.0.

@ShadyJosh5 @mikeeisenberg Could you elaborate on the same blueprint?

@mikeeisenberg Same - for some time now been calling out Amazon as the closest example we can find of what Lemonade is going. Different industry, same blueprint.

As I have said before: $LMND is AI cycle's equivalent to $AMZN in dotcom era.

@KabraxFX @BagelC47 @andycyau Please help me understand why $ROOT revenue grows a lot even though its number of policies in force doesn’t grow much.

@BagelC47 @andycyau These charts below say otherwise, and is there any point after Q1 2023 in your own PIF chart that they did not have YoY growth? Quality over quantity, dude. You can keep saying $ROOT has no growth, or you can just miss out and say it again later when they keep gaining YoY. 🤦‍♂️

$LMND $ROOT 🤔 - this doesn't tell the entire story, but do you know what Root's LTV/CAC or CAC/IFP conversion is? No, you don't, because it sucks, so they hide it from you. Good luck.

@mattscottcap @FIREDUpWealth You mentioned it is one of the only “stocks” which can 100x. Curious about what are the other stocks in the “stocks”?

@FIREDUpWealth Literally one of the only stocks in the market right now that people say can 100x and isn’t just some bs hyperbolic statement pumping their bags

Do you own Lemonade $LMND stock? What is your bull thesis?

@caiziboshi @grok true?

工信部把特斯拉FSD国内版免费体验一月的活动叫停，据说遥遥领先找家长了！ 特斯拉FSD应该是有核心技术！

@ShadyJosh5 Link please, thanks

Have shared link where possible, for some your DMs are not open or for some reason the button to message you is not there, if you haven't had a link and want it please find a way to DM or otherwise let me know

@erchenlu1 有道理。我也想了想背后的原因： 投资：找出那些公司拥有很好的长期发展（远景），然后时不时验证公司是否走在正确的路上。基本是在思考层面，主要时间花在比较深度的思考上 商业能力：主要时间花在实现公司远景的实操层面，需要处理很多具体事物，需要速度快，深度思考少

最近认真仔细思考了下身边认识的所有投资和商业赚钱能力厉害的人。 发现了一个特点。 投资能力和经商/商业能力很难并存。 人的注意力和精力，以及优势实际上很难跨域。 投资最厉害的人，一般经商/商业才能会打折扣。 经商/商业能力强的人，一般投资能力也会打折扣。 这两者似乎很难兼容。 因为投资能力（长期）的培养需要大量时间阅读，独处，分析，推理，以及耐心和等待。 而商业能力则需要大量的去实践，犯错，反馈，立即发现趋势，并立即行动布局。非常讲究速度和果断。

@JerryWeiAI I really like your approach, which gives clearer information in communication ( especially for someone with AI/ML background). There are many well defined AI/ML terms which are suitable to describe human activities ( training -> learning, inference -> apply knowledge, etc).

Recently, I've been leaning into using AI/research terms in everyday situations. 🤓 Some examples: ❌ Your doc was very long and I forgot most of it. ✅ Your doc exceeded my max context length. ❌ I remember running that experiment but now I can't find the logs. ✅ I might have hallucinated that experiment. ❌ Are you free to play some chess? ✅ Are you free to pair on chess? ❌ I'm not sure if I want to eat here, let me look at their menu first. ✅ Let me derisk this restaurant by looking at the menu. ❌ I'm having trouble understanding how to do this task. ✅ My neural network is too small for this task. So far, my friends still look at me funny when I bring out my AI vocab, but if I keep doing this, it'll definitely catch on someday. 🤡

@lawrenc821215 @liuren 同问,您能否举个例子？这样下次看到类似的错误，立马能识别出来！

@liuren 您可以举个例子吗，这样说太抽象

我读书最惨痛的教训是，读太多历史书，读太少哲学书。中了决定论的毒，少了假设概念演绎的训练。

@ilyasut I think the key is "done right", which implies something important was not handled properly before (e.g. it was previously unknown so that it was not considered & tackled on purpose). Being able to get "done right" is actually the results of a new "idea". There is a new "idea"!

Many believe that great AI advances must contain a new “idea”. But it is not so: many of AI’s greatest advances had the form “huh, turns out this familiar unimportant idea, when done right, is downright incredible”

@mike_d1213 具体到台积电，总体感觉他们很务实。 当年的High k metal gate在几个选择里都努力尝试，最后选了英特尔的方案。 这位蒋，我不了解。但看到他后来在武汉一个大忽悠公司做高管，后来说自己被骗了。

@mike_d1213 闻到了浓浓的“人定胜天”的鸡汤味。 他提到人的因素，使事物成功。而事实上,事物成功有多个因素，往往好些还是非人为因素。 在值得努力的方向上努力才是一个靠谱的角度，需要提防“鸡汤”。如何判断是“值得努力的方向”是人值得花不少力气的事物

【满意性原则和最优化原则】 我们都活在满意性原则里，却总是困在最优化原则中。 两个概念的提出，源于人类是有限理性，而非无限理性。 有限理性并非在有限信息内做出最优化决策，因为这其实也是一种无限理性。人类由于脑容量有限、算力有限、获取信息能力有限，所以才具有了有限理性的特质。

@mike_d1213 @guoqiang 特期待

@guoqiang 谈不上方法论哈哈，小打小闹，我把我自己的想法分享一个thread吧。

与朋友聊天，他说从我这边的很多思维模型上学到很多，因为我看过很多书。 我反驳了这个观点。姑且将我已有的一些小想法称为思维模型吧，我并不觉得这些来源于书籍，书只是一个获取信息的方式而已。如果把看书比作捞鱼，能捞到多少鱼取决于网，也就是信息筛选体系+过往实践经历。

@Svwang1 有道理！ 看一个现象有很多角度，每个人都是从自己的认知角度看事物。当ta 认为某个现象非常不合理，同时那现象长期存在，这其实是个巨大的信号：ta 的角度很可能没有抓住该现象的本质，也就是ta 看偏了！ 这时候是个扩展和提高自己认知的好机会，这可能会带来好些以前完全视而不见的机会

研究一个非常不合理的现象为什么能够长期存在, 比研究批判这个现象为什么不合理，更重要更有趣。 因为你一旦真正理解某个不合理现象为什么仍然长期存在，就可以举一反三，理解更多其它不合理现象为什么长期存在，然后就可能因势利导，发掘其中的巨大机会。

@Svwang1 是的，看问题需要从本质的角度。每个人都可以轻易有个角度，要特别避免被吃瓜群众的角度影响。 本质的角度对于和人相关的事物，一般是看出钱人的角度，或是客户的角度。

这不是问题的本质，关键要看未来的增长。以 Huntington library 的位置和财务支持的巨大网络，相信“流芳园”会持续迭代，越建越精致，名气越来越大。

@Svwang1 “理解他人视角”不太贴切，应该是：了解实际情况。 弱者必须了解实际情况,做出务实的决定和行动，因为没有资本可以折腾。 强者因为有积累，可以不管实际情况（不务实）,经得起折腾。

弱者必须理解他人的视角，否则可能迅速付出惨重代价。强者可以(暂时)忽略他人是如何思考的。

@Brave2049 能分享背后的理由和分析吗？根据什么看好？根据什么不认为人类文明级别创新？

@miguellromao @MissShabdo @david_perell It's not law/banking 's intention to waste talented people. The observed waste of talented people is just the byproduct of the imperfect society structure.

@miguellromao @MissShabdo @david_perell I think we should look at this from a different perspective: law and banking are structurely advantaged in the society, so can extract much more financial values from the society, so players in these fields are paid much better, so capable people want to get into these fields

Why do elite colleges pump students into the same five industries: law, medicine, tech, investing, and management consulting? For answers, let’s turn to the philosopher René Girard.