Amena Bakr’s OPEC mole (fan)

@DanielTNiles Brent spot closed > $141 @DanielTNiles . Remember, the prompt futures contract converges to spot at expiration.

Last wk, the 12% surge in WTI spot was offset by the 12 month futures contract dropping 6% and Brent -3%. As a result SPX/Nas/R2K/M7 were up 3.4%/4.4%/3.3%/5.1% while the S&P energy sector fell 5.3%. From a longer-term perspective, since the start of the Iran War at the end of February, WTI spot is now up 66% to $112, but the 12 month future contract is up only 11% to $70 (roughly where it was in early 2025) while Brent is up 50% to $109. This expectation of the future path of oil prices combined with tax refunds being up over 10% y/y explains much of why the S&P is down just 4% since the Iran War began. Looking forward, President Trump has said the war will be over in 2-3 weeks. Iran has also put out their terms to end the war. Though the bid-ask spread is wide but both sides are now talking. The Strait of Hormuz is the main sticking point. From a fundamental perspective as Q1 earnings season approaches, most economic data remains solid. As an example, the US March Nonfarm Payrolls released on Good Friday was strong despite all the concerns of AI leading to mass unemployment. NFP was +178K vs consensus of just 60K with the unemployment rate at 4.3% vs consensus of 4.4%. Clearly the rise in oil prices will have some negative economic impact with a lag if it stays high for a long period of time. But by the time we get into the heart of reporting season in the third week of April, according to President Trump’s most recent statements, the US should be done with the war. As a result, spot oil prices should be lower and forward looking guidance may not be as pressured. Then Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of rate cuts, should start as the new head of the Fed in mid-May. The recent decision by a federal judge that there was "essentially zero evidence" of a crime relating to the DOJ probe of Jerome Powell should clear the way for Warsh’s Senate confirmation. As for positioning, my thoughts remain roughly unchanged. Diversification is important. The R2K is up 2% YTD while the equal weighted S&P is up 1% vs the S&P down 4% and Mag7 down 12%. Even before the war with Iran, this type of position was outperforming. Through the end of February, the R2k was +6% with the equal weighted S&P +7% while the S&P was flat with the Mag7 down 7%. Asset heavy AI beneficiaries remain essential. U need to get MESI sectors (Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) which are up 13% YTD on average and were up 17% YTD before the war with Iran. And finally, I believe with the emergence of OpenClaw in 2026, Agentic AI has finally arrived driving a surge of token generation of 10-100x versus chat-based AI in 2025. $NVDA and $GOOGL remain my favorite ways to play agentic AI while the server microprocessor vendors are key new beneficiaries from the increase in orchestration needed. An example of this optimism is $INTC re-purchasing the 49% of its fab in Ireland for $14.2B last week using a combo of cash and $6.5B in debt that it sold roughly two years ago for $11.2B given its cash crunch. I hope everyone enjoyed the long holiday weekend and best of luck in the week ahead.

@sourceryy @a16z @pmarca Should we expect a lower fixed management fee for the next @a16z fund?

.@a16z Perennial CIO Michel Del Buon⁣ just called AUM fees "insane."⁣ ⁣ "You brought your car to get fixed and the mechanic says, 'That'll be 10 basis points of your balance sheet.'"⁣ ⁣ "We'd all react like—what are you talking about?"

Please consider Mr. Ghalibaf in your institutional investor vote this year in categories commodity research and portfolio strategy. x.com/mb_ghalibaf/st…

@calvinfroedge @Amena__Bakr is not just an oil analyst. She is the queen of the oil market and the modern day EF Hutton of oil. When she speaks, the industry listens.

She's not a money manager. She's an oil market analyst. Governments are not allowing price response from the market. So the shortages will be much worse than if every redneck with a hand auger was out there looking for oil to cash in.

@MarceloLima Plug in 30% margins like @GavinSBaker has been calling for, hit F9, and see what happens.

Math on $CRM from here ($200/share) is quite compelling: Currently trading at 13.1x TTM FCF. Assuming a 10% discount rate, market is pricing this for a perpetual growth rate of only 2.4%. Company guided to FY30 revenue of $63 bn and rule of 50, which is exactly what I had in my HIGH case model. This implies revenue CAGR of 11% and total margin expansion of 4.3 pp. Organic FCF will CAGR in the low to mid teens. $50 bn of buyback authorization: about 76% of that will actually dent the share count (the remainder will counter SBC). Still, the company can shrink share count nearly 7% per year for the next several years (assuming shares trade at the current multiple). From FY27-FY30 Salesforce should have $61 bn of free cash flows available to retire shares. Free cash flows per share will therefore CAGR in the low 20s. Assuming a flat multiple it's 124% upside in four years. What should the terminal multiple be? If we assume perpetual growth is just 3.5% then the multiple should re-rate to 15.4x. At 15.4x my 5-year IRR is 28% ($639 share price plus dividends). Side note: Salesforce has $59 bn of book equity. As it conducts its massive buyback this equity will shrink. Optical ROE will therefore skyrocket. It will screen well and should attract lots of value investors. Not investment advice.

@TheStalwart @5thrule Thanks for jinxing us @TheStalwart

Korean stocks have been up 33 of the last 40 days, per @5thrule, which according to him is better than any SPX 40 day run ever.

Why maintain a legacy system of record if the first step is having an agent ingest and structure the data anyway? When agents can continuously pull, reconcile, integrate and rebuild datasets directly from underlying systems, the SOR stops being the source of truth and becomes just another input.

@MikeFritzell I’m building like the ai-pilled people too but the doom narrative is expected and unfounded. These SOR’s are the fuel for AI right now

The Goldman Sachs list of AI winners & losers: Supposed winners: - Cloudflare - CrowdStrike - Palo Alto Networks - Oracle - Microsoft - Amazon - Alphabet - Nvidia - TSMC - Micron - Arista Networks - Palantir - Zoom - Vertiv - Eaton - NextEra Energy Supposed losers: - Monday.com - Salesforce - DocuSign - Accenture - Duolingo - Workday - SAP - Atlassian - UiPath - Cognizant - Gartner - SAP - Unity Software They seem to think that providers of physical hardware and infrastructure will be relative winners. Cyber security companies, too. Meanwhile, Goldman argues that if AI agents become the primary interface, traditional software becomes commoditised, simple passive data stores. And consulting/IT services names like Accenture will be hurt as AI compresses billable work hours.

We have a terrific piece out on Salesforce. I know that commerce, Tableau and marketing were weak and AgentForce can't yet make up for it, but it will. Marc Benioff talked about a huge buyback an he will fund it with debt. Look out above!

I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget deficit. The bill was introduced by Representatives Bill Huizenga (R) and Scott Peters (D) to reduce and maintain the federal budget deficit at or below 3% of GDP. While most responsible members of both parties don't agree on much, they agree on this, which is also urged by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and almost all knowledgeable investors, economists, and business leaders beyond them. Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent has long been a supporter of this path, publicly saying, “I would urge [President Trump] to make public his desire to get the deficit down to 3% by the end of his term.”   In my book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, I described the mechanics of how the United States will go broke unless it gets the budget deficit down to 3% of GDP, which I describe as my "3% 3-Part Solution." All leaders from both parties I spoke with in private agree. The only impediment is their fear of the political consequences of being in favor of raising taxes and cutting benefits if that is required to reach the 3% GDP budget deficit. Passing this bill would be a step toward overcoming that objection as it would help legislators argue for fiscal responsibility. A stated 3% GDP ceiling goal would become a benchmark for accountability across administrations, providing both a rule and a report card. With it in mind, each year we would naturally ask, “Is the nation moving toward or away from sustainability?” That stated goal and progress toward fiscal responsibility would strengthens markets, bolster investor confidence, and reduce the risks of the U.S. experiencing a sovereign debt/currency crisis.

@BigJohn043 It would be more helpful if you addressed the agent moral hazard issue (aka problem #2).

Carry allocation in any PE firm is both hard to do fairly and critical. But there are three ways that value is created that all need to be considered. Some of the carry needs to go to the founders. They took the original risk and built the business. They often invested a decent chunk of their personal net worth to make it happen. Some of the carry needs to go to the people who created the track record that allows the firm to raise capital. Raising the money is a big part of the game and that track record has enormous value. Some of the carry needs to be allocated to the people investing and driving results in the current fund. This needs to be the largest portion but many forget the first two. And anyone in this industry has clearly seen cases of the founders simply retaining the vast majority of the economics. This generally doesn't create a long term healthy environment although there are a couple of significant exceptions...

@JaredKubin @zephyr_z9 Agree 100%. The real question is who the winners are in an AI driven world? How important and proprietary is the data that CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks have accumulated.? How relevant does that data remain in an increasingly agentic environment where models learn and adapt in real time? And does the “Bitter Lesson” apply here?

Absolutely Cybersecurity will be one of the biggest winners

@Dan_Jeffries1 That’s the wrong argument. In an agent driven world, software does not win because of relationships or steak dinners. It wins because agents choose the tools that are the most effective.

SaaS is not going anywhere. Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, wants to code and support every piece of software they use. This is a total and complete waste of time. If the market already built what you want and it's good, you are wasting time and money rebuilding it for nothing. And nobody wants to do every job either. You don't want to vibe code the damn AI accounting software and then support it and verify its output. You want the accountants using the AI accounting software. People are really losing their minds in the distortion field right now.

why not just raise income tax rates? because your real intent is not to just “provide healthcare”. you’re masking that you are proposing the creation of, for the first time in the 250 years of this American republic, an organized government seizure of private property from citizens. you’re calling it a “wealth tax” or a “billionaires tax” or “millionaires tax” or whatever nom du jour polls well. but at the end of the day, it’s the seizure of private property from citizens by the government. citizens that earned money, paid their fair taxes on those earnings (53% if they live in California) and are now being told they need to hand over after-tax assets because the government has failed to provide promised services with the revenue it’s collected, and are now re-casting their own failure to be a socio-economic inequity that must be justly resolved... a slippery slope that has never gone anywhere good (see economic effects in USSR, Cuba, Venezuela, France and Norway wealth tax etc.) the American founders fled tyranny in Europe and this amazing nation was populated by immigrants (myself and your parents) from around the world not just looking for a “better life” but for a place where they could have freedom from tyrannical governments that can take what they want from private citizens. a great nation borne of property rights, the rule of law, and endowed freedoms to believe, speak, or act. these principles led to the greatest run of innovations, successes, and widespread increase in prosperity, for all citizens, ever seen. the citizens, the individuals, not the institutions, delivered this progress. those who invented, who toiled, who bled, who sacrificed, who took risk and persevered, who led, and who changed the world, are not charlatans, kleptocrats, or oligarchs. they’re what made us all better off. prosperity is a measure of america’s success, not its failure. it is your principle that is so offensive, as evidenced by the broad disdain for your flippant flirtation with the darkest of human fantasy - socialism. you and other neo-socialists have led so many of us to reflect on America’s history and what it is becoming. that now leads so many to consider, so unnecessarily, leaving their homes for a place where everyone stands up to shout down the principle you suggest. because if your ideas are now considered moderate, it’s clear this titanic is sinking. that a “simple tax” of taking assets that have been earned, through toil and tribulation, rightly taxed, and preserved, should now be unjustly seized, is your solution to a problem of obvious government mismanagement and outright fraud, tells us that your true motivation lies not in giving people healthcare but in cutting down success and deleting the system of prosperity and opportunity for all. i don’t care, and neither should anyone else, what the sum total market value of a private citizens private assets might be. it is none of my business and should be none of yours. because, again, once you open that pandora’s box, we might as well study Lord of the Flies … there is literally nothing stopping 51% of citizens demanding that their government go out and seize 100% of the private property of the 49%. want to give healthcare to people in need? do your job and fix healthcare. make it affordable. want to be lazy about it? then do your job lazily and raise income taxes. want to take private property from private citizens who have paid their fair share of taxes and legally earned their property, then honestly declare that it is envy, not inequity, that you strive to resolve…

This is a story about how skin substitutes, materials used to improve healing of complex wounds, grew from a niche product in 2019 to scamming taxpayers and patients out of $10 bln/year, not because of a medical breakthrough, but from billing abuse. It’s a case study in how hard it is to cut even waste, fraud, and abuse. Medicare, run by CMS, reimburses bandages based upon the average sales price (ASP) at which the private sector is transacting. But in the first 6 months of product introduction, CMS doesn't have the data to compute ASP, so it pays whatever price the company sets. You can see the logic of the rule but probably also see the potential problem. Manufacturers figured out how to game the system. Introduce a new product at an inflated price, which Medicare will pay for the first 6 months. Then, phase it out and introduce an almost identical, but new, product. CMS now covers that product at whatever price the manufacturer set. Five years ago, the most expensive skin substitute was $1,000/sq in. Today it is $21,000/sq in. Why do medical providers support this scam instead of choosing a cheaper product? First, CMS pays providers a fee that includes a % of the bandage’s price, which rewards higher costs. Second, manufacturers offer steep “bulk” discounts on purchases as small as a few inches, and providers keep the difference. The higher the list price, the more they earn. This loophole has become a major revenue stream for dishonest manufacturers and providers. Mobile wound care clinics have popped up to generate demand from patients who never needed the product in the first place. Skin substitutes, unlike drugs, do not need successful randomized controlled trials to come to market. This creates two problems. First, manufacturers have negligible barriers to introduce substitute products every 6 months. And second, there is low quality of evidence on what type of wounds on which these products are effective, leading to overuse. In 2023, an Inspector General warned about the abuse, but fixing even blatant fraud takes time. CMS announced in 2024 a fix would happen in early 2025. In January, the Trump admin paused all Biden admin policies. Ultimately, the Trump admin finalized a rule reducing the price that will go into effect in 2026. Delays have cost taxpayers and patients billions. More concerning, the industry is making very large political donations in an attempt to delay or kill the changes. There’s a constant cat and mouse game between regulators who set healthcare reimbursement rules and companies looking to exploit them. The IG and CMS have done their job. Now they need political support to identify and stop this sort of fraud broadly. Congress must resist industry lobbying to undo the pricing change. Politicians say they’re furious about rising healthcare costs. The real test is whether they’ll address even blatant abuse to actually bring them down.

@Mrcryptoxwhale done

@johnarnold Judge Isgur also did a great job making the court fast, predictable and efficient for non energy companies.

So many oil companies failed in Houston in late 2010s that bankruptcy courts here became highly experienced and adept. Houston companies like Enron and Dynegy filed in NY in the 2000s. Now, complicated bankruptcies like First Brands file in Houston even with minimal tie to city.

Prediction: LLMs in their current form may not be able to do everything, but AI now has enough momentum that this won't matter. Beam engines couldn't do everything either, but they were enough to set off the Industrial Revolution.

@BurggrabenH Apologies…..I missed your emphasis on the “normal” world. I originally read it as describing a rare move, not as highlighting how the real world constantly breaks the normal distribution.

@Opec_Mole That’s the tweet if u read it again. Precisely that

Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Today's −5.7% move is rare; a 4.46-sigma move. In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days). Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold isn’t low-vol. FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Don't panic now.

To the man in 2D. Today you were traveling from Orlando to Philly. I don’t know you, but I imagine you saw us somewhere. I was pushing a stroller, had a diaper bag on my arm and also lugging an oxygen machine for my daughter. We had smiles on our faces as we were headed to see her “friends” at CHOP (Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia). We pre- boarded the plane, got cozy in our window seat and made jokes to those around us about having to sit by my yelling-but-happy baby. The flight attendant came over and told me you were waiting to switch seats. You were giving up your comfortable, first class seat to us. Not able to hold back tears, I cried my way up the aisle while my daughter Lucy laughed! She felt it in her bones too... real, pure, goodness. I smiled and thanked you as we switched but didn’t get to thank you properly. Sooo... thank you. Not just for the seat itself but for noticing. For seeing us and realizing that maybe things are not always easy. For deciding you wanted to show a random act of kindness to US. It reminded me how much good there is in this world. I can’t wait to tell Lucy someday. In the meantime we will pay it forward. AA 588 passenger in seat 2D, we truly feel inspired by your generosity. Credit: Kelsey Zwick