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@beniduboss Switzerland is the best country in the world. 😍

I am so tired of the “Switzerland is just evil bankers hiding elite money” narrative Banking is only about 5% of Swiss GDP Pharma is bigger, at 5.8%, fyi we account for 10.5% of global pharmaceutical exports Manufacturing is around 24% We also rank #1 in innovation world wide Oh and we also have the only real democracy in the world The issue is that the foreigners view of Switzerland and its economy is plagued by it’s image… No sorry but it isn’t just Zurich and Geneva carrying a country of cows and ski chalets where inhabitants produce chocolate and expensive watches Zurich canton, aka the state of Zurich, produces roughly 18% of Swiss GDP with about 18% of the population Geneva produces about 8% of GDP with only 5.9% of the population The reality is that the country is full of small towns with industrial and service bases that employ people locally and sustain entire regions Take Monthey, where I grew up. It’s a city of around 15,000 people, yet it holds one of the largest contiguous chemical site in Europe: 2,000 people on site daily, with names like Ciba, BASF, Huntsman, Sun Chemical, and Syngenta. For Syngenta, largest crop protection producer in the world, Monthey is a globally important production hub That site is also where the world famous Ferrari red pigment was invented That’s the real Switzerland Small places quietly making world-class things, and the system works: My father grew up on a rural farm, couldn’t get a higher education. To give my family a better life he got a job at Syngenta working night shifts as a factory worker. 20y later he still works there, but now he moved up to a coordinator role in charge of a part of manufacturing where he leads a team of 20. There aren’t many places where you can leave school at 14, spend your whole life as an employee, never invest a cent beyond your retirement savings, and still work your way from the lower class into a very comfortable middle-class life 2 months ago, I took the day off to join my dad as he picked up his Porsche Taycan 4S. Sure, it was secondhand and around 120k off sticker, but for someone who grew up waking up at 4:30 to milk cows before school, then back to work again after class, and never had a vacation until he met my mom in his mid-20s, it’s an extraordinary milestone The state covered my healthcare until I was 20, and it quite literally saved my life, I would not be here otherwise Swiss taxpayers spent roughly CHF 18 million keeping me alive, and a big part of what drives me is the desire to repay that debt by becoming a net positive for my country And yes, of course Switzerland made real moral compromises during WWII, but for the love of god consider the situation it was in Judging those choices without looking at a map is deeply unserious: by 1940 Switzerland was effectively surrounded by Axis-controlled territory, so neutrality was a survival strategy under extreme pressure, not some claim to moral purity lol. So yes, the Swiss National Bank bought gold from Nazi Germany. The real question is not whether compromises happened, but if survival ended and complicity began. It’s very easy to moralize about clean choices once the war is over and someone else had to live through the alternatives… If you are going to criticize Switzerland, do it where criticism is deserved Lastly, before calling Switzerland cowardly for neutrality, remember that Pope Julius II founded the Swiss Guard in 1506 because Swiss mercenaries were the best in the world and had a reputation for loyalty and military effectiveness. Five centuries later we are still protecting the Pope btw Next time instead of taking about our big bad banks, talk about: our factories, our labs, our medicines, our engineering, or the diplomacy, the humanitarian work and so on Oh and look at your own countries actions before having the audacity to criticize others…

@tomicki Thanks for flagging it. But stop Using AI to write these. It shows and deters from the pitch itself

Previous ideas: azitrading.com/pitches.php

4/ The Capital Allocation Machine Since August 2021, BLDR has repurchased 96 million shares — 46.5% of its total shares outstanding — at an average price of ~$80/share, spending $7.6 billion. Read that again. They retired nearly HALF the float in under four years. Share count fell 6% in 2024 alone, and another ~6% in 2025. Even in a down cycle they generated $853M in free cash flow in 2025. Management is buying back stock aggressively at roughly today's price. The chairman just bought $4.4M of stock personally in March 2026.

@JesseCohenInv Accounts would not last the night. Few returning customers 😂

Next billion dollar idea: a sports bar but for the stock market. Instead of screens playing games they will show charts, live X feeds, a bloomberg terminal, and Polymarket screens. Why does this not exist yet?

@hkuppy Yup. Best thing to have now is cash. Sit and wait for this to unfold. If it doesn’t reopen soon the repercussions are biblical

The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force generation that is a few times that of Iraq 1. As you can imagine, most Americans want nothing to do with an adventure like this. At the same time, Trump cannot simply go home, as that would be a defeat. As terrible as it seems, Trump is slowly realizing what I said a few weeks ago, the only way out of Iran, is through Iran. Are you ready for what’s coming..?? They’ve been prepping for 45 years…

@hkuppy @seethetrees1 You’re in Kebab land now. TACO ainda gonna cut it

@seethetrees1 We cant TACO

Trump can TACO, burrito and chimichanga, but nothing will open Hormuz unless Iran wants it open. We can’t go home with Hormuz shut and missiles raining down on our friends. The only way out, is through Iran.. As scary as that sounds, I think we’re going to mobilize serious boots on the ground. That takes 6+ months. No one’s portfolio is positioned for half a year of this chaos…

@capitalistexp @LukeGromen Europe and US will print and pay whatever they need to secure oil&gas. EMs will suffer the most. Just like in 2022 after Russia attacked Ukraine

@LukeGromen There is no policy response that fixes a physical supply issue. None.

If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will spin.

@BeenThereCap Even if he TACOs, it’s outside his command.

I genuinely think this shortens the duration before TACO. 1. Oil & LNG supply crunch worsens more uickly 2. Unless Trump green-lighted Israel's strike in advance, he is likely very angry. He may reach the point of telling Israel "@#$% you, we're outta here, good luck on your own"

@muddywatersre You forgot it was pumped by Scamath

MW is short $SOFI. We believe SOFI is a financial engineering treadmill—not a healthy origination business. GE Capital-style marks, Enron-esque off-balance-sheet structures, and relentless dilution. muddywatersresearch.com/research/2026/…

@Mr_Neutral_Man @TidefallCapital Hold cash. At least 50%

@TidefallCapital What's your best hedge? I do kind get some of that vibe A little bit of 08 vibes with cracks in private credit slowly manifesting itself, high oil prices which went to $150 back then Hope it doesn't get to that

Anybody else getting Feb 2020 covid in Italy vibes? At what price for WTI does panic set in? $150?

@Dannyjokes Pls don’t get ahead of yourself. 80-90% of the money goes to all the ‘hands’ in between the coffers and the homeless

Hear me out. We give every homeless $60000 per year. In exchange for the money they can provide services or labor. And then they can take that money and cover their expenses like housing, food etc. Just spitballing

@James56487175 @christankerfund You need to consider military vessels have Phalanx CIWS defense systems. Much cheaper and accurate than tomahawks to intercept threats. It works in a naval escort as ships are grouped

@christankerfund I’ll explain it real slow: ~1%-4% of Iran’s missiles & drones get to their targets. If the velocity of their launches are above a certain threshold that is still a threat to our military personnel. Once that velocity is low enough so is the risk, then they will escort ships.

Lmao I can’t with these headlines 😅😅 So WSJ says US would only escort once the threat is lower. Apparently I misunderstood the point of an escort.

@CorneliaLake Thank you!

With the Private Credit meltdown accelerating, we took the paywall off of our 40+ page thought piece from December. This was our second big thought piece (we have one on Vegas), and through the year we tend to do 4-5 of them - along with mostly single name research. Link below $OWL $ARES $BX $KKR $APO $TPG $CG $BLK $HLNE $HYG $BKLN $ARCC $OBDC $KRE $LQD

@MikeyWinter And the impending debt restructuring ?!

The chart below overlays $BAK stock price (blue) with the PE-Ethane spread (white). In 2020, the PE-Ethane spread moved from ~$700 to ~$1200 over the course of ~12 months. $BAK stock traded from ~$6.75 to ~$25 over that same period. Since the beginning of the Iran war, the PE-Ethane spread has moved from ~$700 to ~$920. To the extent the war in Iran is protracted (i.e. beyond a few weeks), further expansion of the PE-Ethane spread is likely. We could see $1200 in a matter of weeks given the severity of the supply disruption across the middle east and Asia. $BAK stock price has basically moved ~$1 since the beginning of the war...it moved almost $20 in a year back in 2020 on what will likely be a similar move in margins. $BAK is hanging on by a thread as operations/Mexico have been a mess, but to the extent this move in margins emphatically takes BK risk off the table, the stock is materially mis-priced at $5/sh.

@hkuppy They won’t. They pivoted from Russia to LNG … never even considering they could increase production in the North Sea. The NL even shut their largest gas field in 23!

In retrospect, it was pretty stupid for Europe to curb oil production and shut a bunch of refiners. Europe needs to suffer, if they’re ever gonna wake up. This is good for them…

@ddnanocap All the while you causally forget to mention they will restructure the debt in 2-3 months and massively dilute minority shareholders …

10/10 market is selling Brazil indiscriminately on Iran headline risk and ignoring second order effects combined with REIQ passage, global capacity closures, and tariff removal all converge to benefit Braskem specifically. Priced for permanent trough while the trough is ending.

1/10 $BAK thread. Braskem is down 3.5% today while every near term catalyst is stacking in its favor and nobody is paying attention. Largest polyolefins producer in the Americas, $14B revenue, trading at 85% off its 2021 highs.

@StockCompil And yet the stock is a dog… incredible this one

Focus Capital Management on $BUR US: This despite Burford having substantially grown in the years since and having won the YPF case at the trial level, which is now approaching the final stretch of the road in the appeals process. Burford’s entitlement from the YPF case exceeds $7 billion, and whatever number you assume for a negotiated settlement, it will be quite significant placed next to Burford’s market cap of $2 billion. (From their Q4'25 letter)

@guillermocarone Now do Portugal

Since my last tweet sparked so much interest, here is another “funny” story about the Spanish administration. One day I checked my bank account and saw a €590 charge I did not recognize. After 20 min on the phone whit my bank, I learned Hacienda had seized the money. They gave me a case number. I started calling to understand why. No one would explain it over the phone. They could not verify my identity remotely. I had to go in person. The next appointment was in three weeks. At the appointment, they told me a commercial space I owned was being used as a home. Illegal. I told them I had sold it a year earlier, and that when I owned it, it was rented as storage. 20 sqm. One open room. They said THEY HAD PROOF and showed me photos. The photos were not my shop. The building has three street level shops: 1, 2, 3. The inspector mixed them up. He took photos of shop 1 but wrote shop 3 in some forms. The infraction happened three years earlier. Shop 1 was notified repeatedly and did nothing about it. When it was time to collect, they charged shop 3. That was me. The photos showed a kitchen and a bedroom. My shop was a single 20 sqm space. They could verify that in public property records. They said they needed an inspection. Next available slot: two months. I repeated that I no longer owned the property. I could not give access to something that was not mine. They escalated the case. Over the next year, I received three calls. Each time I had to explain everything again. Each time they asked if I could get the new owner to give access. I did not know the new owner. They said they would call back. Finally, someone senior called. He said this would be the last time they called if I was not willing to cooperate. I said I couldn’t do what they asked, no matter how much I wanted to. He said there was nothing they could do. AND THAT IS HOW I LOST €590, spent 10 to 12 hours on calls and visits, and carried this issue in my head for over a year.

URGENT - need help from someone flying tomorrow (18-feb) from Geneva to Lisbon, to bring my son’s ID card. We’re stuck in Lisbon and I can’t fly with him without it. Pls reach out if you can help! Thank you

@Citrini7 What is the same trade today ?

The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).

@RandolphDuke7 Thank you! Looks super helpful!!

@Elementcapl Then select Return Decomposition. That gives you earnings growth vs change in earnings multiple. It's a handy visualization tool. Brown Forman is interesting. We have been through two big changes in the reigning narrative. Those screw up people's thinking about what's next.

Nearly five years of multiple compression at Visa. Will be fun if this blows up on agentic AI fears. I'd be a buyer on that.