Drip Strategy

@FusionptCapital what in the fuck. muting the word axios.

@HeadedNine HAH. crazy shit. not forgetting that name, barak ravid

Much better

@alexbhturnbull @elonmusk i see what you are saying. a more stable middle east would lessen immigration to europe, but israel wants a less stable middle east (to put it mildly).

@elonmusk The Israel / anti-immigration / anti-muslim right wing nexus makes zero sense. It may be a coalition of racists but it is one with radically opposed interests.

It is explicitly Israeli foreign policy to turn every state in the Middle East into a failed one the likes of Syria 2011-2015. I am amazed that more EU states are not more robust with a country whose foreign policy objectives are diametrically opposed to their domestic ones re immigration.

@LyleHender56329 @uber_trading 5 shahed launched at a cargo ship = no insurance company would cover it at a reasonable rate = strait still closed. what am i missing here

@uber_trading Zelenskyy offered to use what they learned in the Black Sea grain corridor. You think Iran has better weapons than Russia? If so why are they using children to protect their infrastructure? The GCC has said they will start patrols. India and China are pushing to have it open.

What guarantee would Iran have that US / Israel wouldn’t bomb them during a cease fire if they let down their guard? None. So why would they agree? Cat’s outta the bag. I doubt any letdown is coming anytime soon

@BickerinBrattle Personally I think USA is not "spiritually ready" for fighting an adversary even remotely competitive with the USA....imagine the reaction if we saw a destroyer or assault ship get its shit rocked by a missile like the USS Cole

The issue isn't insurers or trepidation of oil tankers that are keeping Hormuz stymied. It is that US Navy is not willing to accept risk in opening the Straits. With such willingness Straits become non issue. Good chance a ship or two gets severely damaged - lesson of Moskva not lost. There is a chance USN tactics and weaponry are archaic or outdated just as we are finding tanks are so in land war. USN must either table weapons appropriate or go out take the hit. Imagine learning this when China goes for Taiwan rather than learn now at Hormuz. I am not being flippant but this is the issue. Trump doing all he can to avoid this reality with bluster and bullshit - won't work - as he knows one ship goes down then he is swept away in midterms. So the entire issue of crude is but an election folly for Trump. Once that is faced then Hormuz is near immediate returned to how it was two months ago, a non issue. So as far as portfolio management and trading goes it is a non issue now. This is more akin to Battle of Memphis in 1862 than any ocean going sea battle. It is a non event. Trump fighting fir his political life.

@shlonjay @colossus_cap 😂

@colossus_cap Peak oil or peak retard? Maybe his stuff makes sense in original old norse?

The duality of man

@Stockspy1 that post is pure speculation at this point, not confirmed

Or...they are worried US special forces are coming for him......

@BickerinBrattle need more political will in the congress FFS....bunch of losers

There are at least two guys in a room in DC discussing 25th. "What can we do?"

@DoubleWideCap That is referring to peacetime though, another head fake

Market wants to go higher. Ignore the "bomb into the stone age" and get excited about "drafting a protocol"

@hammerfrog64 yes...didnt realize they could hold off or stop any further cascades this wk...was up 10% on mon and now retraced it...dang it!!! oh well, onto the next. I think I am still just gonna hold the shorts.

Have you round tripped yet anon?

@Analyst_G Greg, how is tesla supposed to keep its Elon premium once spacex IPOs??? I think both are going to turbo nuke IMO.

$MSTR 400$ vibes…

@SmallCapScience @ValueSeeker_ theres some brookings economist saying that he expects like $120 to be a terminal ceiling due to elasticity and shit. IDK if he's right but a LOT of people are betting against even $150 oil.

“Oil can’t go over $150” Yes, it can. We aren’t even close to hitting the levels from 1980 or 2008 when inflation adjusted using M2 Money Supply. We could see $350 Oil and not eclipse our inflation adjusted highs from 2008. Chart Cred - @ValueSeeker_

@andrewyork98 @SmallCapScience honestly i am in a bit of disbelief. I believe it but WOW man.

@SmallCapScience This oil crisis will be worst than the 70s. Supply shock will hit Europe in next 10 days. Book it.

There are millions of ways you can make money. Imagine thinking the best use of your capital is shorting oil during the biggest energy crisis we've ever seen.

@CloudedNT @based16z ugh....aint that the truth....any shred of short profits i dont take i instantly lose the next day

@based16z equites to zero but so slow you cant make any significant amount of money on it

@Prometheus_The1 well, i would have agreed but looks like CL is trying to push thru the zone again

I don't really care what this means for macro but the set up is almost identical between $CL and $GLD.

@stogolp really quite shocking that can happen so quickly...thats only 4 wks of closure...crazier things have happened...

I was fine with no oil, but no bbl's? trump must end this war immediately 🤬

@PurpleDrink_LLC tariff low can get taken. if you think about it, the market may have been on a trajectory to get this exact same spot if you just cover up the whole tariff drama. the tariff low lines up with 2021 macro support so its on the table imo. over time. lets see.

Bring me your crash predictions

@SandyBrandyy @crypto_condom @citrini @SplitCapital bookmarking dis shit to see how we play out.

Ditto. April 1 (Gated redemptions + start of Q2) - Selling pressure + fund rebalances April 3 (Non Farm Payrolls + Easter weekend) - Large gap risk on Monday April 6 (Trump’s energy deadline) - Binary: Strike or ceasefire - OPEC also meets on April 5. April 10 (CPI) - 4%?! First CPI with energy/agriculture shocks April 13 (Q1 Earnings season begins) - Eyes on forward guidance + margin compressions (Esp tech/energy/agri adjacent) - IMF + World Banks meet this week too. Unlikely but any IMF downgrade on global GDP growth is very bearish. April 17 (OPEX) - High vol = elevated gamma … maybe a relief bounce? April 28 (FOMC) - New Fed chair’s first FOMC: Look out for policy stances. Probably no rate hike but expect him to address it. - ECB meets on April 30. === General eye: semi-con, energy, agri force majeures.

Likely going to put in a bottom on Monday…in the short term, at least.

@SixSigmaCapital tape boutta be ask ask ask ask ask

Last train out of town was indeed around 90 mins before close. Let's see how things shake out in next days and weeks but looks like bears will take over the tape again.

@Crussian17 honestly ur onto something there....sigh

Sounds tough to just leave then