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@btc_overflow @Cheshire_Cap Probably right. Which is ironic/counterproductive considering it would foster long term investment vs trading

@MICH__ELE @Cheshire_Cap Equal treatment rules effectively prohibit this in the US.

STRC went ex-div today, paying 96c to all participants who were long into yesterday's close. Similar to the XYZ oil perp oracle rolls, this price dynamic has been much better understood since even last month. Because preferred shares issue discrete dividends and don't accrue daily like bonds, if the product is priced inefficiently, there is no reason to hold for the rest of the month. The incentives are to come in right before the dividend is paid, collect the 96c payment, and then sell the shares back to the market for a (hopefully) smaller loss. The volume on April 14 alone was more than what we saw for the entire prior week (Apr 6 - 10). IMHO, this represents mercenary capital crowding into the product after seeing the price reaction over the past 3 months--an average drop of ~20c, much smaller than the 90+c dividend. The bulk of this capital will likely unwind and try for the same trade again next month, exaggerating the vola of STRC in the meantime. Given the relative size of this cohort's contribution this time around, I expect it will take a few days longer for STRC to repeg to par again than it has in previous months. The chunkiness of this behaviour is suboptimal both for Saylor, who gets frontrun on his BTC purchases, as well as for the product itself. While STRC becomes incredibly liquid the ~week ahead of ex-div, trading billions in a 1c range, it creates a dead zone in the 2-3 weeks after ex-div in which spreads widen, volume falls, and the product trades substantially off-peg. Hence, I believe @saylor will look to either adjust STRC's dividend frequency or introduce a new, more junior product that pays weekly in the next few quarters. Good luck out there.

@btc_overflow @Cheshire_Cap Could there be a HODL reward mechanism like for some French stocks (from memory AirLiquide). I know these don’t work for US listed equity, but AFAIK prefs are uncharted territory

@Cheshire_Cap Nasdaq 10-day notice rule for dividends all but guarantees they'll never do weekly (ETFs paying weekly dividends have different notice rules). Even if suboptimal, the trading patterns are still likely an improvement over the front-running that occurred with CBs.

@RichardByworth @AdamBLiv I watched that call live. “iPhone moment”. I sent it to all my TradFi buddies. They all laughed. Looking back it will be obvious but the clarity, conviction and reputational exposure he delivered was unprecedented

@AdamBLiv It is as he said: the iPhone moment

STRC will have $2.8 billion of trading volume on May 14, 2026. Strategy will likely buy $2.2 billion of Bitcoin that day from STRC proceeds alone.

@bramk @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC I owe you an apology then haha

@MICH__ELE @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC that's me haha

Is there a public chart that displays a bandwith of # of BTC available, at any given time? @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC

@bramk @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC “Supply shock” bros might have been right all along 😂

@MICH__ELE @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC i like that

@bramk @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC What would be really cool would be to interview someone with deep knowledge of market plumbing/structure to understand at what levels of spot “BTC available” the asset has to materially reprice to support the paper market

@MICH__ELE @_Checkmatey_ @btcjvs @sminston_with @TheRealPlanC cool thanks

@alistairmilne This 100pct is the key point. Structural, uncorrelated and indiscriminate bid for a supply inelastic asset riddled by mass fuckery. At what level of exchange supply do we start seeing fireworks?

Hot take: Saylor buying from $STRC proceeds may force the Bitcoin MMs to stop their tradfi correlated trading (vs NASDAQ/software stocks) as they may start losing real money

@Trollstein @Strategy @TNorth Interesting. Even more consequential is what this does to exchange balances given supply inelasticity…

We now have both a 1M & 2M @Strategy BTC target on the @TNorth website Strategy is ~580 days from 2,000,000 BTC Base case: Monday, November 15, 2027 780,897 of 2,000,000 BTC (39.04%)

@AdamBLiv Interesting. At what level of exchange supply is a radical repricing of spot required? Is it 2M, 1.5M or 1M?

How much STRC does Strategy have to issue to drive Bitcoin to $1,000,000? Realistically, something like 0.5% to 1.5% of a $300T global debt market is the zone I’d watch, with ~0.6% to 1.2% as a very clean base case. Here’s the logic. Bitcoin is about $71,680 right now, and circulating supply is about 20.01 million BTC, which puts current BTC market cap around $1.43T. At $1,000,000 per BTC, market cap would be about $20.01T. So the gap to close is roughly $18.58T. If you did the dumb, literal accounting version where every fresh dollar of STRC capital only created one extra dollar of BTC market cap, Saylor would need capital equal to about 6.19% of $300T. That is the upper-bound, brute-force answer, and it is way too conservative because markets do not reprice that linearly. The reason the real answer is lower is that Bitcoin has a flow-to-market-cap multiplier. Recent academic work explicitly defines a “crypto multiplier” as the market-cap response to investor inflows and says major cryptocurrencies likely have large multipliers because most coins are held as investments, not used for payments. Separate flow research on spot BTC ETFs also finds that ETF inflows have a persistent positive effect on BTC prices, which reinforces the basic idea that fresh capital can move market value by more than one-for-one. So if you model that $18.58T repricing gap through different multipliers, you get this: 20x multiplier: about $0.93T of net BTC buying, about 0.31% of $300T 10x multiplier: about $1.86T, about 0.62% 5x multiplier: about $3.72T, about 1.24% 3x multiplier: about $6.19T, about 2.06% If STRC-style issuance became a major global fixed-income product, Saylor probably does not need 6% of the debt market. He more likely needs something in the neighborhood of 0.5% to 1.5% captured cumulatively over time, assuming Bitcoin reprices reflexively as float tightens. That range corresponds roughly to a 10x to 5x effective market-cap multiplier, which feels aggressive but not insane for an asset with scarce liquid supply and persistent corporate/ETF demand. There is one more wrinkle. STRC is not a zero-cost funding source. Strategy says STRC currently carries an 11.50% variable annual dividend, payable monthly in cash. If Strategy wanted to reserve, say, roughly 2 years of dividend coverage on new issuance, then only about 77% of gross proceeds would actually go into BTC. Under that assumption, the gross debt-market share needed rises to roughly 0.80% in the 10x case and 1.61% in the 5x case. And just to show how early this still is, Strategy’s site currently shows STRC notional at about $5.355B, which is only about 0.0018% of $300T. So to do this through STRC alone, the machine would need to scale by hundreds of times from here. $1M Bitcoin via STRC alone probably implies capturing around 1% of the global debt market, give or take, not 6%. 6% is the static-accounting answer. ~1% is the reflexive-market answer. High liquidity, low volatility, high yield. There's nothing like it. It's a good thing the best product wins in the marketplace.

@BitcoinPierre ❤️ this

We're at a decisive moment, will bitcoin's 4 year cycle break?

@PeterSchiff @RonSwanonson What happened before that Peter you absolute wombat?

@RonSwanonson Because gold rose so much before the war and Bitcoin fell.

If Bitcoin “isn’t a store of value”, then why is it outperforming gold during a war? I guess gold isn’t a store of value either… Who can explain?

@LawrenceLepard @dmweisberger I hope you are right. But Trump and Bessent have shown a shocking level of ineptitude so far. My money is on them somehow fumbling the bag (yet again)

@dmweisberger I think he gets confirmed fast. War dictates it. Bessent will tell Trump to drop suit against Powell.

Important clue: we will build a narrative to cut rates.

@AdamBLiv Rough guide

Strategy at current pace (~43K BTC/month) absorbs 3.185x monthly mined supply. That ratio alone is staggering. 20% of the highly Bitcoin liquid supply gets absorbed in under 5 months at current pace. The stress case is survivable with years of dividend coverage, and critically, prior absorption is permanent. Coins don't come back. STRC hitting $333M volume yesterday with one penny of volatility is the clearest signal the instrument is working as designed. What this means for Bitcoin over a 5 year timeframe is staggering. Digital credit is what pushes Bitcoin to $1,000,000.

@bleighky @TimKotzman @PunterJeff @Z06Z07 @TNorth Sharpe Ratio is an irrelevant metric for an asset whose returns are not normally distributed. But why let facts get in the way? (Before you ask, I do think $STRC is the biggest story in finance today)

Tradfi is going to have a collective mental breakdown when $STRC hits a sharpe ratio of 40. I can't wait 🤣 @PunterJeff @Z06Z07

@EneaDenkt $STRC. Few

This 10 mins price chart will revolutionize BTC. IYKYK

@dotkrueger I think Luke will buy in just below where he sold. After we conclusively decouple from software and he realises the significance of STRC

At what point does India Bitcoin Man buy back in? Luke Groman? Andy Eckstrom?

@btcjvs @LukeGromen loved your pod with @LynAldenContact the other day. Are we finally decoupling?

Both Bitcoin and IGV initially made their lows on February 5. Since then, IGV has gone onto make new lows twice.

@Pledditor @jemimajoanna publicly took the piss out of @balajis for saying that when the rules-based order collapses, the code-based order rises. Life comes at you fast

Actually big news. Bitcoin wins over gold here, because gold can be seized. Bitcoin wins out over stablecoins, because Iran needs (not wants) the censorship resistant characteristics + Iran is purposefully trying to exit supporting the US dollar system in protest of the war.