Ray Micaletti

For weekly updates on relative sentiment, sign up for our newsletter here: relativesentiment.com

The tell will be what the CoT shows tomorrow. If institutions were buying and retail selling (either gold or silver) that would be a positive development. If Smart Money continues to sell dollar as they have the past three weeks, that also would be a good sign. If they weren't buying gold and silver, that would be a bad sign. Longer-term, we are in a secular bull market in commodities and precious metals, so hard to see precious metals not going much higher. How can the U.S. fiscal situation withstand stronger dollar and positive real interest rates? It can't. Fed may ultimately have to implement yield-curve control, at which point real assets will be the place to be.

@RelSentTech ok rya, what you thinking with the Gold? toast for a while? or retail dumping it all, and 'tutions picking it up? (been reading CBs dumping to fund themselves so i think gold is screwed for a while(?)) thanks as always

@zerohedge @DouglasPugliese

TRADING HALTED IN KEY CONTRACTS ON THE LONDON METAL EXCHANGE

No, the argument is that when we launch reckless, unjustified wars of choice without congressional approval, unsupported by a strong majority of the population, and that will be ruinous for the country, shouldn't there be some checks and balances to constrain our leaders from doing unconscionable things?

@RelSentTech Ok so your argument now is that my plan is too good and Americans won't feel enough pain?

The USA is a net oil exporter. Closing the Strait of Hormuz hurts almost every other country more than it hurts the USA (except Russia). But we can make it hurt even less. We can keep domestic oil prices cheap while also raising money for the federal government: If the Strait stays closed, the US govt should impose an export tariff on oil. For example, say the global price hits $150 a barrel. Domestic oil producers right now make a profit at anything above around $65 a barrel. But oil was trading around $80 before the war, so let’s be nice to them. Put a $70 export tariff on each barrel taken out of the country. Then domestic oil companies will be indifferent between exporting oil for $150 and paying the $70 tariff, or selling domestically for $80. And so the price in America will fall back to $80. This would help the American people, raise revenue for the federal government, allow domestic oil producers to continue making a very good profit, and remove all the domestic political leverage that the Iranian regime is hoping to exert by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Win win win win. It’s a no brainer. The oil lobby will bitch, but we’re fighting an oil war right now that is making them massively wealthy, so…maybe they should just shut the fuck up?

@romanhelmetguy I.e., when we do dumb shit let's make sure Americans don't feel any pain so we don't get any negative feedback on our retardery.

@RelSentTech No, we're telling them: "When we start a war that doubles the global price of oil, we're not going to pass the entire cost on to the Americans dying in that war while your investors reap an insane windfall."

@DouglasPugliese 🔥

Why not? It's working for them in silver!

Energy stocks just broke out of a 3.5 year consolidation in a secular inflationary cycle that will have them as the best performing sector over its duration (they're the biggest sector winner since end of 2021 even with 3.5 years of going sideways). It would take a miracle for them to top this week unless you're referring to a normal routine overbought pullback.

@kpak82 Agree. XLE weekly is exactly the same chart as silver and EWY before the parabola collapsed.

Oil and energy sector is likely going to top this week.

@DBclouds99 @WarrenPies @rev_cap Definitely feels stage-managed. Gold down more than stocks on war in the Middle East? Ok....

@WarrenPies @rev_cap @RelSentTech

It’s insane the treasury may have actually shorted oil futures How far are we from the treasury just buying stocks?

@DBclouds99 @timpierotti1 @AahanPrometheus No opinion, @DBclouds99!

@timpierotti1 @AahanPrometheus @RelSentTech What say you about this clip? 👀🙄?

Former Lehman, former Soros and current 22V technician John Roque. Guy has been really good at what he does for a long time.

@SirSilverQuack @DouglasPugliese

Forty-three consecutive days of SHFE silver backwardation while Shanghai premiums surge toward ~$12/oz, prices go near-vertical, and open interest quietly collapses is the sort of chart that makes old metals traders stare into the distance like they’ve just seen the ocean catch fire, because this configuration means the physical market is no longer cooperating with the paper narrative: buyers in Asia are refusing to sell forward metal, inventories on Chinese exchanges are grinding toward multi-year lows, arbitrage desks are scrambling to source bars, and the COMEX vaults are simultaneously leaking ounces like a punctured submarine while the futures curve tries to pretend everything is normal; historically this cocktail only shows up when the market is transitioning from a derivatives-driven pricing regime to a physical scarcity regime, where the remaining free-float metal gets quietly hoarded by sovereign buyers, industrial users, and wealthy stackers, leaving the paper market to discover the horrifying arithmetic that there simply aren’t enough deliverable ounces to satisfy leverage built on decades of synthetic supply — and when that realization spreads through the system, the resolution rarely looks like a gentle rally but more like a violent repricing event where silver stops trading like a commodity and starts behaving like the last drink of water in the desert.

@DouglasPugliese 💯

Is the COMEX thwarting price discovery? In light of frequent COMEX "server issues," I imagine miners and refiners who sell silver bullion forward on that exchange might be seen as breaching their fiduciary duties to shareholders to maximize value.

@DouglasPugliese Doug, where you going to store those 3.4M ounces?!

Registered #silver inventory in #COMEX vaults declined by a further 3.36 million troy ounces on Tuesday, to 88.79 million ounces -- on a day when silver prices tanked. Hold on!

@chigrl @AnthonyCrudele Thanks for having me and putting me on the hot seat @chigrl !

If you missed the incredible @RelSentTech on Ninjatrader Live this week with @AnthonyCrudele and mee talking macro markets, equities, bonds, precious metals and more, you can catch the replay via the link below! 1/2

@DBclouds99 @TXMCtrades @wclemente Thanks, Dan.

@TXMCtrades @wclemente @RelSentTech

Michael Howell continues to emphasize that the US liquidity cycle has peaked, that stories about liquidity abundance are incorrect, and that the Great Debasement trade is a misleading narrative. When he first said this a couple months ago it was strongly non-consensus. Still is.

Up this morning on NinjaTrader Live at 8:30 AM ET, we have special guest @RelSentTech youtube.com/live/Vi6DbpIlJ…

A bull flag in process in $ES that, should it play out, would take us to the top of this mini megaphone, 7120+.

Did Bessent put out the word to insiders at 7:15pm Thursday evening that it was time to weaken the dollar again? Crude, gold, silver, ES, and bitcoin all bottomed in unison.

@DBclouds99 @ftcommodities 🤦‍♂️

@ftcommodities @RelSentTech

Retail traders double down on silver even as price plunges ft.trib.al/22zdiyp

Silver *may* be forming a megaphone pattern. Held where it needed to last night (which conveniently also took out an outstanding phantom tick on SLV at $59). Now needs to break the downtrend line. Reminiscent of $ES and $NQ after the tariff selloff in April--they rocketed from there to new highs while everyone was in disbelief.

@TraderSmarts All good!

@RelSentTech What a drop. I hope the shift in RL for GC from Wed to Thurs session didn't screw you up. I thought about making the 6814 - 6801.4 a Zone but it seems so wide so I shifted the single digit.

Who's trading silver? Those who waited for Range Short before getting short had the potential to book 7 pts, I'll say that again, 7 points in silver. From today's Range Short into the day's LIS. That pays for an annual subscription with many coins left in your pocket. $SI_F