@APompliano I would say the post 2024 election euphoria of the Davos/Wallstreet/Crypto/Tech VC crowds was a case where consensus was wildly off
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AK2000
124 posts
There are only two times I can remember the consensus view being this offsides as it is with tariffs:
1. Everyone thinking bitcoin was worthless pre-2019
2. Everyone thinking inflation wouldn't be a problem after printing trillions of dollars during the pandemic
How can you tell the consensus is wrong?
Because anyone who says something other than the accepted talking points is immediately attacked, shouted down, and called stupid.
Once you see the pattern, you can't unsee it.
The more the "experts" screech, the more confident you can be you are on target.
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Out of curiosity, what is the likelihood that inside the Trump circle there are people actively trading the volatility that Trump’s comments generate by front running his comments? Too conspiratorial?
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@NateSilver538 Two complete girly Winnies pretending to be "based tough guys" with High T to impress mostly incel fan base is a guilty pleasure to watch!
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Dude, wtf are you talking about. Nobody is manipulating sunlight. Time zones are a social construct that we all have to agree on. And most people don't like 430am sunrises if it costs them evening daylight.
Saagar Enjeti@esaagar
This is wrong in every way. It is the height of hubris to assume that sunlight should be manipulated to have more time at the end of the day when biologically we NEED it more in the morning Permanent DST is an abomination against biology
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@EpsilonTheory OMG! This may take more than a stove burn to really teach folks a lesson
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Sorry, guys, but I just can’t do it anymore. Everyone’s gonna have to burn themselves on the stove again.
Tony James@anthrod1
@EpsilonTheory Always? USD stablecoin yields on Aave (major protocol) have been 15-25 over the last month by lending to leveraged BTC traders, but to the best of my knowledge that has been objectively safer than holding it in the US10Y etc.
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I’m joined by Mark Schwartz to discuss the potential for AI to create a new growth wave of creative destruction, rivaling those of previous cycles, with transformative implications for business, society, and the role of government in the economy.
🧵👇🏼
hiddenforces.io/podcasts/new-a…
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@josephwang Interesting - but this also corresponds to women coming into the work force en mass, and also outsourcing....and mass automation...and trade liberalization...and international capital markets deregulation...and financial deregulation...and general deregulation. Pick ur fav prior
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Lower illegal migration does not have to lead to a labor shortage, it could simply lead to a higher labor participation rate of American men.
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@APompliano Agreed! But, this was literally a core Econ policy proposal of one the candidates in the last election that you didn't support!
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It is insane that the average American is forced to pay higher and higher prices for a home because local regulations prevent the building of enough housing.
Deregulate. Build more homes. Achieve affordability.
This is not rocket science.
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@ArmandDoma @IDoTheThinking His was actually much higher. He hit 58% approval across all voters in January
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@KyleKulinski Now come over to Blue sky, or at least cross post bro!
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Every vote to block arms sales to Israel is a democrat. What happened I was told MAGA is anti-war
- Martin Heinrich (D)
- Mazie Hirono (D)
- Tim Kaine (D)
- Angus King (I - caucuses with dems)
- Ed Markey (D)
- Jeff Merkley (D)
- Jon Ossoff (D)
- Bernie Sanders (I - caucuses with dems)
- Brian Schatz (D)
- Tina Smith (D)
- Elizabeth Warren (D)
- Peter Welch (D)
- Dick Durbin (D)
- Chris Van Hollen (D)
- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
- Ben Ray Luján (D)
- Raphael Warnock (D)
- Chris Murphy (D)
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A lot of economists have moved over to the place where the sky is blue -- thoughtful folks from academic, government, @nberpubs and lots of other places
If most economists did it, something like the old #econtwitter could emerge.
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Great article on the hyper growth happening on the other site! #hockeystick #growth #tothemoon #engagement nytimes.com/2024/11/17/tec…
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@KyleKulinski Good post! Now go over to Blue Sky now! You haven't posted there yet and the place is now blowing up! We're talking hockey stick growth
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@ichthys30 Yet nobody mentions that his speech at the dinner insulting him was his first response to months of absurd "birth certificate" BS. At least mention that. Give me a break!
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@rmc031 Thanks for posting! I've been thinking this too. The "Groups" are way more ideological than "regular folks" they purport to represent, nowhere more than Immigration groups. We talk about "The wall" -well, in Mexico there is massive support for it, on their own southern border!
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"Groups have become too accustomed to enjoying access without holding themselves accountable; the question 'is this tactic more likely to trigger backlash than to advance our goals?' is the single most important one, yet it seems to be rarely asked"
nytimes.com/2024/11/16/opi…
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@SpencerHakimian Really respect your analysis Spencer. Please come over to Blue Sky. Less of a "troll fest" and much better for nuanced discussions. BTW - I'm actually not 100% dead set against Tarriffs in all cases. Would love to engage in wonky debate over there
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U.S. could tariff China all it wanted.
China will just make up the balance via RoW.
Tariffs would be a one way losing bet for American consumers.
And then, eventually, U.S. will need to make up the lost volume via places like Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Indonesia - since it would be way too costly to produce the majority of Chinese goods in the United States.
Tariffs are really bad. Full stop.
Spencer Hakimian@SpencerHakimian
China’s trade surplus is set to hit $1T in 2024. If the U.S. tariffs Chinese goods, China will just sell them to the RoW that isn’t tariffing them. U.S. isn’t 50% of global GDP anymore. Bully ball doesn’t work the same when there’s other big fish in the pond.
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@MikeRGlenn You may be right about BlueSky, time will tell - that also describes the mirror image of this site
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IMO, #BlueSky as the left-wing/progressive version of X, the Artist Formally Known as Twitter, will be as successful as the right-wing/conservative versions. In other words, not very. It'll be another ideological echo chamber where you won't be confronted by views you don't like.
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It seems to me Pete Hegseth has written a lot about his right-wing views and there's no need to analyze his tattoos to form an opinion about him.
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@ggreenwald Thanks Glenn! Of course if we end up with Kash Patel, it will be 100X worse than Mike Rogers for anyone concerned about US Security State and its surveillance and politicized abuses. Did you honestly think you'd get a civil libertarian from these guys? Seriously?
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Anyone who appoints Mike Rogers to run the FBI - after he's arguably been the single most ardent, blind and extremist defender of the US Security State and its surveillance and politicized abuses - should forfeit forever any claim to be interested in combatting those agencies:
Fox News@FoxNews
Mike Rogers in consideration for FBI chief after meeting in Mar-a-Lago with Trump transition team, sources say trib.al/vyjREvK
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@joshtpm @umichvoter @ECaliberSeven @BruneElections @OryxMaps @ChazNuttycombe @AlanIAbramowitz @ElectProject @DrewLinzer @Nate_Cohn @baseballot @ryanmatsumoto1 @WisVoter @ForecasterEnten @electionsmith Need all you folks on BlueSky. Hitting critical mass right now!
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If you're on this list and you're on bluesky can you let me know in this thread?
@umichvoter @ECaliberSeven @BruneElections @OryxMaps @ChazNuttycombe @AlanIAbramowitz @ElectProject @DrewLinzer @Nate_Cohn @baseballot @ryanmatsumoto1 @WisVoter @ForecasterEnten @electionsmith @greggiroux @admcrlsn @JMilesColeman @geoffreyvs @Redistrict @williamjordann @jennifereduffy @JacobRubashkin @DavidNir @downballotnews @PollsAndVotes @RalstonReports @Garrett_Archer @Taniel @aedwardslevy @amyewalter @gelliottmorris @DavMicRot @lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_
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One week into the transition and Trump has already created an extraordinary scandal.
Simon Rosenberg@SimonWDC
Trump, who raped a woman in a department store dressing room and was a close friend of Jeffrey Epstein, is trying to make a Member of Congress about to get sanctioned by Congress for allegedly having sex with underage women THE ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES.
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