Ariel Edwards-Levy

@wexleresq @erinlschumaker I am

@aedwardslevy @erinlschumaker I’m on bluesky and I wish you were too🦋 @wexleresq.bsky.social

this guy should be asked for comment about every news story regardless of topic npr.org/2024/10/10/nx-…

@EricColumbus Editors might balk at 1,500 words, but there's a little bit of it in the linked piece!

@aedwardslevy I would read the 1500+ word version of this tweet!

(The one addendum I'd put on this is that the degree to which framing matters varies considerably by issue, and the mere presence of that volatility -- and how it manifests -- can itself say a lot about strength of opinion and how people are approaching the issue.)

@joshtpm @umichvoter @ECaliberSeven @BruneElections @OryxMaps @ChazNuttycombe @AlanIAbramowitz @ElectProject @DrewLinzer @Nate_Cohn @baseballot @ryanmatsumoto1 @WisVoter @ForecasterEnten @electionsmith I'm there, same handle

If you're on this list and you're on bluesky can you let me know in this thread? @umichvoter @ECaliberSeven @BruneElections @OryxMaps @ChazNuttycombe @AlanIAbramowitz @ElectProject @DrewLinzer @Nate_Cohn @baseballot @ryanmatsumoto1 @WisVoter @ForecasterEnten @electionsmith @greggiroux @admcrlsn @JMilesColeman @geoffreyvs @Redistrict @williamjordann @jennifereduffy @JacobRubashkin @DavidNir @downballotnews @PollsAndVotes @RalstonReports @Garrett_Archer @Taniel @aedwardslevy @amyewalter @gelliottmorris @DavMicRot @lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_

What did the U.S. public hear about Trump and Harris during the campaign, from @aedwardslevy based on the weekly @CNN/@ssrs_research/@verasight_data election surveys: cnn.com/2024/11/10/pol…

Wrote something about what "the polls" can actually tell us about this election: cnn.com/2024/11/01/pol…

Our final pre-election Breakthrough, on what Americans actually say they heard, read and saw about each of the candidates heading into the campaign's close: cnn.com/2024/11/03/pol…

anyway, if you want to see a ridiculously niche joke assigning different survey sample frames to different holidays come follow me on bluesky

@DemFromCT skepticism is always good, but I guess my fundamental position is that our political discourse would not be *better* if e.g. we did not have consistent, well-outside-MoE survey data on the level of opposition to overturning Roe

@aedwardslevy you're right polls can tell us things way beyond horse race but I've come to mistrust how they are used and bring skepticism to some of the findings.

@DemFromCT the article is not about ballot tests

@aedwardslevy if they're right (see 1980, see 1948)

re: bsky, can confirm this is true (or, at least, they're more frequent, which may or may not be the same thing)

When a research team from CNN, Georgetown and UMich asked Americans what they've read/seen/heard about Trump earlier this month, "lies" was the most common answer. cnn.com/2024/10/19/pol…

still on bluesky with the same username, fyi

the first ballots in the 2024 presidential election have now been cast as james bond

@aedwardslevy Would you describe your opinion of Halloween candy as flavorable or unflavorable?

there's some sort of bad Generic Haunted House Ballot joke here

I'm really glad to be working on this project, because I see so much speculation about what election news is actually getting through to the public...and we get a chance to just ask them each week!

not saying I am off to anything less than a fully alert start this morning but I did somehow misread the name "stephen" and briefly wondered if a "step hen" was your spouse's pet chicken

Latest from the Breakthrough project, tracking what news Americans actually say they're hearing, reading and seeing about the candidates: cnn.com/2024/10/13/pol…