@RyanReeves_ @turtlebay_io @atelicinvest @optionsly Would you rather have 15% 5 yr earnings yield and say 25% returned or a 12% yield today that’s flat over 5 years but pays out more like 60% of purchase price?
English
AnonValueInvestor
248 posts
@turtlebay_io @atelicinvest @optionsly When you add those two numbers, what do you find is a very attractive “score”?
English
Ackshully - it does the exact opposite. It makes it much more likely that you'll lose valuation discipline entirely.
Kirk Simon@KirkSimon9
It's psychological, but investors should think more about earning yields than P/Es. When you say something has a 33x P/E = 3% earnings yield and a 10x P/E = 10% earnings yield. You need a lot more growth for a long time to get a 10% return from a 3% earnings yield stock (7% perpetual growth) vs 0% for the 10x P/E stock. Using earnings yields likely leads to better valuation discipline.
English
@rockcreekfreak Thoughts on 2 topics: Chances that Marsden “works” in a meaningful way? What about upside on multi lats around Atlee?
English
The lunatic liberals have no answer for this.
A look at Hemisphere Energy's oil production through time, grouped by field and year drilled.
The polymer flood at the two Atlee Buffalo pools continues to be resilient, allowing them to fund new ventures along with shareholder returns.
$HME.V
English
@PythiaR @Biohazard3737 Would your view change if they were earning say 7% unlev yield on cost with 40-50% fixed rate debt? And pre-tax income shielded by deprec for a long time? Even without huge rent growth, that outperforms avg equities index no? (Obv this may have to be RE in a diff city)
English
@AnonValue @Biohazard3737 I live in a city where cap rates are like 3%, and the buildings are all old so yes, largely land value.
English
I made two LP investments in real estate in my life (both recommended by my wife's wealth advisor for diversification purposes and allegedly managed by top developers and operators).
This is the 2019 vintage multi-family investment that's performing ok. (The other one was a complete write off).
$330M in equity invested. $1.2M in quarterly investment income. Arguably, that's better than a loss. But then, $1M of that goes towards management fees. LPs are left with $100k.
Anonymous biotech CEO@CorpShark
@Biohazard3737 I was invested in real estate LPs. Have spent the last ten years trying to get out. If you ask me about the opportunity cost of that capital, I weep
English
@PythiaR @Biohazard3737 Wait, that’s 250m of equity value? So throwing off 68bps in yield? Are these mostly land or development deals that aren’t fully stabilized? Why wouldn’t stabilized deals be throwing off 5-7% pretax at minimum on tot cost? And then better on equity portion plus tax shield?
English
Rich guys like to own buildings but when you dig into the actual economics of it they suck a lot of the time.
I have a client with $250m of RE and she's getting like ~$1.7m of pre-tax income to her off it a year, net of costs, her accounting/tax people she has to hire as it's multiple CRE properties etc.
Absolute travesty, could have bought the S&P and gone to the beach, employed nobody, and been worth 2x what she is today.
English
@Zerosumgame33 Is the ex ILUC for soybean oil active / real time monetized at that level? Thought it still needed to get modified or passed vs original (and lower) PTC for soybeans?
English
@shawngorham Thoughts on it fading / turning yellow from sun exposure over time?
English
We epoxy most our flip garage floors - I do 8-12 epoxy jobs a year and refer another 6 or so...
I pay $4- $5 a foot or $1600- $2000 per garage floor depending on the prep.
I find it to be a high ROI on a flip project
English
@superintoit @shawngorham What kind of letter? What was gist of it? Wondering if this would work in high end residential area with very low turnover?
English
@shawngorham I have 7 properties in Hawaii
Zero were on MLS
More opportunities are lined up
I also sent letters to 5 neighboring lots. 4 said yes to below market offers
English
I own land in Joshua Tree. For every single parcel I own, I own the one next door.
After I bought a parcel, I would immediately send an offer to the parcel next door (for lower than I just paid)
Every single one of them took my offer.
BowTiedBroke@BowTiedBroke
If you want to invest in real estate, you will RARELY find an active listing on Zillow that makes sense from an investment standpoint now. I just closed on the last land deal I think I’m doing for awhile. 10 acres for $56K. Has road access, electricity right at prop boundary, insane views. It connected to my main prop where retreat center is going. I’ve now bought 14 land tracts for 700+ acres…and only THREE have been from active listings. Those 3 led me to meeting neighboring parcel owners over the past 6 yrs and just planting the seed of “Hey, if you ever want to sell, call me first”. Eventually I got every tract I wanted to put the puzzle together for my land (well, except one. He wants $30K/acre for his and I ain’t payin that after getting spoiled with $3-$5K per acre purchases). I guess the moral of the story is: Don’t look for active listings if you’re looking to buy land. Build the relationships, plant a seed and follow up on occasion. (iPhone pic from the land tract I just closed on last week)
English
@ShaleTier7 Would read 50 pages of indepthy history and analysis on Spur! What a company..
English
@follard How do economics change on a larger / higher end home? Say 4k sq ft and home price in the 2.5-5m range? (the ultra nice neighborhoods on W side of Austin). How much do actual construction costs per ft change? Assuming you already bought the land
English
It seems almost impossible make money building a single family home on an infill lot in Austin right now. The quick math on an 1,800 square foot home that sells for $1.2 million:
Land: $450,000
Site Prep: $25,000
Soft Costs: $50,000
Construction ($225 psf): $405,000
Financing, Insurance, Tax: $60,000
Broker Commission (5%): $60,000
Total Cost: $1,050,000
Potential Profit: $150,000
The risk? Massive. $12k / month in fully loaded interest payments once the build is complete.
120 days to get under contract and close? There's a third of your profit... gone.
Cost overruns on your project? Cooked.
Why is land so expensive right now? Why does every new development project have 2-3 homes being built on that lot?
Economics. It's nearly impossible to make money unless you are building 3 structures on a single family lot. Land owners know this and it's priced in.
Expect fewer and fewer single spec homes on single family lots in the future.
English
Now that I've corrected my PM mistakes, my focus will now shift to building a process to identify "easy shorts". Given my portfolio is mostly long right now, getting good at shorts will be massively value-accretive/creative.
English
In the largest account I manage:
+14.51% YTD
2.5 Sharpe
4.1 Sortino
Max drawdown 6.46% vs QQQ at 11.7%
0.50 correlation and 0.35 beta to QQQ
This is a huge improvement from prev years. I've always been good at picking stocks, but my PM skills were awful. I think I've fixed it.
English
@EconomPic @tangentstyle Why still prefer short TIPS vs longer duration? Thoughts on what’s best for retirees who think there is a lot of risk in equities today..
English
@Krokodil_V Will go back through. Def agree on the upside in nuclear but that's prob 3-4 years from really playing out? Until then, something like ~19x TTM EBIT and 30x earnings, right? Which isn't super cheap, especially after a ~flat 1H'26?
English
@AnonValue Haven't published my full consolidated thesis maybe I will at some point) but think I've shared enough for investors piece together what I see. I've written multiple long posts re refrigerants and nuclear / dynamics in $SOLS - search my profile! Open to DMs if further Qs.
English
Bull case, I think $SOLS can clear $200 just off RAS.
- Nuclear: assume greenfield doubles capacity, ASP in ~$60s, EBITDA margins ~38% (Orano levels). AES clears $11B EV at 22x EV/EBITDA ($CCJ and $LEU type multiples). Is there demand for this conversion? Per DOE estimates for nuclear ("the US would need access to 70K to 95K MT per year of UF6"). Again noting $SOLS atm does 9-10K MTU (can go up to 15K MTU) and they are the sole US source.
- Data center 2 phase cooling - $CC had previously sized the fluid as a $1.5B to $3B TAM 2 years ago; $SOLS / $CC at 50% share of this = $8.5B EV at 15x.
CCing smarter guys for their views too @EndThePods @CapstackCapital @leveraged_cat @MNTonX
Jester@JesterTrades
@Krokodil_V Whats your bullish target if 150$ is estimated conservatively? "Upside can come from renewal of UF6 LTAs at higher prices around 2030 + additional facilities + recovery in refrigerants / housing + data center direct 2-phase cooling opportunity" If those cases happen?
English
@jporkcalinalpha @evfcfaddict That’s good to know from IR, although my point is that their legal HQ isn’t in the US… Doesn’t seem like a straightforward case by the index rules even if they prob deserve it 🤷♂️
English
@AnonValue @evfcfaddict Via IR they are eligible starting in june. You just need to be listed for a year in the us and have your headquarters here
English
My favorite large cap atm:
- CEO with great track record (17% cagr when at sika/holcim) buying like crazy
- huge buybacks
- supply<demand
- oligopoly (monopoly in some regions)
- biggest player
- DD EPS growth for years to come
- S&P passive flows NTM
- <10x ev/ebitda
$AMRZ
Insider Monkey@insidermonkey
$1.4M Insider Buy: $AMRZ Chairman and CEO Jan Jenisch bought 28,417 shares on May 15 for $1.4M at an average of $49.53 (purchase made in CHF at 39.05). Direct post-buy stake: 1,724,999 shares. Plus 512,000 indirect via spouse. Total beneficial: ~2.24M shares (~$111M). Jenisch is one of the most credentialed building materials operators in the world. He was CEO of Sika 2012-2017, where he led the company into the Swiss Market Index. He then served as CEO of Holcim 2017-2024 and Chairman 2023-2025, transforming it into an industry-leading-margin business. He led the Amrize spin-off from Holcim in June 2025 and remains Chairman and CEO. 12+ year track record running SMI-listed building materials companies. Amrize is the former North American operations of Holcim, spun off in June 2025. The company is the #1 cement producer in North America with 19,000 employees and ~$12B+ in expected 2026 revenue. Two segments: Building Materials (cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt - ~70% of revenue) and Building Envelope (roofing and exterior systems - ~30%). End-market mix: 51% commercial, 28% infrastructure, 21% residential. Dual-listed on NYSE and SIX Swiss Exchange. Q1 2026 (April 29) showed the bifurcated story: Building Materials revenue +12.9% with adj EBITDA +41.7% and margin +230bps - driven by accelerating commercial demand from data centers and energy projects, double-digit cement and aggregates volume growth, and the PB Materials acquisition (West Texas aggregates leader, closed February 18). The Building Envelope (roofing) segment was the drag - revenue -9.8%, adj EBITDA -37.1% on soft roofing demand. Stock dropped 5% on the print. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance (revenue +4-6%, adj EBITDA +8-11%), announced a $1B buyback to begin post-Q1, declared a first quarterly dividend of $0.11 plus a special $0.44 dividend, and pointed to roofing volume recovery in H2 2026 as commercial projects that started in 2025 convert to envelope work. ~50% of IIJA infrastructure funding still to be deployed, commercial construction accelerating into data center and energy buildout, conservative 1.7x net leverage. Jenisch is buying 2 weeks after the post-Q1 dip with his entire 12-year operating record at building materials companies behind him.
English
@CaseyMericle @iononrecourse Obviously deals can go sidewise. But without a pref or return on capital hurdle, this is effectively like a 5% acq fee, no?
English
@AnonValue @iononrecourse So you’re wanting to invest in a poor deal?
Is that what you’re saying?
Please shoot me your phone number
English
For off-market CRE deals with modest repositioning/re-leasing, I'm becoming convinced a 95% investor/5% sponsor split, with no preferred return, and market rate fees is the best for aligned interests.
English
@Zerosumgame33 What is correct multiple for these assets? Why does it deserve to be high if so much depends on govt policy/regulation, always a risk? Why focus so much on NTM levered multiples instead of unlevered? Generally on board with 1-2 yrs of high returns but over the cycle matters.
English
@TMTLongShort @tobi Had been *ages* since I read any sci fi/fiction. But was a HUGE fan of will of the many books. Of these, which would you recommend next?
English
@tobi Gotta try Sun Eater, Red Rising, Licanius, Cradle, Lightbringer and Night Angel if you haven’t already Tobi
English
@atelicinvest @SliceTransverse @doodlestein This thread would be another example x.com/MattJMcClintoc…
Matt McClintock@MattJMcClintock
AI continues to make me want to shoot myself in the head. Claude is no different as it cannot accomplish even most basic task of pulling information from publicly available financial statements (10K of all things). Just one big circle jerk. x.com/MattJMcClintoc…
English
@atelicinvest @SliceTransverse @doodlestein Well ideally it uses whatever source material that it's pointed to (and doesn't "go rogue" on its own, since data quality can be so poor). And right now using the generic $20/month upgraded versions of gemini/claude, but not max. This seems like a simple, straightforward task tho
English