Chickadee Chai

Elon's companies are fusing into a mind boggling network Here is a graphing exercise to map how Elon's companies are (or will be) interconnected via value transfers. This is a very dense network - the output of one company becomes the input for another. I do not think the word "compounding" does justice to the network effects that get unleashed into this multidimensional flywheel. For example: -Grok integrated across Tesla to power in-car assistants, Optimus task planning, and eventually FSD decision-making -Optimus and Cybertruck get shipped via Starship to Mars -Neuralink enables Grok to port straight into people's brains and make them 1000x more useful -Boring tunnels reduce the congestion unleashed on public roads due to autonomy (if robotaxis drop cost per mile 5-10x, induced demand overwhelms surface roads) -Starlink's satellite network provides uninterrupted connectivity for Tesla's autonomous fleet and Optimus robots on Earth and Mars -Tesla's Dojo and xAI's clusters share workloads, making AI training cheaper and faster across both -Optimus bots, powered by Grok, will maintain and expand Starship fleets and build infrastructure on Mars, accelerating colonization efforts while reducing human risk -Boring Company builds underground bases on Mars via Starship deliveries, protecting humans from cosmic radiation --Tesla's energy tech (Megapacks, solar) powers Starlink ground stations, xAI data centers, and Mars ops It will be complicated to manage all of these value transfers via contracts and partnership agreements, and probably slow things down. Elon will fuse all these companies under one unified entity, harnessing their synergies to propel humanity toward a multi-planetary, AI-augmented civilization. @Gfilche, @wholemars, @SawyerMerritt, @farzyness @TeslaBoomerMama @thejefflutz @herbertong @elonmusk @stevenmarkryan @Teslaconomics, @wintonARK @skorusARK - what edges are missing?

@garrytan The rebuilds, Garry’s List, and skill tooling are great accelerators for skilled humans, but are not what I would characterize as standalone, AI-built businesses grabbing meaningful market share of a high value TAM.

@ChickadeeChai I’ve open sourced it all If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.

Ken Griffin doesn’t understand the ceiling just got raised. Some 20-something maybe reading this will build the cracked AI-human-computer-symbiosis team that will supersede his whole operation because he is too distracted about lowering cost Boil the ocean don’t cut your costs

@Acyn Yes. We need lots more people wearing hoodies walzing around in renaissance era inspired ballrooms

Fetterman: I think the reflecting pool and the ballroom are entirely appropriate. America is turning 50 years old. Why would we want to make sure everything looking great. We need a ballroom.

@garrytan What have you built (that is shareholder accretive, net of all these compute costs)?

The biggest alpha leak of 2026 is that you can tokenmax $10k/mo with OpenClaw/Hermes + GBrain and get the AI that everyone will have in 2028 for $100/mo, but you can get it now, and that is the biggest single unlock you can have vs your competition

@IdealGrower @nerdalert @TeslaBoomerMama @bradsferguson They are right more times than they are wrong. And that’s how you grow wealth. But yes - cybertruck design was a damn stupid move.

That sounds like Tesla is always right, we just don't understand it. Look at Cybertruck. They announced it They had reservations They bragged about it They took much longer than they said it would take. They never delivered at the promised price (even inflation-adjusted) They produce numbers so small that they don't even afford a separate line in the earnings reports They made a huge CAPEX that cost shareholders Nobody knows if that CAPEX will come back Share price is drifting, partially due to CT. This is one example. Now look at Optimus Now look at Solar Roof as Matt said Now look at FSD Now look at Robotaxi Now look at Semi and all its delays Now look at Europe sales of cars It is an awesome company with massive potential. They are not dependable and IMHO that's why the market has shifted: It used to be: "Let's put a price on potential" (350 P/E) That didn't work. Now it is: "Let's see the earnings and financials, and if you can show us that your numbers fit the price, we are ready to buy more and accept a lot higher price." I am a shareholder, but still have to chuckle at Catie Wood constantly changing teh year when the 5-year research reaches teh $2600 price level they started predicting in 2019. Is it lying? Not sure. Might depend on the definition. I think it is a severe loss of trust.

There's probably no topic I hate more than Tesla Twitterverse drama, but I have been a bit triggered by the disagreements between @TeslaBoomerMama and @bradsferguson recently. Here's my unedited take.

@bradsferguson Ah! now I understand why @farzyness jumped to your defence. Next time please disclose your conflicts guys, this is amateur hour. You should also publish your covered call activity, like an etf does.

The question is not whether Tesla should spend $1+ billion per year on ads… its trying it out at a much smaller scale and seeing what works to get Tesla a return of $2 or more per dollar spent on ads. Then you scale the methods that work. Up to the amounts that still have a return on investment. Businesses do ads that have a return on investment. For example, Rebellionaire advertises with @farzyness and @LimitingThe, we make more because of that activity than we pay either creator. Placements that don’t earn more than 2x what we spend, we stop doing.

@_FORAB @TeslaBoomerMama I think Musk introduced Trump. He knows them much better than Trump does.

马斯克这下真牌面了。 摄影师的近照，证实离特朗普最近的商业代表，为特斯拉、SpaceX、X 平台的老板马斯克。 同时，特朗普总统还介绍马斯克，给中国副主席韩正，双方友好地打了招呼。

You have a private chauffeur for $99/month. Pause and reflect on that. Then take some of the $9901 you saved and get the damn camera cleaned. Im sorry but this level of entitlement is just ridiculous. You have no appreciation for how many complex problems had to be solved so that you can complain about a $77 charge.

@jackthejaws Pardon? 😅 I’m just advocating for customers and doing so very calmly.

Ok, Karen.

@joecarlsonshow Absolutely. We need those bones in order to feel strong as a nation. And we cannot have NYC taxing empty houses that could be put to more productive use. nothing says 'thriving city' like a museum of empty rooms and ancient skeletons.

I've liked Ken Griffin ever since he paid $44 million to prevent a dinosaur from leaving the US. Wealthy foreigners were trying to buy the dino and ship it to their country. Griffin outbid them and later said: “Apex was born in America and is going to stay in America”. Apex is now in an Arkansas museum. This is what wealthy Americans should be doing, investing, growing wealth, creating jobs, and protecting our assets. The fact that he is now publicly standing up against Zohran's class warfare tactics is completely necessary. Zohran poked the wrong bear. The politicians say you shouldn't like him, but I don't care, I like him.

@lukeanderson_ @niccruzpatane It was a joke. But I have never seen an x that had perfect panel alignment either.

@ChickadeeChai @niccruzpatane The door isn’t fully shut you melt.

The last Tesla Model X ever produced. 😢

@SawyerMerritt @wholemars Kara Swisher owns them, figuratively speaking. It is very telling that they understand so many details that would normally make one bullish - and only disclose their in depth knowledge when they can use it against Tesla.

@wholemars What happened to The Verge? Why are they so anti tech now? They used to be more hopeful, fun and pro tech, and now all I see are negative articles and hate.

I feel like the writers at The Verge get stupider every week. What Elon said, in response to a thread about Nvidia Alpamayo, was that safe unsupervised self-driving required a training set somewhere on the order of 10 billion miles. The training set is videos of humans driving manually. Not miles of self-driving usage. You do not need 10 billion miles of self-driving usage, to have 10 billion miles of customer driving data. Tesla crossed that threshold long ago. That’s how Tesla was able to start deploying unsupervised FSD in January. 10 billion miles of self-driving usage has absolutely nothing to do with the size of the training set.

@wholemars Tesla’s number is based on a massive base. Lucid (and Rivian’s) numbers are tiny sample sizes.

U.S. loyalty rates by make, February 2026 1. Tesla — 61.1% 2. Subaru — 60.5% 3. Toyota — 59.9% 4. Ferrari — 59.7% 5. Honda — 58.2% 6. Ford — 57.8% 7. Lucid — 57.9% 8. Chevrolet — 56.7% 9. Nissan — 55.7% 10. Mercedes-Benz — 54.7% 11. BMW — 52.9% 12. Kia — 52.9% 13. Hyundai — 51.7% 14. Lexus — 50.4% 15. Mazda — 48.3% 16. GMC — 47.8% 17. Porsche — 46.7% 18. Rolls-Royce — 46.2% 19. Lincoln — 45.9% 20. Volvo — 44.5% 21. Acura — 44.2% 22. Land Rover — 43.9% 23. Lamborghini — 43.6% 24. Jeep — 43.5% 25. Volkswagen — 43.2% 26. Cadillac — 41.2% 27. Aston Martin — 40.8% 28. Audi — 38.0% 29. Ram — 38.8% 30. Buick — 36.0% 31. Genesis — 36.1% 32. Mitsubishi — 34.3% 33. Polestar — 34.9% 34. Infiniti — 31.5% 35. Bentley — 30.0% 36. Rivian — 28.6% 37. McLaren — 25.0% 38. INEOS — 24.7% 39. Chrysler — 21.4% 40. Alfa Romeo — 20.2% 41. VinFast — 20.5% 42. Lotus — 16.3% 43. Jaguar — 15.8% 44. Dodge — 15.5% 45. Maserati — 11.7% 46. Fiat — 3.3% 47. Mini — 0.0% 48. Smart — 0.0% 49. Fisker — 0.0%

@robinhanson @bryan_caplan Palm Digital Assistant.

@bryan_caplan PDA?

Tons of PDAs in Spain. Lack of romantic interest does not explain low Spanish fertility!

@Vulpescap Tbf I’ve never seen @patrickc with a tan, so he probably knew about this risk

SF bro "unleashes AI agents on his genome" and finds "the most useful medical advice he's ever received". 🤯 The advice: he has a predisposition to melanoma The SF bro's skin:

the risk he’s missing is exactly what his own logic predicts: those same researchers, who already do more with less, would now get to do far more with unrestricted top tier GPUs. Handing China the Ferrari doesn’t just maintain parity vs USA … it supercharges their edge, dramatically raising the odds that the next Mythos-level model (with offensive cyber capabilities) emerges from a Chinese lab first, before the US can train, patch, and deploy defenses. Using Jensen’s own argument against him: if scarcity made them smarter, abundance will make them unstoppable.

Distilled recap of the back-and-forth with Jensen on export controls: Dwarkesh: Wouldn’t selling Nvidia chips to China enable them to train models like Claude Mythos with cyber offensive capabilities that would be threats to American companies and national security? Jensen: First of all, Mythos was trained on fairly mundane capacity and a fairly mundane amount of it by an extraordinary company. The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China. Dwarkesh: With that, could they eventually train a model like Mythos? Yes. But the question is, because we have more FLOPs, American labs are able to get to this level of capabilities first. Furthermore, even if they trained a model like this, the ability to deploy it at scale matters. If you had a cyber hacker, it's much more dangerous if they have a million of them versus a thousand of them. Jensen: Your premise is just wrong. The fact of the matter is their AI development is going just fine. The best AI researchers in the world, because they are limited in compute, also come up with extremely smart algorithms. DeepSeek is not an inconsequential advance. The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation. Dwarkesh: Currently, you can have a model like DeepSeek that can run on any accelerator if it's open source. Why would that stop being the case in the future? Jensen: Suppose it optimizes for Huawei. Suppose it optimizes for their architecture. It would put others at a disadvantage. As AI diffuses out into the rest of the world, their standards and their tech stack will become superior to ours because their models are open. Dwarkesh: Tesla sold extremely good electric vehicles to China for a long time. iPhones are sold in China. They didn't cause some lock-in. China will still make their version of EVs, and they're dominating, or smartphones, they're dominating. Jensen: We are not a car. The fact that I can buy this car brand one day and use another car brand another day is easy. Computing is not like that. There's a reason why x86 still exists. There's a reason why Arm is so sticky. These ecosystems are hard to replace. Dwarkesh: It's just hard to imagine that there's a long-term lock-in to the Chinese ecosystem, even if they have this slightly better open-source model for a while. American labs port across accelerators constantly. Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, they're run on Trainium, they're run on TPUs. There are so many things you can do, from distilling to a model that's well fit for your chips. Jensen: China is the largest contributor to open source software in the world. China's the largest contributor to open models in the world. Today it's built on the American tech stack, Nvidia’s. Fact. All five layers of the tech stack for AI are important. The United States ought to go win all five of them. in a few years time, I'm making you the prediction that when we want American technology to be diffused around the world—out to India, out to the Middle East, out to Africa, out to Southeast Asia—on that day, I will tell you exactly about today's conversation, about how your policy ... caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.

@jsrailton @citizenlab You can tell where many homeowners sleep by doing a Google search.

BREAKING: You checked the weather this morning. And you just told a surveillance company where you sleep. Meet #Webloc, used by ICE, cops & foreign govs to track 500m+ phones. No warrant required. Our latest @citizenlab investigation + how to protect yourself 🧵/1

@mehdirhasan @ireallyhateyou @piersmorgan Also- it looks like press tv invited him in March - have you looked into that?

@mehdirhasan @ireallyhateyou @piersmorgan He’s not being absurd - just look at how badly you’re getting ratioed on your own thread. The public thinks you’re wrong, but unfortunately you need to win the argument… heaven forbid we sully the brand.

On the issue of free speech, @piersmorgan happens to be undeniably correct here: