David Feldman

@hot_rails @igypham @jakozloski Ok my bad you're right. Survivor bias would be just looking at the couples that stayed together. It's a correlation, doesn't imply causation, because there could be a confounding variable

@DavidFe22353955 @igypham @jakozloski The independent variable not being random does not introduce survival bias. The study discusses the possible confounding mechanisms you mention, plus a good deal more.

Of unhappily married people who stayed together, two-thirds called the same marriage happy five years later. Of the very unhappy who stayed, nearly 8 in 10. Divorced individuals were no happier. Most rough patches are just patches. The rational move is usually to push through. Study: healthymarriageinfo.org/wp-content/upl…

@hot_rails @igypham @jakozloski To not have survival bias you'd need to randomly enforce who gets divorced and who doesn't. Maybe getting divorced makes you less happy like you're saying. Maybe people who fight to make a marriage work are more likely to be happy in the future. Both are probably true

@igypham @jakozloski It is literally not.

@AldenRiver79959 @NoFilterSkin Why'd you write this? It's vague. I have to assume you're probably just being racist. She has a good list here.

@NoFilterSkin Ask a white person.

HOW TO RAISE SIBLINGS WHO ACTUALLY LIKE EACH OTHER. By age, from a mother who grew up in a rivalry and refused to host one: 1. Ages 3 to 6:

@xxlmsxx @JonathanRoss321 Oh nice. Those reasons make sense! Yeah the app could probably use AI to generate a picture of what the combination of clothes would look like

@DavidFe22353955 @JonathanRoss321 I'm looking for a good inventory app. I'd use it to plan outfits, visualise different ways of wearing certain clothes without trying them on, also if it had stats on most used/least used which would be helpful. I have a lot of clothes, they're organised but an app would help

My girlfriend couldn't sleep last night. She wanted an app to inventory her clothes. Her phone was in the bedroom - she didn't want to wake me. So she built the app with Fable. Her first app. Building software was easier than fetching a phone. The domestic Sputnik moment.

@Spybef0rey0ubuy 2016 was before the AI scaling law paper, before the 2017 crypto boom. Almost nobody could predict that level of GPU demand. It's like knowing what $50B market cap company is guaranteed to be $5T in 10 yrs

This is what a decade of buying $NVDA instead of indexing looks like: Timeline $NVDA | $VOO 2016–2019: +610% | +35% 2016–2021: +1,740% | +100% 2016–2026: +16,100% | +340% If the goal is to build wealth, why do so many people settle for $VOO?

@pcshipp Is the expected value worth the marketing emails

Why do users hate login screens? Around 40% of my users drop off as soon as they reach the login screen. Is offering a guest mode the right solution? How do you solve this problem?

@DanielMiessler Good point. I wonder if long term this forces all AI models to be loss leaders. Then companies profit on packaging the compute, harness, and security/privacy?

@DavidFe22353955 Much bigger, because this hit actual pinnacle tier. And because the evidence indicates this will only continue.

Kimi K3 could trigger a crash of the US economy. - Current stock market = AI labs - Current economy = stock market - Chinese open source models equaling or exceeding pinnacle US models = a crash of the stock market - … danielmiessler.com/blog/kimi-k3-u…

@usr_bin_roygbiv Seems like you're angry about unemployed people?

unemployim have to convince themselves the economy is bad and they're not complete fucking losers and there's a genuine labor shortage doomersareretardedcommunists.com

@guylander1 @rprovilij @BoringBiz_ @rprovilij what's your response to this one?

@rprovilij @BoringBiz_ You’re using someone else’s copy-written art style as you pfp so you must agree

Peter Thiel explained perfectly why we are seeing a massive rise in socialism amongst millennials and young Gen Z

@TitusFrieling @RyanJDeRose @markessien Supply is less constrained than demand Demand side constraints: - Consumer time/attention - Consumer money - AIs ability to do the thing instead of software - Robotics grows software demand Supply side constraints: - Legal, regulatory, security needs in software - Compute

@RyanJDeRose @markessien Thankfully there is no similar constraint in software and other service industries

A coder getting AI is like a farmer getting a tractor and saying "oh wow, look how fast it tills my small plot! Now what used to take all day takes 30 minutes. I can relax for the rest of the day". What a tractor actually does is help the farmer till LARGER plots. It still takes all day - but you achieve more. Any farmer still tilling small plots will be out of business.

@Vishal_anton16 @MichaelArnaldi Find top devs to work for or work with. Just practicing you won't see your biggest gaps

@MichaelArnaldi Umm now tell me in the post AI, how should someone who’s early in their career become a top dev?

This will piss you off but it's true

@venturetwins Yeah gotta give him bigger projects. And Claude your own questions first

This post is about a marketing role, but could also apply to many engineering roles at big tech companies. And yet, they’re still meaningfully more productive than pre-AI…

@jonallie Yup. I've use Claude Code on low for the same reason. I've found effort levels need to match the size of the ask, or how precise you're trying to be. If the AI is good at a thing use high and let it work. If not, use low and keep a tight feedback loop

I had the weirdest experience today where GPT 5.5 was producing much worse code than I'm used to (complex and over engineered..full of useless helper functions replacing 3 lines of straightforward code). After getting increasingly frustrated, I finally noticed that I'd somehow ended up on "medium" reasoning instead of "low", and switching it back to low, and asking it to review the code it just wrote yielded a much better result.

@NataliaHEmanuel This is too blanket statement Imagine not seeing your kids for an additional 2 to 4 hrs a day, plus the extra toll on your body from sitting while driving. There's remote pros and cons, they have different impacts based on your life stage and how you live your life

I’ve been sharing research about how remote work hurts mental health. Getting lots of angry comments from folks who like WFH. A common critique of our research is that in other studies, participants say they like remote work. And many stay in remote positions. So people are voting with their feet, right? 🧵

@filippkowalski Yep pretty much. The dopamine used to come at the end Now it's all at the start, then the rest of the time is grinding through to make the last 10% good Our brains evolved for the first, struggle then reward

As a software dev, do you remember those times where you couldn't figure out something the entire day, went to sleep and handled it in 5 minutes the next day? I think that every software engineer used to have this pride and a sense of accomplishment when they managed to solve a hard task, issue, build a complicated but beautiful website, or animation. This is now gone, as anyone can do it by nagging the LLM long enough until they solve it... Ok, in some cases, you still need to know how to navigate the LLM, but tackling hard challenges is a different story now. The challenge, the dopamine is gone, so I guess we need to find it somewhere else:)

@vadi_ms @0rgest I'm sure you've seen this and thought about it but I've seen text prediction from jaw movements as well. Maybe both those combined could use much lower ultrasound power

@vadi_ms @0rgest Very cool! If people use this at work every day, they'll be using it 2000 hrs a year. For pregnancy, it's used a total of a couple hours, a few times in a life. Whatever you build hopefully can handle 1,000x to 10,000X the use :)

This is me talking to my computer without making a sound. After just a month of collecting data, our model is already approaching dictation in accuracy. We were surprised to see that it generalizes to unseen participants as well! (1/n)

@CharlieWalsham_ @tparsi This sounds like AI

Don’t be fooled. He’s paying attention, all right. It’s an act. He knows exactly what he’s doing. He knows who’s around him. He’s watching the defenders. He has eyes in the back of his head. Haaland hides in plain sight. He lulls defenders into the absurd belief that they don’t need to devote their full attention to him. And the moment they fall for it, he strikes. None of this is accidental. He’s one of a kind.

For 90% of the game, Haaland just lurks around. He hardly even pays attention to the ball. But then - out of a sudden - at the exact right moment, he awakens, scores a historic goal, and immediately goes back to lurking around. He cannot be replicated.